The way it’s shaping up we’re going to have close to half our cap in four guys pretty damn soon.
Does that make a trade back more likely? If we think our scouting department is still in its NBA Jam on fire phase then isn’t that the most prudent strategy given our upcoming roster setup?
We have to sign those guys but we are in good shape as far as the cap goes. We need to stop signing FAs that effect compensatory picks. I am curious to see what happens with Alim and Decker. We will continue to lose good players like Jonah but we need draft picks on rookie contracts to replace them. If we just sign a FA for 8 mil to replace him we get no comp picks and build salary.
It depends on who is available this year. If the top 24 players all go as expected I am all for trading back for more picks.
I’d say no. If there is a good player there, we draft him, if not trading back is an option.
Don’t chase a compensatory pick. We got a lot better with our UFA signings, a lot better than a compensatory 4th rounder in 2025.
I would agree with that for this year because we haven’t started signing our guys yet. I think going forward hitting on those 3rd and 4th round picks will keep us competitive. You know more about the cap than I do but I would rather pay to keep our own than sign 4 or 5 FAs every year. Those comp picks can replenish the roster with good players on rookie contracts.
If somebody were to hire Agnew as a GM or AG as a head coach that would be like hitting the jackpot without losing any players. Adding two 3rd round picks for Brad could really add depth to the roster and allow some players to walk. It also allows us to trade for players without killing our draft capital.
Some players next season an maybe even in September depending on draft may be walking. I agree we need to be careful but i also agree we shouldn’t chase comp picks. We had to sign few CBs this season we shouldn’t next season or if we do just one. I am ok with few mid price FA an sign are own. FA should be only for holes that happen from injury, age or someone asks for to much. That’s why I think we get two OL man this draft an a CB an S an WR . I know many think we need edge in this draft I think it will not be early. They will secure the OL for future years. Also improve depth at WR
Alot depends on Alim. I have a feeling he wants to get paid. I was thinking we’d sign him by now and we wouldn’t be worrying about DL. So we concentrate on CB, WR, and OL. But, if Alim walks next year, we have to worry about DT as well, so we need another pick in the top 100, which means we need a trade down. And there are a few good options that could replace Alim in the top 100.
Also I’m thinking we should not rule out a player (Barnes, Alim, Houston?) for a pick in the top 100.
Hutch contract should be a real issue until 2027- they have 2 more cheap years, then even if they extend him prior to paying him a 5th year option, it won’t be crazy year one…
Sewell will be cheap for 2 more years and reasonable in 2026…
Alim is a tricky one, but I think he will be viewed more in the Tomlinson, Rankins category, than Wilkins, but we shall see. I don’t see 9-10 sacks coming…. Maybe a 3 year 48M deal to secure financial well being, and one more bite at the apple in 2028 as a 27 year old?
Goff should get a 3 year 150M extension on top of his bargain 2024 season- making him relatively cheap in 25-26’ and a cold void year in 28’ to take some burden off 27’
Amon Ra should get a 4 year 104M extension on top of his cheap 24’ season. See Devonta Smiths contract as an example of how this one is really a 2-3 year deal that can be redone in 27’ even…
Decker should get a nice 1-2 year extension in the 2 year 36M range? Again freed up in 26’ with a small voided year.
Ragnow, Monty, AA, Sutton (sooner now), C Davis will all be off the ledger by 26’… so most
of the financial “noise” will take place once this nearly 40MM AAV is gone….
so yes those 6 guys could see 180M combined…. BUT by the time Hutch starts climbing toward his AAV, Decker and maybe Alim will already be off book.
The cap can always be manipulated to work especially with long extensions.
And i dont see trading down from 29 netting that much more or cheaper capital.
As for the percentage of cap the stars will be making.
Goff 50AAV
ST Brown 27aav
Sewell 29aav
Lets call Hutchs 5th year option 25m.
So for 2026
Thats 131m for the top 4 guys and the cap will be pushing 300m.
Thats well over 170m left for everyone else
Lol depends on what you call early, and you only have one legit DE and one pass rush specialist. Every one else is a question mark. DT the same you got your starters but big Questions after. I bet you there will be a Dlineman taken in the first 3 Rds. I know your counting on your practice squad players, every year you try to sell everyone here that we don’t need something we really need is a major need.
