There’s a large part of me who wants to say nothing about this class because I’m “not a professional scout who gets paid money to evaluate players” (as I’ve been told repeatedly the last 72 hours) - so my default position should be to pull down Brad’s pants and give him a hand job for every single decision he makes. But I’ve put in too much time into this draft class to not at least finish the job I started this offseason.
| NUM | POS | PLAYER | RAS | PFF RANK | PFF22 | PFF21 | PFF20 | KCS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | HB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 8.07 | 34 | 82.6 | 88.4 | 83.2 | 8.17 |
I’ll preface this by repeating: I have two simple rules when it comes to running backs - I wouldn’t draft one in the first round and I wouldn’t give one a second contract unless they’re generational.
That being said, it’s not difficult to see why Brad & Dan love Jamhry Gibbs. He’s the definition of lightning in a bottle - every time he touches the ball, there’s a chance he can take it to the house. Someone on staff (Dan, Brad, Ben? I can’t remember) talked about wanting RBs who make people miss during the off-season. Gibbs can make that happen with his vision, twitch & cutting-ability at full speed, and surprising ability to bounce of tacklers and power for more yards.
Shades of Alvin Kamara or Marshall Faulk, Gibbs is an all-around back who is not only electric in the running game, but has the receiving chops to be one of the best in the business in the NFL. There is nothing keeping him from lining up as a slot WR in the NFL. While not the biggest back, he seems to have a firm understanding of pass-protection and even though he’s not going to anchor one-on-one vs. most full-speed rushers he can do enough to slow down oncoming pass rush. He’s also a monster in the return game, should the Lions choose to utilize him in that capacity. Did I mention he LOVES football?
Getting into the data, I had him as a 8.17 on the KCS, which undoubtedly would’ve been higher if he did more at the combine as you would assume his agility testing would’ve raised his RAS (8.07). His KCS is the lowest of all the first round picks that Brad has made, but he does meet the PFF profile I outlined in Pt. 2 of my “Who is a ‘Brad Holmes’ draft pick” series.
Even if you’re like me and you don’t love the positional value of a RB at 12 - one that even some people had above Bijon Robinson. It’s hard not to love the player and what he will add to an offense that is going to need a pick-up on the receiving end with Chark gone and Williams missing the first 6 games of the season.
| NUM | POS | PLAYER | RAS | PFF RANK | PFF22 | PFF21 | PFF20 | KCS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | LB | Jack Campbell | 9.98 | 39 | 91.9 | 69.8 | 83.4 | 9.59 |
Again, let me preface by saying that taking an off-ball linebacker at pick 18 who runs a 4.6 40 isn’t what I would do in today’s NFL.
Now that we’ve got that out of the way, there is very little to not love about Jack Campbell’s game. This may be the most Dan Campbell pick of any pick ever made by this regime, ever. He checks all of their boxes. When Dan was on the Rich Eisen show and said that he had a man-crush a guy or two, there is little doubt that he was speaking directly on Jack Campbell.
Campbell is a big, fast, “throwback”-type traditional MIKE linebacker who has great anticipation and instincts. He’s a 2x captain at the college level (and 2x at the HS level) who very much fits the Lions mentality and culture to his very core. He’s an all-effort, all-the-time type player who plays from snap-to-whistle who consistently finds himself in the right place at the right time. Not only does he seem to be able to always find his way to the ball carrier in the run, he also always seems to find himself in the right position in the passing game (3 INTs, 15 PDs over his final 3 years).
Another player who just simply loves football, coaches raved about his film study habits, which makes sense, because as he said in his presser - he approaches football the same way he approaches school. That led him to an Academic Heisman. He is the type of player who you will never have to worry about putting in the work.
The data? Jack Campbell was the #2 ranked player in KCS in the draft, trailing only Bijon Robinson. His final PFF score (91.9) and his RAS (9.98) were obviously near or at the top of his position.
| NUM | POS | PLAYER | RAS | PFF RANK | PFF22 | PFF21 | PFF20 | KCS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | TE | Sam LaPorta | 9.02 | 43 | 80.1 | 72.3 | 75 | 8.52 |
I’ll preface Sam by saying this pick caught me mostly off guard because of how myself (and many others here) thought that the regime valued the TE position after trading Hockenson and having Wright, Mitchell, and Zylstra perform so well. I expected them to add to the room (especially after the Foster Moreau story broke), but with such a deep class at TE and the insinuated lack of value given to the room, I expected it to be later in the draft.
Another team captain, Sam LaPorta adds to the culture the Lions are continuing to build here. Per Dane Brugler’s “The Beast”, LaPorta returned for his senior season at Iowa specifically because he wanted to be a team captain and that his on-field production is a “direct reflection of the work he puts in”, saying his compete level is like George Kittle’s.
LaPorta does draw similarities to another Iowa TE that was drafted highly by the Lions, but a major difference between the two is LaPorta’s ability to generate YAC - which is something that Hockenson struggled with. LaPorta has the agility and twitch that Hockenson never had and that allows him to beat the LBs regularly that Hock couldn’t, while still having the size and strength to beat NBs - which shows in him being the only TE in 2022 with 20+ forced missed tackles.
