Travis Etienne left the game yesterday with a foot injury, that could help us. He’s been killing it in recent weeks.
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I’ll side with the Vikings still being the best remaining opponent.
Jax - I believe we will beat them
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Five weeks down, and we have played our hand perfectly – as predicted. We now have to continue winning out to get us to 10-7, with a 5-1 division record.
Five weeks down, and the Vikings keep playing teams that implode against them. Yet, if they go on a five game losing streak, we win the division, since they will also be 10-7 but will have a 3-3 division record. No more room for error. C’mon, purple, COOPERATE!!
We have to hope we beat them so badly that it messes with their heads.
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I think a vengeful Packer team will be the toughest.
If it were SOL, we’d win the next four for 9-7, Minnesota would lose out to go 10-7, setting up the division crown for us if we beat GreenBay. But then you know what happens. But I’m hearing we’re not the SOL, and starting to believe it.
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So by now most know that if the Vikings lose out and we win out, we get the division crown. Lets look at remaining schedules in depth and put a semi-realistic probability on it really happening:
Vikings are home against Indy, home against the Giants on Christmas Eve, then finish on the road at Green bay and Chicago.
And we all know we are on the road against the Jets, @ Carolina on Christmas, home against the Bears and away at the Pack.
Vikings: Game 1 - home against indy. I mean, the Vikings should win this game. But there’s a couple rays of hope. First, After three games under Jeff Saturday, the Colts are coming off a bye, so there’s been time to work on X’s and O’s for really the first time. Could they mimic the Lions of last year getting right at the end of the year? And besides, doesn’t Saturday have to win his first game on a Saturday?? Jefferson has to go up against Gilmore, better than anyone we have. And the Colts have a few players with 5+sacks. Cousins may get uncomfortable esp. if gimore has a good game. Matt Ryan is good when he has time, and the Vikings don’t have much of a pass rush. And the Colts have Jonathon Taylor – who is rested and due for a big game. So, I’ll call it 60% that the Vikings win.
Game 2 - the Giants on Christmas Eve. Man, I hope the Giants would finally provide a homecoming for Odell Beckham. This is also a game the Viking should win. But if you look at DVOA – not so fast. The Vikings are 21st and the Giants are 24th – pretty even. I think this is one of those games that will be really interesting, if the Vikings lost to the Colts, they may play tight and desparate. Call it 50% Vikings if they lose to the Colts, and 75% Vikings if they beat the Colts.
Game 3 - @ GreenBay. If Rogers is still playing, I think the Packers will be favored. And if they have lost three games in a row, Rogers is going to smell blood. I don’t know why, but I think Rogers would rather see us win the division rather than the Vikings. Green Bay is 15th in DVOA and the Vikings are 21st. Green Bay will be favored by 4 or 5 at home. I give the Vikings a 30% chance of winning this.
Game 4 - @ Chicago. Hey Justin Fields - are you 100%? Man, if the Vikings lose the first three, everyone is going to be talking about a colossal choke. The odds of the Vikings winning this game will be much improved if they’ve won one of the first three. If not, the noose is going to be getting really really tight. If the have won one of their first three and have something to play for, I’d give them 80%, if not, it may go down to 50%.
Lions: @ NYJ. On paper, this is our toughest game for sure. The Jets are 9th in DVOA while we are 11. You see the spread - very close. I give us 60% mainly because we have momentum.
@Carolina - they will want to continue to run the ball. Our run D (against RBs) is top third. I think we win this easy - 85%
Chicago - we’re at home and the place will be rocking - we should have enough film on Fields to not let him run wild, and they just dont have too many other weapons. - Lions 80%
@GreenBay - ooooh boy. The house of cards could come falling down here. But I think the Pack have ben eliminated, and Rogers just shot his load against the Vikings. We get jordan Love. I still give us only 60%
So the Vikings chance of losing 4 = .4 x .5 x .7 x .5 = .07
Our chnace of winning 4 = .6 x .85 x .8 x .6 = .245
.245 x .07 =1.7%
A heck of alot things need to go right.
But, i’m telling you there a chance!
I will mercifully let this post die (to the relief of most of you).
It took either an act of God (or the NFL – and they see themselves in the same tier) to do it.
When it was 36-7, I had a feeling that a four score lead wasn’t enough. And since nothing good could happen at that point, I turned it off and put the rest of my Christmas lights up. And waited for it. I knew it was possible.
Two silver linings:
- they get the first place (harder) schedule next year…woop, woop two harder games.
- i think if we face Minn. the playoffs, the underdog will have the mental advantage.
We’ll have to be happy with the wild card. It was fun while it lasted.
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Kudos man, I was a little deflated after TJ trade, figured we had given up.
You deserve a
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