I think he has all the talent to be. But the douche quotient will probably prevent him from ever reaching those heights.
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To be a top 10-20 receiver in the NFL (not just a short term statistical anomaly), part of the “talent” profile HAS to include:
- Being where he is supposed to be, exactly when he is supposed to be there. Pickens has a ton of route running issues that are never going to sort out. And he will never put in the effort to work them out.
- Earning the confidence of the QB. Pickens has a limited route tree, and he is not interested in putting in the work to advance it in a meaningful way. The routes that optimize his skillset are lower percentage throws that potentially put the ball at risk.
- Understanding the overall play concepts to precisely run NON-TARGETED routes in a way that opens up other targets to give the QB an easier throw/read.
Pickens will never be that guy. He can only be a short term statistical anomaly that makes people think “what if.” For fantasy football that is great. For real football, he has no shot at ever achieving that level.
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That ■■■■■■■ guy is gonna bitch and moan all season as it become clear he is the clear #2 there and his man-baby ego can’t process it.
Mega Turd
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So you’re saying if he’s not all that, but does have elite ball in the air acrobatic ability to high point and come down with the ball and toe tap on the sideline (which he does) with good size/speed and uses THOSE abilities to put up top 10-20 numbers, he should NOT be considered a top 10-20 WR? Because he’s not a crisp route runner? Poppycock. The NFL is filled with guys who excel based on pure size and talent and others that lack those things, yet get there through extreme discipline and work ethic like Amon Ra. When top 10-20 lists are put out, they are based on PRODUCTION. Not “how” they achieve it. Again, he may never get there, but I do disagree with your premise here. Some guys excel greatly in the NFL due to talent and size and Pickens has both.
I’d say in 2023 he was a top 20 WR. 63 for 1,140 / 18.1 YPC
And in 2006 Roy Williams was a top 20 WR. 82 for 1,310 / 16 YPC and 7 TDs (Pickens had 5). Roy and George have some of the same issues. Which makes it difficult to replicate their highest years of success. The defense will change, making it harder going forward. That’s why guys like Roy and George will always regress after looking like they finally broke out. It takes a ton of extra work…just to maintain the same production.
Here is another Steelers receiver who had a season that was a statistical anomaly. It appeared that he might be a top 5 type guy…STATISTICALLY. In reality he was simply benefitting from the defense keying on the receiver on the other side, who was ACTUALLY a top 5 receiver. The real top 5 receiver on the team had less catches for less yards. Once the imposter had to deal with the same amount of attention as a real 10-20 receiver the following season, it all came crashing down.
And here is another Steelers receiver that was able to see a nice stat line in the short term, but was never a top 10-20 receiver. That limits production going forward.
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Pickett and Pickens…maybe it’s time to let someone else do the Picking.
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Yep. So basically the only issue I took was your use of the word “never” when he at least IMO he already was once in a short career, and “could” be again. You were talking about how you can’t attain that status if you aren’t a great route runner. Which I still disagree with. It’s rare that you find a Calvin Johnson that has it all. That’s why he has a gold jacket. Being a top 20 WR in any given year is muuuuch broader criteria and will include a muuuuch broader range of WR “types.” Including douchebags who are undiciplined route runners who can out high point dudes on the sideline and catch jump balls in the endzone.
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And a consistent rounder of 90 degree breaks off the stem in high leverage spots.
DK is the GOAT at that.