Many seem anxious about rising QB contracts, and the Danny Dimes pact might have been what put many over the top…. I totally understand the desire to keep our talented young nucleus together, and a cheap rookie QB seems like a logical way to accomplish that, but how much is really saved by a rookie QB deal???
For just a second we can pretend we get lucky and land the Kyler or better level of player. We all know the first challenge is avoiding the really high “bust rate” of first round QBs, but let’s assume we hit on the player…. Now what?
Even some of the young studs really struggled as rookies, and many were playing well below current Goff levels in year 2…. Allen, Tua, Fields, and Hurts were well below 22’ Goff- Kyler, Lamar, Herbert all may have been comparable in year 2 to either 17’ Goff (2nd yr) or 22’ Goff (current)…… even if we hit, what do we expect from the rookie?
A- sit the bench in 23’
B- play well but not lights out in 24’
C- ball out and wins playoff games in 25’
Now you have playoff winning Stroud who is up to 4,800 yards with 30 plus tds and 10 ints- about current Goff- finished with year 3, and eligible for an extension. What does that extension look like? Hurts, Burrow, and Herbert are all in negotiations now… next year it will be T Law, and possible Fields?
8 yrs ans 408M is projection for Burrow- 51M per or more
6 yrs 300M is projected for Herbert…
Hurts I’m seeing 4 years and 180-200M
So if Stroud is comparable to Herbert, slightly better than Murray or thereabouts, the. We can assume 6 years and 330M……
So what does the next 9 years look like? Again assuming the rookie defies odds and is a stud!
23’ Goff 31M and rookie 6.5M (37.5M)
24’ Goff dead cap 5M and rookie yr two 6.75M (11.75M)
25’ rookie QB contract year 3… 7.5M (7.5M)
Extension
26’ 35M
27’ 42M
28’ 48M
29’ 50M
30’ 60M
31’ 65M
void year 20M
that’s 387M over 9 years….
Goff extension… 4 years 176M….
23’ 31M
24’ 31M
Extension
25’ 25M
26’ 35M
27’ 41M
28’ 49M
29’ voided yr 26M plus yr 1 rookie deal 12M
30’ 12M
31’ 12M
by my count Goff on a 4 year 44M AAV deal and then a top 5 rookie pick costs $275M total between now and 2031….
by comparison, 1 yr of Goff plus stroud starting for 8 would cost 387M.
This isn’t too far off…. Unless you think would demand more than Hurts is supposedly looking for now? I think 44M per does it.
Almost every viable, starting quarterback, taken the last seven or eight years has gotten extension after year three of the rookie contract. I’m not sure why people seem to believe that we’re going to save 80% at quarterback by drafting a rookie when you consider the fact that Goff is certain to be here next year and will carry a $5 million dead cabin the following year I think you have to factor that combine $36 million at quarterback, along with the rookies head, so in essence, we are going to be paying Golf $36 million and say Richardson $14 million for a combined total of $50 million over two years. Currently Goff is scheduled to make $62 million over the same two years in a late round developmental back up would cost about $2 million over that two years just leaving it at $64 million , from where I see it over a two-year period we are likely to save roughly $7 million per year at quarterback between now in 2025 by drafting Richardson. We still haven’t discussed. What happens if Richardson doesn’t end up being very good but simply focused on the difference in cost .
If we did offer Golf an extension, it’s very likely that the third-year would be replaced as a lower cab head in the golf 2025 salary cap may be in the high 20s or low 30s still significantly more than year three of the rookie deal. So I guess in 2025 that’s when we’d save 23 or $24 million by having A.R. 15 or CJ Stroud over Goff but we’d also be preparing to sign a $300 million extension unless, of course, that rookie quarterback was a bust, didn’t deserve the extension, but that also probably means that our playoff and Super Bowl odds we’re shattered.
Let’s imagine a QB who is able to come in as a rook and learn for a year. Said Rook is able to maneuver in the pocket and has the ability to avoid and take advantage of an over aggressive D. Does the second year QB alleviate the need for Pro Bowl lineman? If so, how does this effect the long term cap?
Well Mahomes was beaten to death in 20’ by the Bucs, and then they trade a first for LT Brown, gave Thuney at 5 yr 80M deal…. Then draft Creed in 2, and Trey Smith in the 5th the next off-season. I’d say and a 1st, 2nd, monster FA deal and 5th is pretty drastic… this year they gave J Taylor 4 yrs and 80M
The Bengals gave substantial deals to O Brown, Kappa, Karras, recent 1st on Jonah Williams, and a 4th last year on Volsom…. That’s after the Rams killed Burrow in 21’…
It’s hard to say in 22’ since two of the top QBs faced off, but then again it was also two of the best OLs regarding pick and $$$ investment.
so I’d say no…. We cannot take a kid who couldn’t throw in college and then skimp on our OL….
You would be implying the strength of our team magically shits from a stud OL, power run game and savvy veteran QB with a 4/1 td to in ratio- dating back 24 starts…. And replace that 1 yr contract WRs, an unproven raw QB, a cheap OL, and don’t add to a bad defense?
Doesn’t it seem easier to add 3 defensive starters, an IOL player, TE, WR/RB and a backup QB?
So because a few qbs ever have accomplished this, you assume it to be the norm because it specifically supports what you want the data set to say. Basic statistics manipulation. (This is how big pharma works too) Got it.
You could re analyze the data with the rookie qb playing out their 5th year option a la Lamar Jackson and see what picture that paints… i know you said with an agent… but very few 1st rd qbs have been extended after 3 years in the league
Why is there yet another thread talking about the same thing over and over again? I am pretty sure I know what 90% of the board thinks about this topic and what they want to do……
I don’t understand why people are getting their panties in a bunch about Lyonfan comparing the contracts of a rookie vs. Goff. Has anyone else broken it down like this?..not to my knowledge.
I say good work @Lyonfan1!
Don’t listen to the Nancy Nay-sayers.
