Lots of talk about Hopkins and for good reason. That guy can play on Sundays. But we need to look a little closer at what actually happened in 2022 before we panic or party at this point.
In 2022 Amon Ra was THE guy here. Period. 146 targets, 106 catches (a 72% catch rate) for 1,161 yards and 6 TDs. Wow. Incredible. In 16 games and he lost time V. New England. That breakdown ain’t changing.
The guy with the 2nd most targets in 202 was (drum roll please)…D’Andre Swift with 70 and he had 48 catches. A 68% catch rate which isn’t awesome fro a RB. Good, yes but not awesome. Kalif raymond was 3rd which also surprised me. Kalif doesn’t get a lot of respect here but this dude has been really, really good as a returner and solid as a WR. Our 3rd most targeted guy. Then Goff looked to Josh Reynolds and Chark before Hock shows. Chark has 52 targets and 30 catches (a 58% catch rate…p[retty good for an outside WR). Chark had 45 yards/game for us and had a lot of big catches down the stretch. TJ had 43 targets in 7 games which is about 6 targets/game. In a 17 game season that is 104 targets. Wow. NOW…that was early in the season when injuries piled up. But yes, a TE is a HUGE part of Ban Johnson and Dan Campbell’s game plan.
Now we are replacing Swift, Hock and Chark. Can the Lions get production from the replacement guys that will exceed 2022’s production levels?
I was on the “we have to bring back Chark” train but now I see things differently. Chark’s biggest catches overall were contested catches. Marvin Jones has ALWAYS been excellent at that. To me that is not a downgrade at all. A lot of folks are looking at Marvin’s 2022 production levels which is fair. Marvin had 81 targets but only 46 catches. The 81 targets would have been 2nd on the Lions in 2022. Marvin’s 2022 catch rate was 56% which isn’t amazing but also isn’t awful. Marvin was 4th on the Jags in terms of targets. Kirk, Jones and TE Engram were the top 3 targets in 2022 with the Jags and NONE of them averaged more than 13.2 YPC. In 2022 Chark averaged 16.7 YPC and Hock averaged 15.2 YPC. It is clear to me the Lions WANT a deep threat. It is also clear to me that Trevor Lawrence isn’t a great deep ball guy. The Jags won based on quick routes and YAC.
Can Marvin be a deep threat here while Jameson Williams serves his suspension? Further, can Marvin replace Chark when Chark was healthy? I think he can. Marvin went from a solid career with solid numbers to pedestrian numbers with the Jags. Marvin had 7 TOTAL TDs with the Jags in two seasons there but in Detroit Marvin had 3 seasons with 9 TDs alone. Further, Marvin had three seasons with 14.5 or MORE YPC/season. And most importantly Marvin is a healthy guy. Solid overall in terms of games started. Marvin is 33 but I think for 1 more season he can play this game. I feel every bit as good about Marvin as I did about Chark. I think Chark is more talented BUT DJ is a MUCH higher injury risk. Marvin is a Pro, knows how to play the game and can catch the football.
Replacing Swift and Hock isn’t a concern for me at all. TE is a deeper room. James Mitchell and rookie laPorta can replace Hock for my $ and we have Wright and Shane still. I believe Gibbs will replace Swift. I just don’t have a concern there at all.
I don’t think this club needs Hopkins overall. A,on Ra is the #1 here. Jameson Williams will be back and he is getting his reps now. Marvin Jones can play the Chark role for 2023. We still have Kalif and Reynolds. Then we have our 7th rd. rookie for deep depth IF he makes the roster.
I like where this club is at in terms of WR and I LOVE where we are with the TE room. Thoughts?
And 2nd leading receiver, stats wise. After last year I’m done sleeping on 'Lif. Especially after the Lions media team doubled up with that outstanding Under The Helmet piece.
I agree here. He was in the past, but now I think more of a “always open / can make the tough catches / can get you some YAC” kind of guy. Which for the record is in no way a slight on MJJ. Loved him here before and love him here now.
Tell you who I’d really like to get back.
Marvin Hall!
He didn’t get a lot of targets, but, he caught everything thrown his way and was a burner down the sidelines.
