I wanted to get this thread started early and dedicate it to stats and facts leading into this game. Good or bad let’s post some facts about this Lions team.
What does Washington have to look forward too?
The Team and fans.
The Lions were the most-watched team in the NFL this season & averaged 22.65 MILLION viewers PER GAME.
Tell me the NFL and Refs don’t realize this. NFL Fans want us in the Super Bowl.
134.3 is the decibel level for fans to beat at Ford Field this game. It’s going to be incredibly loud. The rookie QB Jaden Daniels has never played against a hostile crowd like the one he will face at FF.
The Lions defense.
When teams have thrown passes in the end zone against the Lions this year, they are 7-of-52 (13.5%) for 71 yards, 7 TDs & 6 INTs for a 39.6 QB rating
This marks the most INTs, lowest completion % and lowest passer rating by any NFL team.
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The Lions did not allow a TD in four games this season, the most in the NFL.
This ties for the 4th-most games without a TD allowed in franchise history and is Detroit’s most in a season since 1983.
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DB Brian Branch is the only defensive back in the last hundred years to have… 100+ tackles, 15+ PBUs, and 5+ tackles for loss in a season.
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The last time Lions CB Terrion Arnold had an INT it was against Jayden Daniels. Could this game be his first INT in the NFL?
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The Detroit Lions are THE BEST team defensively on 3rd down in the entire NFL…. Opposing teams only convert 32.4% of the time on 3rd down.
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Since losing Hutchinson. The Lions defense is:
3rd in Blitz %
4th in pressure rate.
1st in pressure rate on non-blitz plays (37.1%)
Muhammad ranks 13th in the NFL with a 15.9% quarterback pressure rate on his pass rush snaps, trailing only Hutchinson (16.8%) among Lions this season.
The Lions are getting pressure but aren’t getting sacks to match it. Detroit finished with 37 sacks, 24th in the NFL
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The Lions offense.
How the Lions offense has improved under Ben Johnson
2022: 453 total points scored/ 26.6 points per game (5th in NFL), 380 yards per game (4th in NFL), Detroit Lions record: 9-8
2023: 461 total points scored/ 27.1 points per game (5th in NFL), 394.8 yards per game (3rd in NFL), Detroit Lions record: 12-5
2024: 564 total points scored/ 33.2 points per game (1st in NFL), 409.5 yards per game (2nd in NFL), Detroit Lions record: 15-2
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Only two teams scored on 50% or more of their drives this season:
Detroit Lions (51.6%)
Washington Commanders (50.0%)
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The Lions love to use two tight ends (12 personnel).
When defenses matched that w/ nickel. Detroit averaged a league leading 6.8 yds/carry… Washington defended 12 personnel almost exclusively with a nickel defense. So I expect to see a ton of two tight end sets. Along with Skipper reporting as eligible a lot. We could see a pass to an OT as a result. This is how I think Ben will attack Washington’s defense.
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The Lions offense had 5 games this season where they scored 40 points and had zero turnovers. Most in the NFL and setting a new NFL record.
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Since 2022 Detroit has outscored opponents on average 17.0 to 8.6 in the first half at home.
Facts and Stats for Washington.
The lions are last in the league in defending a team that runs a 22 formation. Washington is first in this formation on offense.
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Washington faced the easiest schedule in 2024 while Detroit faced the 7th hardest schedule.
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15-2 Detroit Lions faced a league high 8 playoff teams going 6-2. Their two loses came to divisional winners Tampa Bay and Buffalo Bills.
12-5 Washington Commanders faced the fewest playoff teams 5 and only one won game against the Eagles (Hurts went out that game with injury)
However they did beat TB in the wildcard round. That leaves them 2-6 on the season vs playoff caliber teams. Note they also lost to those same two teams in the regular season.
Washington lost to the Eagles, Cowboys, Steelers, Ravens, Buccaneers.
They have been a streaky team. Barely beating the Saints, Bears and NYG but then put up 40pts vs Cardinals, Panthers and Titans. Let’s not forget they beat the Bears on a last minute Hail Mary pass.
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No rookie QB has ever won a Suoerbowl
No rookie QB has even started in a Super Bowl.
Only 13 Rookie QBs have made it to the Divisional round.
Only 5 Rookie QBs have made it to the championship round and all 5 have lost.
It’s really hard for rookie QBs to win at this level. Daniels is a calm rookie but AG should dial up a game plan that confuses him and forces some mistakes. Those mistake will be what sways the game.
Washington wanted the Detroit Lions. Well they’re about to get them. They’re about to see what a real contender feels like. They haven’t faced a team like this, in their home, all year. Welcome to the Lions Den. Ford Field will be a mad house.
Comparison of Washington vs Lions.
Offense (better team in bold)
Points per Game
Was - 28ppg (5th)
Det - 33ppg (1st)
Yards per game
Was - 386 (6th)
Det - 410 (2nd)
Yrds/Play
Was - 5.7 (10th)
Det - 6.2 (3rd)
3rd down conversion %
Was - 46% (6th)
Det - 48% (4th)
4th down conversion %
Was - 82% (1st)
Det - 67% (6th)
RZ Scoring %
Was - 61% (8th)
Det - 69% (2nd)
Defense (better team in bold)
Opp/ Points per game
Was - 22ppg (18th)
Det - 20oog (7th)
Opp/ Yards per game
Was - 324ypg (10th)
Det - 342ypg (20th)
Opp/ Yards per play
Was - 5.4 (18th)
Det - 5.7 (27th)
Opp/ 3rd down conversion %
Was - 39% (15th)
Det - 32% (1st)
Opp/ 4th down conversion %
Was - 67% (27th)
Det - 41% (2nd)
Opp/ RZ scoring %
Was - 60.7% (23rd)
Det - 50.9% (7th)
Dan Campbell says it’s time to get to work.
https://x.com/lions/status/1880425876602380314?s=46&t=QdfJCp82EM3qoPecSpo1LQ
I think Jayden Daniels puts up some yards but when it’s all said and done I believe the Lions will win this one and cover the spread.
Lions 34 - Commanders 23
