Trade analysis: Lions give up moderate value in first round swap

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The trade might have been just five spots up for a 3rd, but I’m definitely okay with it considering he was a solid first round grade, top 10 or 12 by most. At a spot of need. When the remaining players didn’t have first round grades. So if we would have traded up where I feel his value was at say between 12-16, nobody would have called that bad value.

And in the end of the day, we got (what are likely) two above-average starters at corner for two third rounders and a low first. I’ll take that all day.


Two things can be true, Dallas got very good value in this trade down, and so did the Lions in their trade up.


I think Dallas got a great deal. They needed a tackle and Guyton could be a real good one. And it was very likely he’d be there. Now they have a high third too.

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bad link?

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Better one:

Not if one considers that Arnold was ranked between the 9th best and 12th-13th best player overall. Utilizing that metric, the Lions actually came out ahead.


Freebird beat me to it, but I fixed mine as well.

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I think a better way to look at this trade is that the value we gave up would be an equal trade for roughly the 20th pick in the draft…and quite frankly Arnold would still be an excellent value there! I’m on board with this one


Given that he said he was trying to trade up from the teens, it seems Brad was convicted that he was willing to go get his guy no matter what.

It’s also likely that he discussed a few trade packages with the Cowboys, and perhaps preferred to give up just a 3rd this year rather than a 3rd and let’s say the Eagles 4th next year.

He also made the comment that the board seemed to fall nicely for a lot of teams as there weren’t a lot of trades, so in that scenario where teams are happy to just make a pick then the price is higher.

It’s annoying not to have a 3rd, but if Brad is willing to give it up then I’m more than happy with him doing it. If Arnold is a Pro Bowler no one will question the value of the pick.

The Vikings gave up a 5th and a 2025 3rd and 4th to move up 6 spots for Turner. That was just the price of doing business last night.

Yes we tried to trade up in the teens. So while we slightly over paid, we paid less than we were offering other teams.

In a funny way we overpaid yet saved draft capital

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The Lions burned GB, who would have taken him without even having to trade up.
Burned! (Therefore, excellent value added!)

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Here’s how I look at it.

Arnold was considered a top 15 pick, what would it have cost us to (theorytically) pick 14 or pick 12 like @Jman suggested?

Now did we overspend to get him?

Although I’m not the biggest fan of giving up picks, I can understand why Brad made the move.
Personally, because of Brad’s accumen for finding starters in rounds 3-5, I would rather have kept the pick and taken Cooper or Wiggins but I’m fine with Brad driving me around in his Uber and me not back-seat driving.


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Exactly, the best trades are when both teams benefit tremendously.

Cowboys still got their guy, RT Guyton…and get to an extra 3rd.

Good for them.

But we got OUR guy, and that is what is most important.

Just glad he didn’t get to the Packers and we would have to face him twice a year. For a 3rd round pick? Absolutely. What most people are forgetting is we have maybe 4 to 5 roster spots that are “open” so we don’t need a bunch of players we need quality player

Yeah, I don’t think there’s a problem with admitting we overspent to get him. So what? If he hits it will be worth it. It’s like, technically we overspent on Gibbs too because of RB value, but he hit and he’s worth it. That’s all that matters.


I’m not sure I bringing logic like this is allowed. I have been skewered over that shit in the past.

…my bro!!!

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Who is the best draft analyst on the planet? → BRADLEY MF’n HOLMES!
What should we do? → listen to the pundits who are wildly off base every year!

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Came here to say this exact thing. This is exactly how I’m looking at it. He went up to go get a special talent, just like he did with Branch last year and Jamo the year before. I respect his desire to go get the guys he thinks he can build around. We want Brad making picks he’s slamming tables for - those are the guys who are turning this around

I can believe we overspent in terms of analytics accounting, and yet also completely understand why we placed a premium here. This was not only one of the draft’s best overall players, but he was from the program Brad loves and, he plays a position in which we desperately needed a long term solution. When everything aligns like that, paying a premium to secure those services for the next 5 years is extremely defensible.

Again, there are many, many legit reasons to overpay for him, not disputing that. I’m glad we did, Arnold was always one of our most likely trade-up candidates.

It’s like saying “fuk it” and buying the most expensive Anthony Richardson rookie card on eBay right now. If he hits, you will have only paid a fraction of what it’s worth.