I think we’re gonna see some pretty wild formations out of our offense this year. A lot of heavy, 2 RB multiple TE sets. Lots of Gibbs in the slot, lots of ARSB in the backfield (which we’ve already seen of course). Lif over the top until Jamo gets back. Marvin may not be much of a separator, but in heavy sets he won’t have to be. The defense will be heavy and tight too. Marvin will have more room to work with than he’s used to.
Then once Jamo returns I expect the offense to go Super Saiyan.
Yeah it’s tricky to rely on a 7th round rookie right out of the gate so hopefully he hits the ground running. Like you said he should be very familiar with what we ask him to do, I doubt we’ll make it overly complicated. But he’s got to make the active roster first.
This probably deserves its own thread but ladies and gentleman our 2023 James Houston. This guy will probably take over Marvin & Reynolds role by mid season if not sooner.
I hope you’re right. I liked him enough coming out. Not a lot of variety to his game but his one-trick is highly valuable, especially for us.
I do too. I think all of them will spend plenty of time in the backfield as well. I honestly think Cabinda’s kind of superfluous for us, but I know the staff loves him. He really needs to show some receiving chops this year.
Some Densters and a lot of people outside of Detroit have resisted the notion that Jahmyr Gibbs will be used significantly as a WR. Some have criticized his draft slot because he’s a RB. But this Day 2 mini-camp observation from POD:
“One last important note on Gibbs: during a section of positional drills, the quarterbacks are working solely with the receivers, while the tight ends and running backs are at the other end of the field. During that portion of practice, Gibbs has consistently been with the wide receivers.”
Gibbs could well be used more as WR than RB, especially in our first 6 games. WR Gibbs? The BNL are good at putting players in positions where their talent will shine.
Yeah I hope you’re right, but this is pretty much true of every player drafted on day 3 in league history. And most still don’t make it. Especially 7th rounders. I’m hopeful, but I’m also realistic.
I agree that the rookie WR Antoine Green was a real shot to make this roster and a shot to contribute day one. 6’2" and 200 pounds. That is good size for a WR. His last two seasons were VERY productive and he is an example of a guy who benefitted from playing and staying. He did exactly what we need in college. His last two college season were solid. A combined 1,410 yards, 12 TDs, long catches for 80 and 76 yards, 74 combined catches making his average the last two seasons combined a healthy 19.05 YPC. Exactly what we need.
Now, Green should get to learn from Marvin and that should help Green adjust.
I think the WR room looks like that before week 1:
Amon Ra, Jameson Williams, Marvin Jones, Kalif Raymond, Josh Reynolds and Antoine Green. Remove Williams for the first six games. We can win with that.
If you are a DC and you see the Lions w/o a deep threat, are you gonna let ARSB carve a guy up off the line all day and keep running his game?
Bellicheat takes away your #1 Option and it has been effective, and copied as a strategy. Ok Lions, beat me with David Montgomery and Marvin Jones.
Yikes is how we should be reacting to that.
No, I dont believe Marvin can replace Chark because he doesnt do what Chark does. Marvin is also smaller and slower. Marvin catches contested balls on the boundary…back shoulder, timing throws and some jump balls, but what he doesnt do is get those safeties backpeddaling or leaning to him. He was a terrible notorious body catcher his first year or so here too. Also, hes 33 man…Im not counting on any WR at 33.
Can LaPorta be a seam buster like Hock? Maybe?
Can Gibbs be SwiftPremium? TheoRiddickly yes…but…rookie.
Everybody Loves Raymond, yes thats true. He has been a gem. But he and Tom Cruise are the same size. The Millisecond he loses his quickness/suddenness advantage, he is an Insurance Agent.
Ben is gonna bring some New Funk and make some DCs say Ow! more than Larry Blackmon, but fellas, We Caught The League By Surprise last year. Notgunnahappen that way this time.
The talent level at WR is Very Concerning. Jamo may change that, but only after your kids have moved on from their Halloween Candy and are talking about Turkey Time coming soon.
Not Acceptable. Nuke the first half of the year and deal with the fallout later.
Sure will be interesting to see. What sorta juice is that rook brining? (not that I 'd trust a rook to lean on for weeks 1-6)
Gibby is gonna be sick AF…mark my words.
Montgomery is what I feel Billicheat would be trying to take away. Our OL is improved and so are both RBs. That’s our bread’n’butter, IMO.
