Mirrors my thoughts
# It’s way past time to panic over Detroit Tigers. Yet the AL Central math still favors them
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Just as they promised they weren’t panicking Thursday, Sept. 18, at Comerica Park when the Cleveland Guardians finished off a sweep, knocked out their ace – Tarik Skubal (gulp!) – in a 3-1 torture session and skipped town with all the momentum in the Central Division race.
Maybe they aren’t.
But everyone else is, and for good reason: A complete collapse in the American League Central is now in play, and it’s getting harder by the minute to see a way to avoid it.
And yet, there is one. So, take a breath … if you can. Oxygen remains, and it is long past time to inhale a big ol’ cannister of it.
Just make sure to exhale. Slowly. While considering: Math.
It’s still on the Tigers’ side, even if pitching and hitting and defense don’t seem to be. Yes, they are in trouble. Big trouble. Doo-doo trouble. And, yes, the annoying Guardians are coming.
Again.
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Nobody likes to think about a collapse. It’s out there, though, and beginning to feel a bit inevitable.
The Tigers have lost six of seven and 15 of 22 since Aug. 23, when they held an 11½-game lead in the Central. That wasn’t even over the Guardians, who were 12½ back that day.
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Also: math. It’s not as bad as it seems. For one, they don’t need a big winning streak. They just need a win … and then three more.
Think of it this way: if the Tigers can take two of three against the Braves – surging now but also suffering through a subpar season – and Cleveland takes three of four from the Twins, the Guardians will only gain half a game. Which means the Tigers would travel to Cleveland for their three-game series next week leading by three games.
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The Guardians are streaking. They’ve won seven in a row and 12 of 13. Talk about late-season magic, eh?
The Tigers can relate – they were piling up wins down the stretch a year ago.
If you’re looking for hope, consider that the Tigers lost 12 of 13 through mid-July and then found their way out of it, with a run in which they went 18-7. They can do it again.
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Win just one of those – and Tarik Skubal is set to start again Wednesday – and they travel to Boston for the final three games with a two-game lead over Cleveland. Win one in Boston – again, not guaranteed considering the state of recent play, but far from impossible – and the Tigers would force the Guardians to sweep the playoff-chasing Texas Rangers in their last series.
If Cleveland doesn’t, the Tigers win the Central.
All they have to do is win four games: two against Atlanta, one against Cleveland, and one against Boston. That would force Cleveland to win eight of its last 10, which also means winning 20 of its last 23 – remember, they’ve already won 12 of 13.
If the Guardians slow down even a little – say, winning just seven of their final 10, the Tigers win the Central as long as they finish 4-5. That’s not even .500 baseball. But it is better baseball than they’ve been playing.
So, can they settle down and find a few moments this weekend to win the series against Atlanta? To get the critical hit? To make the essential pitch? Sure they can; they’ve done just that many times this season.
Do that, and the story begins to change – in a hurry. The math is out there, and it’s still favorable.
The Tigers just have to find a way to take it … and breathe. And so do you.
