This debate will never end even if he wins 2 SBs in Detroit. That’s fine. I don’t think people appreciate the small things he’s good at.
Let me start with I think Goff is an above average QB with significant limitations. I’ve watched him for 10 years and you can definitely win a Super Bowl with him and have consistent winning seasons deep into the playoffs.
Link below to their video. Two points were very telling to me why PFF grades him so low.
#1 is he throws short of the sticks on 3rd down. This is a huge variable in reducing his rating. While I agree that is a good metric conceptually, Goff has incredible short yard accuracy and thus he is throwing players open and YAC yards are very gettable, especially for guys like Kupp and St. Brown. This is by design with Goff and throw in that DC is willing to go for it on 4th down a lot, getting closer to that line of scrimmage is even more important than forcing a bad throw beyond it. I also wonder if they include all the times he throws balls away short of the player. Other QBs may try and force something or throw it deep out of bounds. By Goff skipping it (Brady does this too) does it look like an inaccurate, afraid throw versus and obvious chuck to the bleachers?
#2 is turnover worthy plays. I agree that Goff was lucky down the stretch. They said that Carr had fewer turnover worthy plays yet twice as many picks. Some of that is definitely luck. Other is the types of passes. Goff won’t have zero TOs next year. There will be some. They consider a good number of his plays turnover worthy and I’d have to see all the plays they count to know if I agree.
It was great to see PFF explain why their score is so widely different from QBR. QBR has him a top 7 QB this season. PFF has him #19.
I think he is ~10 and I think most on this board feel he is better than 15.
So is there a flaw in PFF? I’d say for sure! If Goff is really a ~10 QB and getting a 19 grade, they are wrong. That said, I do think they have good data and a good explanation.
The reason they are wrong is that they don’t give Goff credit for the things he does at an exceptional level. His +accuracy allows for YAC and other things that help QBR but aren’t counted above other QBs. His ability to distribute (not key on one WR) increases the running game and reduces defenses ability to disrupt or jump. This is not positively factored. This is why Goff does not look as good when too many of his weapons are out/injured. He relies on distribution to keep defenses honest.
Lastly, after 10 years I still see Goff as being cool and collected under pressure and in big games. I see him as being far better than Carr, Dak, Cousins, Wentz, and even Rodgers in these situations.
Here is the video so you can judge for yourself.
