Sam Darnold's missed 5 TDs. Was it the Lions, luck, or both?

DanO’s video is below so you can see it for yourself.

So, we talked a bit about this in the game thread. And Twitter’s been having a blast with it as well. It’s quite clear that Sam Darnold shit the bed last night. He missed multiple touchdown opportunities. Now, with the ebb and flow of a game, things don’t line up linearly like that, but on the whole, he missed relatively ‘easy’ chances.

Here’s my question to the group: how much of this was the Lions strategy going in, and how much was it dumb luck that Darnold blew it? As Orlovsky pointed out, the Lions hit him and pressured him and had him seeing ghosts.

I ask the question because our opposing QBs the rest of the way could be some combination of:
Stafford, Love, Hurts, Mahomes, Allen, Jackson.

Those QBs are not going to fold quite like Darnold did. So while I want to enjoy the defensive performance, I also want to acknowledge reality a bit.

https://x.com/danorlovsky7/status/1876292258796101943

Fair question… Who knows. We won’t ever know.

But AG is cooking up an entirely different strategy for the playoffs IMO. The opponent means everything.

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It’s not dumb luck. The Lions looked for the weakenss in the Minnesota offense. It’s not the receivers, they are lethal. Hockenson can still do damage in the middle. Their run game is solid but not spectacular. No, the way you take those elite receivers out of the game, is to attack the guy throwing them the ball. That’s the weakness the Lions targeted and exploited.

They knew if they could keep Darnold moving, they could get him off his game. They took away the easy reads. Darnold’s passes last night were very inaccurate. If you watch replays, look at how many times he was throwing mid step, or shuffling away, or falling away. That’s why his passes were all over the map. Darnold plays best when he has an easy read, and when he can set his feet and throw. The Lions made him play more like a scrambler and it took him out of his comfort zone.

Every single opportunity they had, the Lions were hitting Darnold. Those hits add up. On the first goal line stand, the first 2 passes were missed directly due to pressure. On the 3rd down play to Jefferson in the corner, the Vikings actually stoned the pressure. However, Darnold was still impacted and rushed the throw when he didn’t have to. The Lions accelerated Darnold’s internal clock and made him very uncomfortable. Did we get lucky there? Yep. Did the Lions previous plays cause that lucky break? Yep again. You know what else was lucky? Darnold getting away with a near pick when Robertson played Jefferson perfectly on 2nd down and just dropped the pick.

The Lions got equally lucky on the Van Ginkle dropped pick as we talked about in another thread. However, these are the individual plays that determine games. The Lions made more of the plays, and the Vikings missed their opportunities. The Lions kept chipping away and once they got to 17-9, The Vikings were now in catch up mode and the Lions squeezed the life out of them.

Here’s one more example of a team making plays and a team missing plays. Lions defense held the Vikings to a FG as the 2nd quarter was closing. That made the game 7-6. The Vikings then kick the ball out of bounds on the kickoff, an EASY play and terrible mistake. Lions now get the ball on the 40, run 2 plays, kick the FG and go into the half 10-6. The Vikings were getting the ball out of the half. The Vikings could’ve sent the game into the half 7-6, and get the ball out of the half for their first lead of the game. Instead, they made a super silly mistake and cost themselves 3 points.

These kinds of mistakes are made when teams are pressing. How many times did we watch the Lions make a stupid mistake to help the other team, and shoot ourselves in the foot? Well, now the teams we are playing are pressing to beat us, and the pressure is causing them to make those same stupid mistakes.

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One thing I know to be fact. Dan O wouldn’t have made those plays as QB. Dude literally is a huge joke for running out the back of the end zone. One thing he doesn’t mention is the Lions knocking the shit out of him and forcing those bad throws. I usually like Dan O’s evaluations but he forgets how hard it is to play QB in this league.

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Pressure and coverage were great, yesterday. 3 points in the 3rd totally demoralized them.

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I agree with Storm. Can’t state it any better than that.

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He did say that.

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Fantastic post. Especially that last bit. Sort of blends well with the analysis that the Vikings were trying to play like the Lions (going for it on fourth, etc) — we definitely had them out of their element.

What am I missing here then? The Lions should score on every drive according to this logic. :man_shrugging:

The Lions used similar pressure on Mahomes last year to open the season. Mahomes did a lot better than Sam, but he still made some bad throws and Lions won.
More seasoned QBs with good Olines will be more difficult, but the Lions haven’t won 15 games by luck.

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Get to the QB and give him looks he wasn’t prepared for, and good things can happen to any team. We once made Brady look pedestrian on a Monday night.

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Stunting, blitzing, and having Thor to cover Hock, that’s how you beat the Queens.

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Anti-thesis of the SOL

Bazaroo world come to life

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You can watch almost every pass play and see someone open. But that doesn’t mean the QB actually sees it or that’s where the play was supposed to go. Darnold has 35 tds and is in the PB so it’s not like he can’t make the passes. The crowd, being hit and some sticky coverage made it hard on Darnold. Was also the biggest game of Darnolds career.

DanO also said it was the best defensive game plan he had seen all season against the Vikings.

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I would say both.

The Lions clearly schemed to get into his head and it work. Darnold looked like a deer in headlights.

There’s a reason rookie QBs often lose in the playoffs. The game was too big for them.

This game was too big for Darnold. This is his first year ever having this much to play for and the pressure got to him literally.

The Lions defense stepped up and never let Darnold get comfortable.

But you have to give credit to that defense. They stepped up.

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the moment was too big for him

Good post.
Only thing I would have mentioned is the return of Alex Anzalone cannot be overstated. That eliminated the middle of the field option with TE etc that had been burning Detroit the last few weeks.

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@StormGuyNovi excellent analysis as usual. I thought Vikings had a good tight end name munt or something,didn’t hear his name in last game

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I agree with Air. Here is the bottom line: we forced Darnold to beat us with his arm and he couldn’t. We hit him hard often. We collapsed the pocket around him. He never got comfortable and he couldn’t respond. End of story.

If you play Stafford like this he kills us as he can stand in a pocket and deliver. Hidden edge pressure from say Iffy helps against a Stafford. Against Darnold we wanted him to see muddle pressure play after play with edge guys not giving him an escape lane. Paschal was brilliant as was Levi.

Darnold missed the throws because we FORCED him to make uncomfortable decisions and he sucks at that. Period.

There was no luck involved. Hit after hit on Darnold laid the foundation for his missed throws and missed reads. For all the Darnold talk he isn’t very experienced with big games or defenses coming after him like that.

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Blah Blah Blah.

I dont care if Van Winkle scores, and Darnold played the game of his life. We still find a way to win that game. Maybe only by 10.

We remembered who the f we were.

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