Using different trade charts (one is behind an ESPN paywall), it has been suggested the Jets grossly overpaid to move up from No. 23 to No. 14 to take USC OG Aloe Vera Tucker.
The OTC Trade Value Chart referenced in the article is here:
That got me to thinking about the Barnes trade.
On the one hand, it appears that the Lions also overpaid by a considerable margin (receiving 792 points and giving up 1100 points if the Lions pick at No. 3 overall in Rd 4).
However, let’s say the Lions had a late 3rd Rd grade on Barnes (90-96 range), and a late 5th/early 6th Rd grade (172-192 range) on Jefferson. At that point, the deal makes more sense and is relatively equal.
This might explain why a deal looks uneven on the surface, but based on team’s internal evaluation of a prospect, they might be willing to “pay more” than what on the surface looks like a “fair market” deal.
I think there’s more to it than that. Holmes is looking at the bigger picture of next year. With the Rams pick, plus 3 compensatory picks, we were slated to have 11 picks next year. With only 6 this year, he didn’t mind sending a future asset away to get someone they like now. I’ve heard many people talk about how this draft basically ended after about 4 rounds, so they likely didn’t think a player they loved would still be there in the 5th. The one thing the trades charts don’t factor in is the relative strength of each draft. This is likely a weaker draft than next year, meaning that the higher picks are more valuable and the lower picks are less valuable. In a deeper draft like next year, higher picks will be less valuable and lower picks will be more valuable. This year its about quality, which is why Holmes made the move up. Next year is about quantity, which is why Cleveland was happy to gain an extra pick that should be pretty high in the 4th. But with us having a comp pick at the end of the 3rd round, Holmes probably felt like he could deal one away and still come out on top.
First, I do believe we overpaid relative to the chart. And that was my gut instinct at the time as well. I think several teams overpaid this year for various reasons. But second, don’t forget to drop our 2022 pick we gave them by a round. A future pick is valued as a round less than a current pick. So we gave up two 5th round picks value wise to move up to grab Barnes.
Pick values were skewed this year due to Covid and opt outs. Plus the smaller draft eligible class.
Next year’s picks were supposed to be valued more highly this time around due to the expected return towards normalcy for next years draft and all those additional players who will be draft eligible ie normal sized class plus those who returned for the extra year.
It comes down to how you wish to view it.
Right now, the Lions felt it was worth it to get a player they wanted at the cost of a draft pick next year as well the the pick this year.
You can look at it again next year once you know what that pick next year actually ends up being and who is available at that point of the draft. Decide if they might have been better off waiting.
That’s very hard to do since very few of us would have guessed the route they took this draft outside of Sewell. Not sure many had them going back to back DL.
In the end, just have to hope they were right. That’s way more than I would have given the last group. I would have just presumed they were wrong.