Clemson beats Louisville 20-19 Friday night which should eliminate Louisville if they weren’t already eliminated.
# Here are Week 12’s college football games with the biggest Playoff implications
full article at link.
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10. Arizona (6-3) at No. 25 Cincinnati (7-2), Noon, FS1
9. NC State (5-4) at No. 15 Miami (7-2), 3:30 p.m., ESPN
How ridiculous is the ACC? Miami is the conference’s highest-ranked team in the eyes of the CFP committee at No. 15, yet sits seventh in the league standings.
8. No. 13 Utah (7-2) at Baylor (5-4), 7 p.m., ESPN2
7. No. 24 South Florida (7-2) at Navy (7-2), Noon, ESPN2
6. No. 19 Virginia (8-2) at Duke (5-4), 3:30 p.m., ESPN
5. No. 21 Iowa (6-3) at No. 17 USC (7-2), 3:30 p.m., BTN
A USC win keeps its at-large CFP hopes alive — currently 20 percent, according to our model — with a potential Playoff elimination meeting at Oregon next Saturday. At 5-1 in Big Ten play, the Trojans are still looking up at Ohio State and Indiana, but a victory over Iowa would bode well for a two-loss winner of USC at Oregon on Nov. 22 to make it as an at-large, if Oregon beats Minnesota this week. Getting there won’t be an easy task for the Trojans, as Iowa showcased against the Ducks last week, losing 18-16 on a last-second field goal.
4. TCU (6-3) at No. 12 BYU (8-1), 10:15 p.m., ESPN
3. No. 9 Notre Dame (7-2) at No. 22 Pittsburgh (7-2), Noon, ABC
Allow us to introduce the most influential team in the CFP rat race: Pitt! Winners of five straight and the top scoring offense in the ACC (39.7 points per game), the Panthers have Notre Dame, at No. 16 Georgia Tech and No. 15 Miami the rest of the way. Pitt’s best chance to make the CFP is winning the ACC crown, which has nothing to do with Saturday’s non-conference showdown, as Pat Narduzzi (hilariously) acknowledged this week. However, taking down Notre Dame widens the path for the ACC and everyone else — the Irish are a near lock for the Playoff with a win, but their odds drop to 30 percent with a third loss, according to our model.
Line: Notre Dame -12.5
2. No. 11 Oklahoma (7-2) at No. 4 Alabama (8-1), 3:30 p.m., ABC
The first of two blockbuster SEC games that could reshape the Playoff. This one is a must-win for Oklahoma, currently the “first team out” of the 12-team field. The Athletic’s projection model gives the Sooners a 22-percent chance to reach the CFP; a win bumps that up to 52 percent, with Missouri and LSU left to play, but a loss plummets them to 3 percent. Oklahoma’s defense, sixth in FBS at 4.2 yards per play allowed, relented a bit in the loss to Ole Miss and road upset over Tennessee, but the team should be well-rested coming off a bye. For Alabama and Heisman hopeful quarterback Ty Simpson, a win essentially locks down a CFP spot.
1. No. 10 Texas (7-2) at No. 5 Georgia (8-1), 7:30 p.m., ABC
The Longhorns have an uphill climb to reach the Playoff, and it starts with another must-win on Saturday. An upset would boost Texas’s CFP chances from 8 to 35 percent in The Athletic’s model, with home games against Arkansas and No. 3 Texas A&M to finish out the regular season. A loss drops those odds to 2 percent. Quarterback Arch Manning looked like the player we expected to see this season in the win over Vanderbilt (25 of 33, 328 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT), the defense is still formidable (34 sacks, plus-8 turnover margin), and Texas has won four in a row to scratch back into the top 10. But that ugly October loss to Florida will likely doom the Horns unless they can topple Georgia, which is managing just fine with Gunner Stockton behind center.