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2024 Lions draft preview: Team still searching for viable Hutchinson complement 3
Full article at link
Current roster: Aidan Hutchinson, Josh Paschal, John Cominsky, James Houston, Marcus Davenport, Mathieu Betts, Mitchell Agude
Short-term need: Five out of 10
Long-term need: Eight out of 10
Top prospects: Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, Laiatu Latu, Chop Robinson
Day 2 options: Marshawn Kneeland, Darius Robinson, Chris Braswell, Bralen Trice, Jonah Elliss
Late-round considerations: Jalyx Hunt, Brennan Jackson, Eric Watts, Myles Cole
Analysis: It may surprise you to learn the Lions led the NFL in pressure rate, and finished second in quarterback knockdowns last season. That’s because the defense struggled to translate its ability to affect the pocket into sacks. The team’s 41 sacks ranked in the bottom 10 in the league for 2023.
Detroit’s reliance on the blitz did factor into its lofty pressure rate. With effective situational rushers such as Alex Anzalone, Ifeatu Melifonwu and Brian Branch, the defense could undoubtedly be disruptive when coordinator Aaron Glenn opted to bring extra heat, particularly on third downs.
But traditional pass-rush success was more elusive"
You never draft based on current roster construction. If anything, you want the 5 year contract considering the impending cap squeeze in the next 2-3 years so that would make standing pat or consolidating and trading up to be the more prudent move in that case.
This is cutting off your nose to spite your face. Not improving the team now so that you can get an extra day 3 pick a year from now isn’t how you build a winning team.
The correct strategy re comp picks is to ignore them. In a couple of seasons time when there are too many talented players to be able to pay them all, then we will naturally pick up comp picks.
I don’t think you are using that axiom how it’s usually utilized. Typically that refers to positions. I’m talking salary composition which should be considerably less fleeting. Short of figuring out an alternative at QB we are pretty much going to be stuck in this situation of extreme concentration in our upper class. It’s hardly unique. Many teams that nail drafts go through this. But if you’re suggesting that it would be unwise to adapt and leverage our strength in scouting to try and alleviate the burden of high salaries then I vehemently disagree. Not saying trading down for more bullets in the hopes of snagging an extra cheap starter is the only approach. I just happen to think it’s the most viable of strategies.
You’re talking about a top heavy salary structure and I understand where you’re coming from but I’m talking about timeline and thinking about the 2nd contract of the draft pick. The Goff, St. Brown and potential McNeil contracts kick in in 2 years, Sewell the year after, Hutch the year after that and Jamo?. By the time the 2024 1st rounder is due for his next contract, those aforementioned deals (the first group of 2nd contracts in particular) will take up a lower percentage of the cap (assuming that the cap continues to rise significantly and why wouldn’t it since it’s the NFL) so that’s why I’d think it be wiser to stay in the 1st round if we’re talking from a fiscally responsible cap perspective and being able to fit everybody in.
Now if we’re talking from a scouting perspective and giving this high end scouting staff more bullets to work with then, yeah, I understand where you’re coming from.
I’ve been wrestling this issue too. Its a problem a lot of good teams have. It makes sense to trade players and keep developing new ones, but guys like ARSB, McNeill, Hutch, Sewell…these guys are the Lions to a degree. Throw Goff in there too.
But it’s not about the savings from the first to the second. It’s about can you replace an extra mid level salary guy or two with rookie deals by acquiring extra picks.
I think an alternate approach some teams in this situation take is leaning in. Looking for another star, go for it and then release the pressure by trading one of the big ticket items. I’d prefer not to go that route.
But if our super power is out scouting why not give the scouts more shots on goal?
You gotta pay the guys that are irreplaceable… Jonah for example was replaceable so we went cheaper with Zeitler. Just can’t pay everyone. Business decisions have to be made.
What would the Lions offense look like without Sewell and St. Brown? I really don’t wanna know. Without Goff?
Alim I’d love to keep… but is he a star like Sewell and St. Brown? No. Could he become 1…possible.
The villain has some tough decisions ahead.
It’s gonna be tougher than many are suggesting IMO. Presuming he balls out.