Space X

The Den
21

Open source models that people can actually run without costing them an arm and a leg for local compute don’t touch Claude.

I’m not an AI expert but I’ve spent a ton of time working with open source models this year. It’s not particularly close. Anytime I need to actually build something I have to get Claude to essentially chaperone the local model to get what I want. I’m hoping that if I chaperone enough times that the local model can be trained into doing what I want, but I have my doubts.

Now, for regular chat use cases, open source models are fine. It’s when you try to build stuff with them that you notice a major difference in quality.

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22

For now, sure but everything I have read indicates that the gap continues to close and is now about 6 months behind. IMO we are going to see organizations split flows amongst platforms. Frontier models for frontier tasks and open source for the plow horse stuff.

I’ve only used Claude and a tiny bit of early ChatGPT so I’m just going off of what I’ve read and been told by people using Qwen and Deepseek (mostly as to augment their Claude usage).

2 Likes
23

Also, at what point will you stop doubting the prowess of the Chinese for making high quality knockoffs. :slight_smile:

Don’t see why this will be different. Just give it a bit more time.

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The more powerful open source models we have today I haven’t gotten to try yet. I’m hoping I’ll be able to soon. That said, I’m allegedly using a 32B parameter Qwen model to code with in this IDE I built and the results haven’t been as good as I’d hoped.

Hopefully you’re right.

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My brother’s usage is as you described. Open source for the mundane to save on tokens. He gets rate limited even on the $200 plan if he doesn’t.

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26

Nothing illegal about any of it. Give it a rest.

Now, when it comes to current and future ticker pricing for SPCX, expect to see downward pressure. The lock-in and release of shares were designed that way.

“SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) completed its record-breaking IPO on June 12, 2026, pricing at $135 per share and raising ~$75 billion (with the greenshoe option exercised for more). Shares began trading on Nasdaq and quickly rallied due to extremely low initial float (~4.2-4.3% of total shares freely tradable at launch). As of mid-June 2026, the stock has traded in the $160–$225 range, pushing the market cap above $2.5 trillion (with closes around $192–$201 recently).

finance.yahoo.com +1

The Share Unlock (Lock-Up) ScheduleSpaceX uses a staggered, performance-tied lock-up instead of the typical flat 180-day restriction. This applies to most pre-IPO insiders, employees, and investors (excluding Elon Musk’s larger stake). The structure releases shares gradually, which was intended to smooth supply but still creates multiple potential selling windows.

investing.com +1

Key elements (approximate, based on S-1/prospectus details; exact earnings dates vary):IPO date: June 12, 2026 (initial float very small).
First major unlock: ~2 days after Q2 2026 earnings (likely late July–August 2026) → Up to 20% of eligible locked shares (potentially more, up to 30%, if the stock trades ≥30% above IPO price — i.e., ≥$175.50 — for 5 of 10 consecutive days before earnings).
Time-based tranches (7% each of eligible shares):Day 70 (~Aug 21, 2026)
Day 90 (~Sep 10)
Day 105 (~Sep 25)
Day 120 (~Oct 10)
Day 135 (~Oct 25)

Q3 earnings unlock (likely Oct–Nov 2026): Additional ~28%.
Full 180-day expiry (~Dec 8–9, 2026): Remaining shares for non-Musk holders.
Elon Musk’s shares: Separate longer lock-up until ~June 12, 2027 (366 days); he holds a massive stake with super-voting rights.

By late 2026, a large portion (potentially ~58% of the company) could become tradable, expanding the float dramatically (13x+ from IPO levels). This increases selling pressure risk, especially if many insiders/employees sell vested shares for liquidity. However, “eligible” does not mean they will sell — many may hold for long-term reasons.

businessinsider.com +1

Impact on price: Low float drove early rallies (“scarcity premium”). Unlocks could introduce volatility or downward pressure, particularly in Sep–Nov 2026 clusters. Markets often anticipate these events weeks ahead.”

bitget.com

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27

This is not a pump and dump. It’s not close to the market definition of a pump and dump.

