TV/radio: Friday – Apple TV/97.1; Saturday-Sunday – FanDuel Sports Detroit/97.1.
Probables: Friday – RHP Luis Castillo (5-5, 3.31) vs. LHP Tarik Skubal (10-2, 2.02); Saturday – RHP George Kirby (3-4, 4.22) vs. RHP Casey Mize (9-2, 2.63); Sunday – RHP Logan Gilbert (2-3, 3.88) vs. RHP Jack Flaherty (5-9, 4.70).
Castillo, Mariners: He beat the Tigers in Seattle in April, allowing two runs in seven innings and he’s coming off two strong starts where he allowed only a run in 13 innings against the Rangers and Pirates. He’s 32 years old but still bullying hitters with his 95-mph four-seamer (.174 average, 25.6% whiff). His slider, sinker and changeup all have negative run values, per Statcast. Yet, he’s still holding opponents to a light .239/.298/.356 slash line.
Skubal, Tigers: In his last two starts, he’s gone seven innings with at least 10 strikeouts. The only other Tigers pitcher to do that in back-to-back outings was Hall-of-Famer Jack Morris in 1986. He’s had three straight starts with no runs, no walks and at least 10 strikeouts. The only other MLB pitchers to do that were Sandy Koufax (1965), Randy Johnson (2004) and Clayton Kershaw (2015). He’s also won his last 10 straight starts at Comerica.
I think Vierling and Meadows will improve, not saying over 700 but can definitely get their OPS above 600 as they get their timing and legs back.
Rogers good backup catcher
Sweeney, AAA bound just a matter of when carpenter returns
With 1 start left before the ASG, here is the game log of Flaherty. I like to put starting pitcher games into 4 buckets-
Dominator ( 1 or below whip, up to 2 ER with big Ks)
Quality start not neccissarily the MLB definition
Muddle start- clearly didnt have the stuff or was fooling guys, but gave the team a chance/innings
Asskicking -self explanatory
Dominators-6 or 7(Jul8 borderline)
QS-4 or 5
Muddles-4
Asskickings-3
The ERA of 4.7 doesnt tell the season long story so far, as 2 of his 3 asskickings were extra ugly. Games like that happen.
On average he goes 5.1 innings. Nowadays, that is fantastic, as 32x6=192 is very valuable, and kind of rare. Care to guess how many MLB starters pitched 193 innings or more in 2024?
Six
So giving us 170 innings is big. You need a 185+ guy and at least 2 of these if your staff is relatively healthy
Is he a high end #2? Not this year, but tbh, last year with Detroit was probably the end of his prime, as he got to MLB very young and his 2019 was gigantic.
Very good #3, which makes Olson a great #4 having Mize pop off for so far a very good #2 year. Maybe he and Flaherty flip flop 2/3 depending on the year…
TL;DR- He has given us some kind of a shot to win in 15 of 18 games. That he is 5-9 is pretty unlucky
Thanks for posting that. I found it interesting to look at the runs vs earned runs in all the games. Five times he has given up 4 runs or more and only once was there an unearned run in those five games.
Fact is that was the only unearned run given up in any of his starts, a testament to the defense the team is playing. Which is somewhat surprising when you look at the lineup variations Hinch utilizes night in night out.
