Playoff Probabilities entering Wk 2

So, I am going to bring this back on the new forum and try to do it each week again….

Lions are a weird 0-0-1 to start the season. They go into week 2 wanting to win their home opener and technically stay undefeated at 1-0-1.

Currently, they are at a 65% probability to not make the playoffs.

  • If we win, it drops to 62%
  • If we loose, it goes to 70%

As the whole league sits today, If we win 10 of the 15 remaining games (67%), we go 10-5-1 and will have a 19% chance of no making the playoffs or have an 81% chance to clinch!

We only win 8 of the 15 (53%) we will have an 84% chance of no playoffs. Crazy, that going into just the 2nd game of the season… the swing is so great +/- just 2 games!

If we go on an indefinite winning streak, we control our own destiny to win the division meaning we still control our own path without needing help from other teams. We need losses already from other teams to get a higher seed.

We are currently projected to end the season as the 9th seed. We need to jump over the Eagles, Rams and 49rs to get to the projected 6th seed.

Currently, 3- 12 - 1 would officially eliminate us mathematically from the playoff race completely! So, there is hope!!


Now do 9-6-1.:wink:

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I’m modifying my prediction form 10-6 to 10-5-1. I’m comfortable with this, because MN is a touch better than I expected, while GB and Chi appear worse.

I think we sweep GB, and split with MN. If we manage to sweep Chicago, I think we have a very real chance to win the division. Right now, my favorite team is the Lions. 2nd favorite is whoever is playing against the Vikes.

Abject, you are a great poster and have good stuff all the time, but I have to say something, and I promise I will only say it once.

It is lose. It is not loose. Lose is the opposite of win. Loose is the opposite of tight.

I only bring this up because you use it wrong every single time. I promise I will never bring it up again. I look forward to all your future posts, whether you fix this or not.

Lol - almost wrecked my Jeep as I read this driving… which I shouldn’t have been doing anyways!

I still struggle with thier and there… sounds the same in my head when writing or reviewing it but I catch the visual difference a lot… not so mush with that cunning little word! They are simil but not even sounding the same… I have no clue why I still do it!

Thanks brother!!

It’s “their”…


Hah. In the end, it’s my OCD problem, not yours. Carry on, my friend.

I used to make this mistake too so don’t feel bad. This is how I remember the correct one to use.

Their (people or things)
There (place)
They’re (They are)

If (when) the Lions end up 0-0-16, they will be .500 on the season. They will also not have any tie breakers as every game ended in a tie. They will also not lose (loose) any tie breakers. So, the real question is, if:

Lions go 0-0-16 and finish with a .500 record.
Bears go 7-7-2 and finish with a .500 record.
Packers go 7-7-2 and finish with a .500 record.
Vikings go 7-7-2 and finish with a .500 record.

Who wins the division? :thinking:

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Laughed pretty hard, man!

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Short answer…they all loose.

Long answer, who ever won the most games against common opponents (ie. NFC East and AFC West this year)

Actually, if memory serves the first tie breaker would be division record. We know the Lions went undefeated, 0-0-6 in the division games. However, we have to assume that the Packers/Bears/Vikings at some point beat/lost against each other. Meaning, they will have incurred losses that the Lions didnt. Meaning, the Lions should win the division on the merit of not having lost a divisional game.

Its the same reason a team thats 8-7-1 has a better record than the team that went 8-8. The wins are tied, but the losses (looses?) are the difference maker

This would actually sum up the Lions as a franchise very well. Raising a division title banner with zero wins, lol.

I’d take it, man! Step in the right direction. Plus…Hilarious!

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The first tie breaker is head to head in division games win percentage, not actual wins. So all teams would be 0-0-2 against the Lions, thus any team that lost both head to head would be eliminated at this point. But the Lions could not have been eliminated at this point.

The next tie breaker is win percentage in the division. In this scenario, the Lions go 0-0-6 for a 0.500 win %. So if one team would go 4-0-2 (.833 win%) or 3-1-2 (0.667) in division, they would have a higher win percentage in division games.

Including the game last night, 55%! To not make the playoff or 45% to clinch!

This includes both NFC teams from last night at 1-1

This is the standard that ESPN playoff machine needs to be built too!!