The 2025 NFC North Under the Hood

Right, running QBs are always good for running games and we won’t have that, and certainly the running wasn’t AS successful when Brissett took over, but was that due to a non-running-QB, or everything else that went wrong last year? Hard to say.

They also had some good games statistically back in 2023 with Dobbs. I think he started half the year? He’s mobile too but not nearly as known for taking off as Kyler.

People keep saying stuff like this, but it just isn’t true. I think people’s desire to play bully ball clouds their perception of the offense’s effectiveness last year.

The offense was #5 in points, #5 in yards, and #5 in expected points.

What was lost in the running game was made up for by being really good in the passing game, especially in chunk plays. The offense was #3 in yards/play and #3 in gains of 20+ yards. And it’s not like this meant the defense was on the field longer than necessary, they were still in the top 25% of the league in time of possession.

I’m not saying there shouldn’t be some effort to make improvements on O, just that:

  • The offensive “struggles” last year are overstated by many on this board
  • Improvements on the OL (which I believe have happened) won’t suddenly catapult this team
  • The defense is where the real opportunities are for improvements that will reflect in the W-L record

The offense was still really explosive overall for sure. But what the packers and Vikings did to us in those 4 games was very eye opening. We lost all 4 games and struggled on offense in all of them. We couldn’t run the ball and couldn’t protect Goff.

And the RB injuries. I do think Adams is great but I also think he is one of many reasons that the run game in Arizona failed to replicate former success. I also think the correct way to view it, as well as the traditional way would be: the jump from college to the pros is tricky and Justin Frye didn’t have the prior assistant coach experience within the league that Adams did. Instead we are being fed this odd logic pretzel of: the 2024 Detroit Lions run game success was entirely bc of the OC but the 2024 Arizona Cardinals run game success was entirely bc of the OL coach. This must be the case bc Ben Johnson must be Vince Lombardi incarnate or else the Football Hipsters Society has to redo all of their takes but they can’t bc they are to busy generating the same damn PFF queries and making podcasts with their pets running into the frame.

It’s all narratives based on small sample sizes. That’s the nature of the content creation machine. Obviously Ben took our mojo with us and Adams took Arizona’s mojo with him, just look what happened immediately after they left! The correlation is obviously like-for-like.

4 games? The home games were mostly fine. With GB it just came down to 4th down conversions and with the Minny home game it was just too damn sloppy. Ten penalties and some protection issues. I’m also somewhat forgiving of our protection struggles in the opener given that we didn’t know how Parsons would even be deployed but the X-mas game was a disgrace. We were also starting a super green UDFA at Center.

It was a bit better at home. But in all 4 games we couldn’t run the ball. That was a disturbing trend when division rivals are doing that. Again that’s in the past and we have a new OC. Gotta get some revenge on those ■■■■■■■ this year. One thing is for sure they will be coming after the interior of our line so we better be prepared.

The Lions lost 8 games last year. Let’s look at the rushing totals from those games:

GB - 22 carries 46 yards 2.1ypr - 13 points
KC - 23 carries 98 yards 4.3ypr - 17 points
MIN - 20 carries 65 yards 3.3ypr - 24 points - Dan takes over playcalling after this game
PHI - 21 carries 74 yards 3.5ypr - 9 points
GB - 30 carries 119 yards 4.0ypr - 24 points
LA - 20 carries 70 yards 3.5ypr - 34 points
PIT - 12 carries 15 yards 1.3ypr - 24 points
MIN - 30 carries 68 yards 2.3ypr - 10 points

7 of 9 games with less than 100 yards rushing, a staple of the team. Pitiful games including Min x2 and Pitt. The teams that gave us the most pressure, and by the end of the year everyone was trying it, was blitzing right down the middle. If you can’t stop something, be prepared to see it over and over. Campbell said that himself throughout the year, teams will run it until you can stop it. We couldn’t stop it.

My concern is that we still won’t be able to stop it. I have high hopes when Mays gets back, but I still am not seeing much from LG and no solutions on the roster at the moment. Mahogany looks very spotty, which mirrors what we saw in the regular season. In preseason, Mahogany should be handling assignments and looking fundamentally sound. Until we shore up LG-C, this offense is going to have some times where things look ugly.

Fortunately, our schedule is pretty light until Mays is due back, but his first game back looks like it will be the Packers with Parsons back.

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Exactly what I was thinking. Teams know we are still in a transition phase with our Oline. They know the success they had attacking the inside of our Oline last season. They will definitely continue to test that until we prove we can hold up on those interior pressure moves, or Petzing shows he knows how to effectively counter and make them pay for that over-commitment.

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Good data there. It is a concern on the interior no doubt. Scruggs and Mahogs stand out as a clear area for a defense to attack. Hopefully Sewell will help Mahogs a lot. I really don’t know what to expect from Scruggs. Hopefully he’s at least serviceable until Mays is back. And Miller is a rookie who hopefully learns really fast.

The oline remains the biggest story going into the season.

Even if we are struggling some inside, we gotta get Gibbs on the perimeter. Also lots of shorter passes and let our play makers YAC teams to death. You would think screen passes would work well too with all the blitzing linebackers we have seen. Jamo is apparently now running slants so that is something that could punish teams blitzing us. Middle of the field wide open.

Eguakun started in the Pitt and Minny games.

Didn’t the Browns steal him and promise him a starting spot? I can’t remember how that went down.

I don’t know if it was promising him a starting spot. Kingsley is supposed to be smart so I think he knew there would be a regime change. But I do remember Dan saying something about KE liking that opportunity or getting more assurances or something along those lines.

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I think it was that he had the opportunity to start some games down the stretch. Basically he was about to be shifted back to our PS, they had a better immediate situation. After that, cards fall where they may.

While I agree the there is a concern, most definitely, I would add that very little to no gameplanning is going in on preseason games, plus not having Sewell impacts others as well.

So, concerned, yes, but not sure to what level at this point.

https://x.com/nate_tice/status/2091952171499798720?s=46

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They have a quarterback and a great stable of pass catchers

And that’s about it.

They luckboxed into a huge turnover margin which they won’t repeat.

Pretty good OL too though losing Dalman hurts.

It’s a talented offense. It’s not perfect but they’ve better offensive personnel than what, 25 teams? At least 20?

But yeah, the turnovers masked just how terrible that D actually is. And it wasn’t good even with all of those turnovers.

Also they have to replace a half dozen DJ Moore miracles