I was messing around with the playoff predictor, swapping teams wins back and forth, looking at different scenarios, and one thing jumped out. The cowboys game tomorrow is the biggest game in determining our fate. Most likely we have to get to 11 wins to make the playoffs. That means we basically have one loss to give. Now, we can lose to the rams and still make it by winning the rest most of the time. We can win out and lose to the bears to end the season and still make it. If we lose to the cowboys, but win the rest.. we still miss the playoffs a fair amount. The cowboys schedule is extremely easy the rest of the way.. one way out is they tie us and we lose the tiebreaker. It looks like we lose the tiebreaker most of the time to sanfran with the cowboy loss. Im not running all the numbers, but with toggling the few close matchups week after week.. this seems to be the case. This game might be our season.
I was reading somewhere that if we lose one game, the order of preferred losses is this:
Steelers (least effect)
Vikings
Rams
Cowboys
Bears (most/worst effect)
If we lose two games, others will really have to mess up - like Bears or packers or San Fran need to lose four of five. We’re on thin ice for sure, and this game matters alot.
As of today, we do not have any control of our own destiny…. We must have others teams fall into place for us to advance….
But we still need to try to win each week… we win and we stay alive; lose and in the next two games afterwards we can win and slowly be Eliminated from the tops seeds….
No matter what… and we can control is to play to win against the Cowboys and let’s the chips fall
I don’t believe thats true. If we win out, I don’t think there is any scenario that we miss the playoffs, just due to the schedule for other teams and such.
i just ran a bunch of scenarios. 10-7 isn’t going to make it. If we lose to the Rams we can’t lose to the Cowboys, if we lose to the Cowboys we can’t lose to the Rams.
If we go 11-6 and beat the Bears, we root for a Bears/Packers split, and Pack losses to Denver and Baltimore. We win the division and get SF or Seattle at home. If the 7 seed, in this case the Bears, take down the Eagles (#2) again, we then get SF or Seattle at home again. And if the Bears take down the Rams (#1) we get the Bears at home. Otherwise we go on the road and take down Stafford – the Rams will not want to see us there (again).
I’m sticking with this scenario!
Even 11 wins likely gets us in. 12 would be guaranteed.
