Next-gen stats on the 2021 draft QBs are interesting

The Den
1

Karsch and Anderson were talking about this on 97.1 The Ticket on Friday. It comes from an ESPN.com article that’s behind a paywall.

Some interesting things emerge when you look at certain next-gen statistics related to this year’s draft QBs. But then it becomes a debate about just how significant those things are.

Because of the varying number of games played this season, these stats are based on the QB’s last 13 games.

QBR when under pressure:

  1. Mac Jones 78.3
  2. Zach Wilson, 44.0
  3. Kyle Trask, 37.5
  4. Trevor Lawrence, 33.4
  5. Ian Book, 28.2
    (Didn’t have information for this stat for Trey Lance)

QBR when blitzed:

  1. Mac Jones, 97.3
  2. Zach Wilson, 94.5
  3. Kyle Trask, 86.9
  4. Ian Book, 82.4
  5. Justin Fields, 81.1
    (no stats available for Lance)

The rest is behind the paywall. But Karsch and Anderson went on to some others of the stats. I’m not sure if they listed everybody, or just ranked the QBs considered to be the top QBs in the draft.

Completion % on passes 20 yards or more downfield

  1. Mac Jones 60.9%
  2. Zach Wilson 56.6%
  3. Justin Fields 56.4%
  4. Trevor Lawrence 39%
  5. Trey Lance 32.7%

Off-target throws, passes 10 yards or shorter

  1. Mac Jones, 3.1%
  2. Trevor Lawrence 3.8%
  3. Justin Fields 6.1%
  4. Zach Wilson, 6.2%
  5. Trey Lance, 9.0%

Off-target throws, passes 11 to 20 yards

  1. Justin Fields, 6.9%
  2. Mac Jones, 7.6%
  3. Trevor Lawrence, 8.4%
  4. Zach Wilson, 8.5%
  5. Trey Lance, 27.6%

QBR in the pocket

  1. Jones 95.8
    T2. Wilson
    T2. Fields 88.4

4 Lawrence 79.8

They then got distracted and didn’t go through QBR out of the pocket, which I really would have liked to hear. They did say that Jones also ranked first in 11-20 yard out-route completion percentage.

Obviously, Jones really stands out in these stats. But how much of that do you attribute to the other-worldly WR corps he had, and the great O-line he had? How many times was he actually under pressure, compared to the other QBs?

You can argue that Zach Wilson comes out looking good in these stats. He’s up near the top on a few of these categories, and his supporting staff is nowhere near what Jones’ was.

Jones set the record for completion percentage in a season this year. Whose record did he beat? Colt McCoy’s. Not exactly an NFL star.

I think when it’s all said and done, Jones is going to be drafted in the top 10.

3 Likes
2

They were talking about it on Valenti too yesterday, or at least I think they were. On a lot of them Mac Jones was at or near the top, and Trevor Lawrence was ranked like 7th or something on a few.

I posted it in another thread but I’m glad you started this one, my question was how crazy would it be if Trevor Lawrence does not go first overall and is that even a possibility (I mean anything’s possible but a likely possibility).

Also too, as you asked, how much is attributed to Jones having basically an NFL offense around him?

Sorry I have no answers just more of the same questions. But thanks for posting this I thought it was pretty interesting!

1 Like
3

Trying to relate Mac Jones experience at Alabama vs the other guys is nearly impossible. And again, it doesn’t mean Jones can’t do some of the same things the other guys have done…he just wasn’t asked to do it.

2 Likes
4

I’m not saying Mac Jones is not as good as Trevor Lawrence…but he isn’t.

2 Likes
5

Weird that Mac was the best under pressure when supposedly he was never under pressure.

1 Like
6

So Mac Jones can thrive in big time football with uber talented weapons. You know what you gotta do then if you draft him!

7

Facing a pass rush while throwing to wide open receivers is a different experience than the other prospects have. Also, even with pressure the integrity of his pockets tended to remain “clean” most of the time. So he wasn’t asked to make off platform throws or make compromises to his footwork and throwing motion very often.

2 Likes
8

I like this throw from Zach Wilson’s pro day. That even Trevor Lawrence had to comment on.

3 Likes
9

That’s awesome. The throw, the Lawrence reaction and the commenter’s “all time flex” point.

10

guy i like at the top wilson guy i like later trask i think both could end up being good starters . Jones could end up great but man i belive he faced much less pressure than these guys thus he is harder to eval thus risker but man that paints a nice picture for the dude.

11

I know pro days are supposed to make guys look great and usually don’t impress me… but I have not seen many pro days like Wilson displayed. He makes it look so easy.
His accuracy when throwing on the move and off platform is impressive.
And the way he can change velocities depending on the type of throw needed is top notch.

12

Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl.

Robert Horry won 7 rings.

Any number of The U, Florida and FSU qbs had a lot of stats wins and Heismans.

David Kircus ran wild in D3

I’m not saying Mac Jones will bust, but as you said all.of these stats are team and to a point scheme and opponent dependent, and as such are informative but not objective or critical data to make a decision upon.

1 Like
13

Given Lawrence appeal in South
Hard for me to picture jags passing on the excitement and boost in interest he would be without giving their fans a heads up the prefer a different QB.

I hope Lawrence got his Clemson degree in return for all the money he made them.

2 Likes
14

Amen dude!!! No kidding about that

1 Like
15

You kind of hit on what I’be been wondering, given all those variables, how do scouts evaluate QB prospects and project how well they will progress at the next level? I guess I’m just wondering what the true eye test measures are, along with specific stats.

3 Likes
16

Teams are all over the map on how they evaluate the position. Heck, the moment the GM for the Bears fell in love with Mitch Seabiscuit was when he saw what kind of car he drove. :joy:

2 Likes
17

Yeah, that is sick!

18

This is entirely production based and not skills based. So it is also greatly effected by surrounding players, scheme, downs, etc. It’s not a big tool for evaluations. Interesting though

1 Like
19

D2, respect!

1 Like
20

No team drafts QBs based on college stats.