He does need some work as a blocker and there were some drop issues (which Brad directly said he wasn’t concerned about), but overall he’s a gifted athlete that will create mismatches with opponent defenses based on his blend of size and speed.
The data shows he close to being in-line with what we’ve seen from 2nd round picks. His 9.02 RAS is close to the 9.22 average we’ve seen in the 2nd round and his 8.52 KCS is better than Levi’s was in 2021, but less than Paschal’s 9.35 in 2022. He makes 3/3 of players that fit the PFF mold I noted in my Pt. 2 post a few months ago.
| NUM | POS | PLAYER | RAS | PFF RANK | PFF22 | PFF21 | PFF20 | KCS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | S | Brian Branch | 5.27 | 15 | 89.5 | 76.6 | 72.4 | 7.11 |
Preface: WHY WAS BRIAN BRANCH STILL AVAILABLE AT 45?!? This is the first pick for the Lions where I have absolutely nothing negative to say about. Absolute steal.
Branch was pretty much the consensus #1 safety in this draft and pre-combine, was regularly projected by almost everyone to go in the first round. I’m not sure if there were any other concerns than his not-so-great testing at the combine (5.27 RAS - though his RAS at CB position is 5.72), but the fact that he was means it’s an absolute win for Holmes.
Branch fits exactly what the Lions are trying to do on defense. He’s a coach on the field and his football IQ is off the charts. He’s versatile, he’s instinctive, he’s sticky in coverage, he’s physical, he’s a competitor. He seems to be all the things that the Lions secondary lacked last season and made sure to add this offseason and now he gets to learn behind one of the best in the business at the same position in CJGJ.
Although he didn’t test well, you don’t see a lack of athleticism show up too often on tape, even in the talented SEC. He’s incredibly well-rounded and is most likely going to the Lions long-term solution at NB for years to come.
Branch is a bit of an outlier in the data because of his poor combine numbers (as stated above), but his production is off the charts and makes him the 4th of 4 players who hit the PFF prerequisites from my Pt. 2. post.
| NUM | POS | PLAYER | RAS | PFF RANK | PFF22 | PFF21 | PFF20 | KCS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | QB | Hendon Hooker | 0 | 47 | 90.8 | 84.4 | 81.5 | 4.54 |
Preface: If you’re going to take a backup QB with developmental upside, this is the right area in a draft to do it. Can’t complain about positional value there. Age? College system? Those are legitimate concerns.
The Lions have finally added to their QB room. Brad Holmes repeatedly said this offseason that he was going to do this and he wasn’t happy about how the last couple seasons played out in terms of having a capable QB behind Goff, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that he took one.
Positively speaking, Hooker is what you want out of a backup QB. He’s got natural pass throwing skills, throws a pretty deep ball, has pocket presence, and is athletic enough to hurt you with his legs. He’s a former team captain, who no one has ever questioned his work ethic or passion. He’s another culture fit at the most important position on the team.
There are some question marks to his game/profile, obviously, or he wouldn’t have lasted until the 3rd round. There’s some serious questions about why he couldn’t do what he did at Tennessee while he was at Virginia Tech. He wasn’t nearly the QB there that he was at TEN, and there is some concern to be had about a guy not playing well until he’s much older and more experienced than his peers. He is also coming from a very non-NFL styled offense which while isn’t a deal-breaker, it’s harder to see his projection to the NFL knowing he wasn’t asked to nearly as much as he’ll need to be able to do at the next level.
However, there is no rush for Hooker to compete for the starting job. He has plenty of time to rehab from his ACL. Plenty of time to learn from Goff, Brunell, and Johnson. If the Lions hit with this, they may have their future starter waiting in the wings when Goff’s contract is up in a couple years. If it’s not a complete hit, there’s a good chance, they’re still getting a valuable backup QB that should be much better than the Boyle’s, Blough’s, and Sudfeld’s we’ve had in the past few seasons.
Data? Incomplete. Hooker never tested so his KCS and RAS aren’t fleshed out. He is however, 5/5 on the PFF requirements from Pt. 2.
| NUM | POS | PLAYER | RAS | PFF RANK | PFF22 | PFF21 | PFF20 | KCS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | DT | Brodric Martin | 2.14 | 163 | 71.9 | 67 | 58.2 | 4.67 |
Preface: Deep breaths. Deep breaths. The Lions know more than you do.
This is the first pick the Lions made that completely came out of no where and I had to say “Oh, god, who is this?!” I think we all thought that the Lions would address DT at some point during the draft and I would venture that most of us had them pegged for a 3T, not a war daddy NT (though I know there was some discussion about this earlier in the year). It sent me into a panic to watch tape on a guy I wasn’t familiar with. And to give up all that capital to move up to do so!