”A pump and dump is a form of securities fraud and market manipulation. Core Definition Promoters (or a group) artificially inflate (“pump”) the price of a stock — typically a low-volume, micro-cap, or thinly traded security— through false, misleading, or exaggerated positive statements, hype, or coordinated buying. Once the price rises due to increased buying from unsuspecting investors, the perpetrators sell (“dump”) their own shares at the inflated price for a profit. This causes the price to collapse, leaving later buyers with heavy losses.

www-investopedia-com.translate.goog

How It Typically Works Accumulation: The schemers buy large quantities of cheap shares quietly in a low-liquidity stock.
Pump: They spread promotional material via spam emails, social media, forums, fake news, “insider tips,” or coordinated trading to create buying frenzy and drive up the price.
Dump: Once the price peaks and volume is high, they sell their holdings into the demand they created.
Collapse: The price plummets as buying dries up and reality sets in, often back to (or below) the original level.

This is illegal under U.S. securities laws, including:Section 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and SEC Rule 10b-5 (prohibiting fraud and deceptive practices).
Other anti-manipulation rules.

marketswiki.com

Common TargetsMicro-cap and penny stocks (low regulation, thin trading).
Over-the-counter (OTC) securities.
Increasingly, cryptocurrencies and other digital assets.”

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28

So if a crime is not committed than we lose any right to object to the perception held by many that a certain class of folks are able to change the rules of the game for their own self-benefit/self-enrichment?

Is that what you mean by, “Give it a rest”? Also, kind of a rude way to address a fellow Dennison just offering his opinion.

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29

If some one keeps screaming fire, fire, and there is no fire? What do we call that? Oh yeah, there is a child’s fable about that.

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30

You can object, but you cant keep claiming illegality (or a crime) without pushback from society at large.

31

I didn’t say it was illegal. What I am saying is that there ought to be a close examination of the matter when the risk is being pushed upon millions of peoples’ retirement savings and one guy gets 80% control for generations with an entirely neutered shareholder base. This is not something that should have been rushed, especially with two more coming in rapid succession. Not to mention the IPO itself has been widely pilloried by people who know much more about this stuff than you or I.

32

Sure Bud.
“The way the IPO was constructed is fraudulent. Bunch of ■■■■■■■ criminals.”

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Like I said, a lot of people looking at it say it’s a travesty, people who spend their lives watching these things. The latter part was editorializing, I will admit that.

34

WTF are you even talking about? Strawman much?

The issue that some have is that they don’t think that the top .0001% should be able to rejigger the rules to maximize their exit strategy.

Btw, it’s pretty rich that you are mocking opposing viewpoints and mansplaning about markets when IMO:

1:) your viewpoint as described in this thread shows a lack of understanding of how financial markets and index funds have traditionally worked.

2:) you seem to lack any understanding, or perhaps it’s a lack of empathy, to how wide swaths of Americans are feeling about there being a totally separate set of rules and elasticity of those rules for the top .001%.

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35

Who claimed it was illegal? I have to be honest here. You are really exposing your remedial understanding of the topic being discussed.

Which actually explains your penchant for mansplaning. I presume it’s projection derived from an underlying insecurity.

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There is also the fundamental principle in Western law that “justice must not only be done, it must be seen to be done.” When the stakes are this high, sitting back and assuming these companies and the institutions they are in bed with have the moral character worth “society at large” putting blind faith in seems, well, pretty unwise.

37

Please read above. That will help you in this discussion.

38

Interesting. I asked 50 and got 50 through Fidelity. Did you hold any Tesla prior to your ask?

I feel like my long term hold on my Tesla shares may have kicked the full fill being, well… fulfilled odds in my favor, also that I didn’t have a giant ask.

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39

I’m fairing just fine in the discussion. If posts are edited I have no control over that. You do however have control over your penchant for strawman arguments and mansplaning. Perhaps you should work on that. Or just carry on with your Stanley Drunckenmiller cosplay routine. Whatever you prefer.

40

Nothing was edited. This topic has been discussed in two different threads, thats why you are not connecting the dots.