Another takeaway from this year is how long the Lion 4th down advantage will actually be an advantage anymore going into next season?
Early on in his career here, Dan was an outlier going for it on fourth down. While some feel that was some secret strategy, I felt that it was more a simple odds bet by a coach trying to get his team a win when they needed a confidence boost and had a bad record. Over time though it became an identity and then an advantage.
However, yesterday you saw the commanders turn the 4th down advantage against us. And as more teams start to adopt to use and become good at it, I wonder if the Lions 4th down “secret advantage” the past couple of seasons may start to fade a bit.
It’s been a big part of our success so if our superpower is countered we might have to adjust to stay on top!
Stop being aggressive bc other teams are realizing they also need to be aggressive?
This is who Dan is. He believes in it and he is committed to it. He isn’t going to stop. Just like he isn’t going to rest starters the last game of the year.
Sure what I’m saying though is that if you know the other guy can potentially beat you at your own chess match, then perhaps your own agressiveness may come back to bite you.
Or just mentally the mental mojo starts working against you vs with you.
There’s a whole team psychology behind this stuff and the minute somebody else starts imposing their will on you and or you screw up a few times starts creating doubt in player’s coaches minds. Total sport psychology.
Anyway, we’ve grown accustomed the fact that we are just going to win those 4th downs more times than not. But that’s not necessarily a guarantee. The game evolves and we’re seeing that now.
Hell we’ll probably have a different OC calling plays next year as well so there’s just all kinds of variables that come into play.
As a psychologist with a background in sports as a specialty…I get it…but what you not accounting for is why everything works for Dan. He is 1 of 1. He is authentically genuinely himself and the players love it. If he were to suddenly change his philosophy after a loss like this, it would be kneejerk and unauthentic and lack conviction. That lack of conviction would also make the players nervous and start to have self-doubt. This is entirely different from a person who is stubborn and refuses to change despite antidotal evidence that suggests change is necessary. We are talking about one of the most forward thinking, prepared coaches in the NFL. He is incredibly locked in when it comes to his intellectual iq and his emotional iq. He is reflective and looks inward a great deal. He is open to new ideas as stated in their regime philosophy of servant leadership. This is not a bullheaded man who is stubborn. Also the data does not suggest he should change. He has been highly successful with his style, highly successful. The commanders going for it on 4th down did not defeat the Detroit Lions. The 5 total turnovers, cute and inconsistent play-calling by ben Johnson and the 19 players on IR including 6 HUGE PRO BOWL ESQUE talent were the reasons the Lions got beat. Dan should not and will not change his philosophy. Furthermore, he has a locker room full of MEN like him who do not want him to change his philosophy.
Sure but other coaches are authentic too and they have players that believe in them uniquely as well.
All I’m saying is that the dynamic is changing in the NFL and there are going to be other teams doing this more and equally as well or better at some point. So the advantage you used to get by doing this when other teams weren’t perhaps starts being muted when other teams also start becoming successful on 4th down, which means scoring 7 pts vs 3 pts or just punting like they used to do in the past. The longer you extend drives affects what another coach can do when he gets the ball back too.
Nobody knows how it’s going to play out until next year comes. It’ll be interesting to see how it all shakes out. Plus Dan’s gotta find a new OC to deal with the play call duties as well now that BJ has split for CHI.
that you have your opinion and you are digging in and you attempted to educated on sports psychology not realizing that you were talking to a sports psychologist. Dan is not changing. End of story.