That being said, I watched 4 games of his 2022 season and I was like with a “WTF are they seeing here?” A 6’5" 340lb monster with 35 arms should be cleaning house in Conference USA competition, but when I watched the tape, he just didn’t. Because of his size and his penchant for playing straight up, he lost leverage quickly on guys 5 inches and 40 lbs lighter than him. And even though he had the size and length to adjust and not “lose” the rep, I rarely saw him hand counter and use any sort of technique to win against guys he should be dominating. I was concerned to the point of “How much tape do I need to watch to see redeeming qualities?!”
Then @Thats2 told me to watch the senior bowl tape…WOW. He was like a different player. He absolutely manhandled Laing on 2 out of his first 3 snaps, he dominated another 1 on the other. He was using his hands and playing with leverage in a way I rarely saw out of him on his Western Kentucky tape. I have no other choice but to believe that he’s a guy who is raw and just needs to be coached up.
He’s 6’5", 340lbs and has 35" arms. You can’t teach that. You can teach leverage (though I would imagine by his senior year of college, this should be known), you can teach technique. He already has very good agility for a guy his side (which I did end up seeing on his 2022 tape). If the Lions can coach this kid up (and he’s already on record saying he’s receptive to and loves learning), this kid could be an absolute steal. Just watch his Shrine Bowl reps…like right now.
Data? Listen, NTs aren’t going to test well. You don’t expect them to. His RAS was 2.14, but who cares? His PFF data means he just misses the PFF guidelines the Lions have shown in the past, but just barely.
| NUM | POS | PLAYER | RAS | PFF RANK | PFF22 | PFF21 | PFF20 | KCS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | OL | Colby Sorsdal | 6.48 | N/A | 91.5 | 61.9 | 60.9 | 7.82 |
Preface: Who?! I had fully expected to Lions to address their glaring need at backup T. I had figured they would make a move for Jordan McFadden, who seemed to fit everything that the Lions were looking for and they had done a lot of pre-draft work on. Time to hit the tape.
The first you notice about the little-known prospect from William & Mary is that he absolutely dominates the competition at his level. Like…dominates. I said in a thread that Sorsdal’s dominance against lesser competition was exactly what I was looking for from Martin in his tape and didn’t see. He’s a big guy, 6’5" 304, but looks plenty athletic on tape. He tested well in his 3-cone and shuttle, as well, so it’s nice to see that line up.
Team captain? You betcha. He played mostly tackle, but it’s believed that he will be able to also move inside at the higher level, which is something that Brad Holmes made a point to mention during his post-draft presser regarding the Shrine Bowl. It’s not hard to see Sorsdal as a G/T combo who is able to move like the Lions ask their guards to do. He definitely has the athleticism to pull and to reach the second level in the run game.
While the data doesn’t jump out and say “That’s the pick!”, he tested well enough (6.48) for a guy his size - especially in the agility drills. While he didn’t reach the PFF markers because of his prior 2 seasons, in his final season, he graded out as PFFs #2 OT, only behind Cody Mauch and was their third best run-blocking grade at OT with 89.2.
| NUM | POS | PLAYER | RAS | PFF RANK | PFF22 | PFF21 | PFF20 | KCS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 219 | WR | Antoine Green | 8.68 | 322 | 74.8 | 62.5 | 56.5 | 8.08 |
Nothing to dislike about this pick at all. Was expecting an X receiving in some capacity in this draft. Green fits that need.
He’s 6’2", 200lbs with 4.47 speed - he’s got the size and speed that you’re looking for in an X receiver. While he’s most certainly not going to make you forget about DJ Chark or Jamison while he’s suspended, he does add to the WR room something they really don’t have without Chark.
He performed well at UNC, averaging 19 YPC and scoring 15 TDs, with a majority of his production coming in his final two seasons. Watching him, he seems to do most of his damage over the top - he wants to beat you with his speed. Doesn’t appear to be technically saavy or have the route-running chops to create seperation underneath, but that’s something that can be worked on and he has one of the best to learn from with Amon-Ra in the same room.
He’s got upside at a position of need and with Jamo and Berryhill’s suspensions, Cephus gone, and a need that really isn’t filled by the other Lions receivers, I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t have a 50/50 chance to make the roster out of camp.
The data says that this isn’t that surprising of a pick. Green came in with a 8.08 KCS, which is much higher than the 5.56 average for 7th round picks from Lions in the past. (Jermar Jefferson really skews this, though). He tested well at 8.68 and there’s not reason to believe that he can’t make an impact as a 4th-5th WR in the future or even as a #6/PS now.
Overall, I think that this was a pretty successful draft by Brad Holmes. You can’t argue with the quality of players that he got, specifically early, and even though he said that he doesn’t draft with a depth chart in mind, most of these positions came at what most would consider needs on the roster. We can argue positional value if we want - and I still stick to my guns on that. I have a conviction on certain positions being more valuable than others. However, it’s hard to look at the draft and not be happy with the PLAYERS/PEOPLE that the Lions added to the roster, regardless of position.
With that said, After probably what is close to 1000-1500 hours of film, spreadsheets, scouting reports, etc. I’m done with the 2023 draft class. (I can’t bring myself to deep dive the UDFAs - Spoiler: they’re good and a lot hit the data markers)
Now I need a couple weeks off before I start hitting the 2024 class… 
