Feel free to download for your self. Simply changing the “W/L” will adjust the total wins and losses for each category.
The current model is showing that 11 wins might not even be enough to get in.
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I think the Pack going to Denver is going to be a hard win. Same with CHI going to SFF and winning. It could be both of these teams go 1-2 the next three games if they manage a home/home split with each other.
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As I mentioned before, there ar is a small number of possibilities requiring ties where we can miss out with 11 wins…
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Nailed it ^
We also need Jimmy Harbaugh to come through and beat Philly on MNF
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Even if you flip the denver game:
Wont matter. They will just be the7 seed vs 3.
Chicago will go to 3.
You need BOTH things to happen.
Denver beating Green Bay
AND 9ers beating daBears.
Then the lions can get in with 11 wins.
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Lions best scenario is for the Packers to go 2-3 in their next 5 games.
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If the Lions win out I think they can take the Division. Big game next week.
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I don’t believe the Bears can beat San Francisco out there by the bay. They never do I believe the bears could have as many as three losses as long as the lions take care of business on that last game.
I just do not see the Bears winning in San Fran. I also don’t believe that the Packers will beat the Broncos or the Ravens. Time will tell but that model is way off with those games.
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If they win out, I’m confident they would win the division
I have Lions vs Bears week 18 SNF
Winner wins the Divison hosts GB
Loser is out of the playoffs !
If they win out, then I think we have a real shot for the 2nd seed too.
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In the simulations I ran, the (division winning) Lions finished with the 3rd seed almost every time.
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Not true, just ran this scenario in the ESPN Playoff machine and Lions get in as 7 seed
Lions
Win: Steelers, VIkings, Bears
GB wins: Bears, Ravens, Vikings
Bears wins: Packers, Niners, Browns
Now, it also requires one of the NFC West teams (Niners or Hawks) to shit the bed and miss the playoffs with 10 wins
But point is it is another scenario where we get in with 11 wins even though the Bears and Packers are ahead of us
the “new” Bears might do more than we believe, the old Bears? no way.
The freakin NFCW looks poised to take 3 playoff spots.
I’ve conceded the division at this point… I believe the most likely scenario for the Lions to get into the playoffs is GB beats the Bears twice, that makes week 18 a win or go home game for the 7th seed. That’s assuming the Lions go 2-1 down the stretch
3-1 down the stretch?
2-1 with the Bears game win or go home
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We are winning out! It starts with beating the Rams next week!
The Dallas game will end up being our springboard game to a Super Bowl run!
We’re built for this 