Tigers vs A's: July 7-9 : Harris dilemna, trade or keep Skubal

On deck: Athletics

:play_button: Series: Three games at Comerica Park, Detroit

:play_button: First pitch: All games are at 6:40 p.m.

:play_button: TV/radio: All games are on Detroit Sports Net, 97.1 FM

:play_button: Probables: Tuesday — RHP J.T. Ginn (7-4, 3.04) vs. LHP Tarik Skubal (4-4, 3.15); Wednesday — LHP Jeffrey Springs (3-8, 5.79) vs. RHP Troy Melton (4-1, 2.05); Thursday — RHP Jack Perkins (2-4, 6.75) vs. LHP Framber Valdez (4-6, 4.29).

Scouting report

:play_button: Ginn, Athletics: He’s coming off back-to-back quality starts, beating the Angels and Dodgers. The 27-year-old leans on an elite sinker (93-94 mph), off which he throws a nasty changeup to lefties (.188 batting average, 31% whiff) and sliders to righties. He also mixes a cutter and four-seam fastball. Lefties do most of the damage against him (.356 on-base, 740 OPS).

:play_button: Skubal, Tigers: He was completely back in ace form against the Yankees in the Bronx last time out. He struck out nine and allowed one earned run over six innings. This will be just his 12th start, which is why he was not selected to the All-Star game. His last start against the Athletics, last September in Sacramento, was nightmarish. In a game where he struck out 12 in 6.2 innings, he was charged with six runs, just one earned and lost the game on a two-out grand slam home run by Shea Langeliers.

# For Tigers’ Scott Harris, trading Tarik Skubal is both power play and Catch-22
full article at link

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It’s a critical time for the Tigers. In these next five-plus weeks, Harris is going to have to thread a needle between pushing for the present and protecting what still looms as a bright future for this organization.

This can’t be a selloff, like it was in 2017. The foundation is too strong. Strong enough, possibly, to withstand the pain of losing a homegrown star like Skubal.

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Quick assessment.

The Tigers are coming off a 5-1 road trip and have the best record in the American League, 18-12, since June 1.

And yet.

With 72 games left in the season and 22 games left before the Aug. 3 trade deadline, they are still facing a 7.5-game deficit (eight games in the loss column) in the Central Division.
… That the Tigers rotation has allowed four runs or less in 37 of their last 38 starts speaks to that. That they have slugged an American League-most 54 homers since June 1 speaks to that. That their .797 OPS in June was second best in the American League speaks to that.

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But what is president Scott Harris supposed to do with that? In Skubal, he holds the most precious trade chip in baseball. Casey Mize, Jack Flaherty, Kenley Jansen, Kyle Finnegan and Gleyber Torres are also pending free agents and possible trade candidates.

But Skubal is his power play. It’s also his Catch-22.

Any move he makes with Skubal will be risky. Almost certainly, trading him as a two-month rental, a free-agent-to-be with still some $10 million on his contract, will yield lesser value in return.

But, to make no move would be infinitely worse.

Unless Harris had access to a crystal ball which could show him that keeping Skubal for the rest of the season will result in the Tigers getting into the playoffs. Which he doesn’t.

So, what’s the play?

The optimal play would be to trade Skubal, not just for prospects but for assets that can help the Tigers’ push forward this season.

That sounds counterintuitive, for sure. How can they trade Skubal and get better? Maybe they can’t. But the rotation without Skubal — Mize, Flaherty, Troy Melton, Framber Valdez, Keider Montero and, hopefully by the end of the month, Justin Verlander and Jackson Jobe — is still formidable.

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The suiter pool for Skubal is smaller than you think. The only teams that will be interested in paying such a high lease price for the rest of the season will be those few teams with legitimate World Series aspirations. Teams fighting to get into the wild-card draw probably aren’t going to have or be willing to spend the resources required to acquire him.

In the National League, teams like Brewers, Phillies, Braves and Cubs have to decide if getting Skubal gives them a fighting chance to beat the Dodgers and at what cost? The Dodgers, the team that could probably offer the best package back to the Tigers, might not feel the need to get in the bidding, especially with how weak, relatively, the American League looks right now.

