Regarding the trade chart and value, is there a difference reflected in this chart for trades made pre-draft and those made on draft day?
Lol “ we should get a first, 2 2nds, their first next year and Tom Brady for moving down 8 spots.” sure.
A first and third is what I’d be asking for if trading with the patriots. Research? Look no further than the team that traded up one spot ahead of us. To drop from seven to fifteen to give up a potential top 4 QB prospect that very well could go number three overall (and not talking Mac Jones) very well deserved a future first at least.
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THE COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE TO 10 YEARS OF FIRST ROUND TRADES
From 2015 but is a great read none the less.
Just a few examples of trades that involve picks close to the Lions selections of (#7, #41).
May give a better idea of the value we should expect to see in a trade up/down.
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Is he going to last that far? I get that he’s barely played in two years but he’s got top 15 OA level talent so I’d expect him to go higher than our comp third. That would be such an amazing get if it happened though.
Facking stupid trade. Chase is right there, but you want to make Bellicheck happy so you take Waddle and a 2nd plus a throwaway pick? Ugh. National writers…
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Drafts are different from year to year. You can’t just compare one with another and who is traded for who. We are talking about a team trading up for a very coveted QB in a historical QB draft in which four QBs can go top four and even five in the top ten.
4th or 5th QB.
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Tell me who is the consensus pick for the niners for the third pick.
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Do all teams rate the top 4 QBs the same? Disregarding Mac Jones for this purpose.
Do you think Chase is a lot better than Waddle? I think the top three are pretty close.
If I knew I could get one of the top three I’d do it. I do think we’d get more then that though and I’d be very concerned that all three of the wideouts are gone.
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Waddle was every bit as dominant as ‘19 Chase or ‘20 Smith.
His four game pace would’ve equated to the following had been healthy in all 14 games:
81 catches 1920 yards 13 TDs
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Sporting News has him going at #104, after our #101 pick. Walters has him going in the 5th. I haven’t checked some of the other mocks, but it seems realistic.
Yep, any of the 3 works. I prefer Smith but I get why everyone has their favorite.
See, that is the thing, you don’t know you can get one of the top 3 when you pull the trigger on that trade…
but let’s just do it because BB needs a QB and it fits a stupid narrative.
Sincerely,
National Writer
Ultimately I think you are right. The trade down premium has to account for that uncertainty.
Maybe they could throw in Duggar.
That’s the thing, you’re dropping to a point in the draft where the top 3 WRs are almost certainly going to be gone so New England needs to come up with an offer that the Lions can’t refuse.
This is why these trade value charts are bunk. They don’t take into account different scenarios as not all drafts are created the same.
A draft like this where there is a clear top 5 of QBs and where there will be 2 at most (and likely only 1) available at 7, that creates even more urgency for a team in the teens to trade up because the options are thin and there’s very little chance one of the 2nd tier QBs drops to their spot.
Furthermore, in this scenario, with Chase dropping to the Lions, they’re passing up the top player at his position so the team trading up will have to entice them to trade out. The Lions would be in the position of strength here because they have no motivation to trade down with the top player on their board sitting right there. Even if they have the cluster of Chase, Smith and Waddle rated fairly similarly, the 8 spot drop is just too risky to lose out on all of them so is a 2nd+future 4th worth choosing from that potential steep drop off of talent? Absolutely not IMO.
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For me if it’s 1 of the top 3 WR’s OR Parsons, I’m in. I don’t see all 4 being gone by #15. Every year people want to trade down, this is no exception. So, any of you who don’t like the trade if this is your only offer are you still out?
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I actually think Smith has a fairly good chance of making it to 15 but I agree that given the risk Holmes is likely to insist on more.
If you were Brad Holmes what would be your counter offer? The absolute least that you would accept from NE.
If that were my only offer I’d take it.
I’d be much more comfortable with drafting Waddle with a trade down. Still even with a trade down, there are some other guys there I might want.
If it plays out this way and Chase is on the board? Two 2nds at minimum also keeping in mind that they are likely to mid to late 2nds so I’m looking for a 5th in addition to that. Ideally, I’m pushing for that extra 1st+later round pick. 2nd+future 4th is unacceptable IMO because the Lions are in the advantageous position here.