I love that dismissive qualifier ‘aside from winning all those super bowls…’
Sure, not running from that. Drew Bledsoe was a 4 time Pro Bowler who threw 251 TD passes. Can you say for fact with Drew and not Brady and no QB draft picks no SB’s? Nope, you certainly cannot and there were some half way decent defenses involved, like Belichick’s side of the ball, not Charlie Weiss et all. You want to implement “how to go about the process” by what happened ONCE in the history of the game? No. My point won’t waiver. Once Brady WAS established for what he was - then what? None of those backups were worth it save Cassel and Jimmy G. All the other ones went the other way.
The proof of this pudding is this. They wasted a ton of picks that got cut and from Brady on, NONE of the QB’s the genius Belichick brought in became the NEXT Brady now did they? They did what smart teams do. They dropped an upper half of the first round pick on their starting franchise QB. They didn’t get him in the 5th round, because practically NOBODY does. My question is a simple one. If every QB drafted (backups can be had easily in FA), by the Pats from Brady’s 2nd year to this season with Jones, were instead a position player selected, do you believe the Pats would have a stronger team? I certainly do.
Not if Bob Quinn is drafting. Smaahtest guy in the room. It’s little wonder New England took the blind squirrels and nuts approach to the draft with guys like that as part of the “braintrust”.
Funny. How much did the QBs drafted contribute? That’s how you determine value, not soft fluff above. If Brady would have gone out… he was a durable QB. Those types show themselves over time. Taking mid round to late round swings as a practice to either look for the next Brady, or build tradeable assets that outperform their draft pick (plus wasted time on a roster doing nothing) is foolish and sorry but the data proves that out.
I’m with @3rdRGR on this.
Taking 3rd and 4th round quarterbacks is deciding to do something that has a success rate of 10% or less and sacrificing an opportunity to take a position player, which has a success rate of 50% or more.
Yes, you can find the outliers, but counting on a winning lottery ticket isn’t a good practice.
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I think we can speculate with a very high level of certainty. If the Pats followed your wisdom Pats don’t draft the greatest qb of all time and dont win all those Superbowls.
does a 3rd round or later position player have a 50% or more “success” rate?
I’d like to see that data on that and how ‘success’ is measured.
Also, you are both welcome to your opinions. doesn’t make you right. I’m not saying I’m ‘right’ or BBs philosophy is ‘right’ either. The draft is a lottery. A QB is the highest risk highest reward
I’m in favor or spending a late round pick on a high reward lottery ticket every other year or so. If you aren’t then la dee da. I know the Pats are glad they did
I’m going to bet under 30% of round 4-7 picks make it to a second contract on the teams that select them and the ‘success’ rate with rounds 5-7 less than 20% of that for all positions combined
We’ve gone around on this before, and I posted the list of QBs drafted in rounds 3 and 4 since 2000, and it’s a flaming trash heap of 50+ nobodies, Kirk Cousins, and Russell Wilson.
Meanwhile, in that same time period, the Lions alone have drafted Graham Glasgow, JRM, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jonah Jackson, JOkwara, Kenny Galloday, Travis Swanson, Larry Warford, Devin Taylor, Deandre Levy, Sammie Lee Hill, Cliff Avril, Cory Redding, and others.
I’m not going to take the time to analyze success rate, but it’s pretty clear that it’s 5X or more for position players compared to quarterbacks.
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so you would rather argue mostly anecdotally. If you do take the time to quantify and analyze success rate to further substantiate your opinion, I’d be willing to listen
I’d also bet several beers the ‘50% or more’ success rate number for later round non-qb picks is pure fiction
Yeah, I’m going to let that sit here.
I’ve posted the list of QBs taken since 2000. I’ve also shown what one of the shittiest drafting teams in the league has gotten in those rounds.
You’ve said that the Patriots are glad they drafted Tom Brady.
I’d also caution that first round QBs are far from a slam dunk. There’s a 25 year trend study floating around the web that shows first round QBs have the lowest all pro rate at 5.3% (LBers are highest at 26.4%)
They also have the second highest bust rate at 40.4% (Centers have the lowest at 8.3%)
I mean if you’re digging in that (to paraphrase) ‘the success rate for middle to late round qbs is low, and the success rate for all other positions combined is higher’ I’m going to tell you the usefulness of that observation is suspect
Because I guarantee regardless how you individually quantify ‘success’ the success rate of all late round pics is low. certainly much lower than ‘50% or more’
Let’s assume more realistically -all- positions combined in rounds 4-7 have a 28% success rate (skewing toward lbers and lineman who can always play special teams) but QBs have a 5% success rate…
I’ll take a flier every few years on a late-middle round QB because the potential reward is much higher for low risk
Hate to do it… but here it go…
Glasgow 3rd made big FA money
Golladay 3rd made big FA money
JOk 3rd Important rotational guy here
J Jackson 3rd Starter here
JRM 4th Starter here
Cephus 5th Was a starter here prior to injury
Fulgam 6th Starter elsewhere
A Bryant 4th Important rotational player doing well
Oruwariye 5th Starter for us 3rd in the NFL in INT’s
Crosby 5th Swing backup with starting experience
Dahl 5th Started here
T Walker 3rd Starter doing well
Agnew 5th Starter here made a Pro Bowl
Zettel 6th Starter here and SF during their SB run
Are there a lot of world beaters here? No. How many of them started here or on other teams? Every single one of them to varying degrees. Many are still here or starting now elsewhere getting good FA money like Glasgow/Golladay. Some will be cashing in next year like Walker and AO. All my point is, are players like this, even from a GM who got fired (justifiably), worth MORE than name your 3-6th round draft pick position player? I believe a trend develops that tends to support my case. Yelling Tom Brady in the 5th does not change this trend.
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QB’s period. Which reinforces my point not to waste picks on QB’s. If you pick a QB anywhere it is going to be more likely a position player would be more rewarding. But IF you need that franchise QB, there is one place that is better than any other place to try to get one. 1st round. The conversation about bust rate is a separate conversation. A valid one and it’s risky. But that is where franchise QB’s come from. The rest is exception territory.
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Oh Boy(le)
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you speak about these concepts as if they are mutually exclusive. They are not
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take a QB in the first round of you feel that position is the missing piece and the right QB is there and the team is ready to compete
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draft a mid to late round QB every few years to keep a churn of young talent in the system
Tim Boyle outside Allen Park at mini camp
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I’ll grant you that 100%. Is it a model we should follow? Hell no we should not and the evidence is empirical as to why. Again NE didn’t even follow your “ah haaa” pattern did they? Even they knew striking on a late round QB was not the best plan. They drafted Mac Jones at 15 and he is their guy now.
Of course you do. BTW the Lions followed your model the last 12 years
BB had considered Jimmy G, a late round pick, the heir apparent to Brady. You don’t remember that flap? I’m sure you do…
If you follow my arguments, I’m in favor of both:
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build your team, defense, oline and if you need a QB you can find one by trading up or taking a middle first round QB (check. also see mahomes)
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even if you have an entrenched starter draft a mid to late round qb every few years