The fact the American League is so wide open is a double-edged sword for contending teams like the Rays and Mariners who might rightly think they can win the pennant with what they have, even if acquiring Skubal might give them their best chance of beating the Dodgers or whoever in the World Serie

# Why Keider Montero has emerged as X-factor for Tigers’ playoff push
full article at link

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Hinch has told us what he thinks of Montero by his actions. Last season, in the biggest moments, on the brightest stage, Hinch used Montero five times in the postseason.

Clearly, he trusts Montero.

And this season?

Montero has started 15 games and has a 5-5 record with a 0.971 WHIP, which trails only Jacob Waguespack (0.724), Troy Melton (0.795) and Tarik Skubal (0.914).

When the Tigers’ starting pitchers got healthy, they could have moved Montero to Triple-A to keep him stretched out. But they decided to move him to the bullpen, where he remains a weapon.

Hinch used him against the New York Yankees on July 1, and Montero was brilliant. Montero pitched in the 10th and 11th innings, in a high-pressure, high-intensity moment, striking out three and not allowing any hits or runs in a 6-2 win at Yankee Stadium. Montero earned the win.

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The Tigers want to keep Montero stretched out, capable of pitching multiple innings.

So Hinch went into the three-game series against Texas knowing he would use him in a multiple-inning stint. But how would he respond to just a few days rest? What would his stuff be like?

The answer was encouraging: Montero didn’t allow any hits or runs, even though he didn’t get a strikeout.

He was so good, Hinch couldn’t take him out.

ALL-STAR TALK: Even 3-time All-Star Riley Greene has room to improve for Tigers

“It’s just rare nowadays to have someone come in and get the final nine outs,” Hinch said. “From what he can do, we asked this guy to go five and six innings [as a starter], there’s no reason he can’t get three innings at the end of a game. The way he’s throwing the ball, it’s nearly impossible to take the ball out of his hand.”

Then again, Montero figures he can’t be taken out if Hinch can’t find him. He refuses to walk past Hinch after an inning because he fears getting the dreaded handshake, meaning his day is done

“He does that even when he starts,” Hinch said, smiling. “I have to track him down to take him out.

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Having Montero in the bullpen creates a beneficial trickle effect.

Think of it this way: By giving the ball to Montero on Saturday, the Tigers did not have to use Kenley Jansen.

Hinch was able to give Jansen another day rest, and he was effective on Sunday. He threw a quick, clean three-out inning to earn the save.

Remember, Jansen is 38 years old. And every time he gets an extra day of rest, it’s important.

Not just in the short term, but in the long term.

You could say that Montero should be starting, and I would have a hard time arguing your point. Certainly, that’s one option.

But think of it this way: Montero played a key role in two of the five wins on this six-game trip.

It’s not pitching chaos.

It’s Keider Chaos. The X-factor doing his part, finding ways to help this team win

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I’m trading Skubal regardless of what our record is, or could be. I personally think there is a path for us to be a better team this year by trading Skubal.

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Don’t you all see the genius?

Step 1. Trade away players who are good now, because you aren’t good enough to win a World Series now. Develop a farm system, look to the future.

Step 2. Wait years until a small handful of players from the farm system develop into true studs. But don’t provide enough support around them, so you don’t actually win the World Series (or get very close).

Step 3. Trade the studs away for new young players and new players in the farm system. Look to the future.

Repeat forever! Hooray!

Sigh.

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I think they should keep Skubal and win the World Series

But that’s just my opinion

https://x.com/i/status/2074569503699046482

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Goodbye GIF

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Left Right Paths GIF by Scratch Garden

Yea Right GIF

Jobe is scheduled to start Tuesday for low-A Lakeland in his first rehab appearance.

Its Happening Ron Paul GIF

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Today?

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Sell

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I thought this was Thursday but yeah I guess it is today.

Joey Cora has been given the Stop Sign.

Finally.

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Not Joey

Episode 9 Joey GIF by Friends

2-0 Tigers after 1
2run shot by Keith

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Soooo Skoobs bobble head day today and tomorrow, trade him thursday/asap while his wheels are just wobbly and not yet falling off?

He’s getting better and thats great news

Classic addition by subtraction. Hope things work out well for Cora elsewhere, but he won’t be missed. At least not by this guy.