For the last year it has been “Tanking for Tua” for Miami. Don’t believe the rumors of them liking Herbert more. The hype will only increase for Miami fans in the days ahead.
Take this to the bank. Miami will draft Tua
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I agree. The question is whether they just bite the bullet and move up to 2.
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Ron Rivera is a defensive minded guy who I don’t think will pass on a generational type DE for his defense. That being said,I know everyone has a price, and Rivera might get an offer he can’t refuse. This will land the Lions a huge gift too. Of course I’m stoked about getting a bunch more draft picks but landing Young will be great for the team. I think he will have more impact than Suh ever did.
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One of two things should happen:
(1) Either Tua is taken at No. 2 overall and the Lions get DE Chase Young; or
(2) Tua is available at No. 3 overall after the Redskins take Young and the Lions have the opportunity to trade down and pick up an extra 2d Rd selection at a bare minimum.
I feel like there are SO many more variables in this draft than previous drafts.
I won’t allow myself to get overly disappointed over any of it, but I will be very excited, if we get to trade down once or twice
If the Redskins set the price of moving up too high and the Lions offer a better deal to move up to No. 3, then there wouldn’t be much incentive for the Dolphins to move to No. 2. No one else has the ammunition.
The Redskins might not mind moving down because they could take one of the top LTs to replace Trent Williams then trade him.
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Which raises the question…Is T-Williams worth the asking price? Innnnnnteresting.
Honestly, I’m more in the camp of drafting a G/T
That is true. Being that the Dolphins have so much capital there is a certain threshold that they will know someone like the Chargers cannot compete.
Though you can’t discount for crazy scenarios. What if SD made Bosa available to the skins. Bosa, their 2nd rounder and something else may get it done.
But in general I think you are correct that if WAS asks for anything beyond 1, 18, and 39 they probably call the bluff. It really just depends on how much they want Tua and how much they think the competition does. QB draft trade value can be all over the place.
Giving up one of the NFL’s best defensive players (a sure thing), plus additional compensation for a draft pick with an history injury and unknown longevity? I don’t think the Chargers are that desperate. I think they will sit tight and take whatever QB lands in their lap and go with Tyrod Taylor for the start of the 2020 season.
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I have no idea how the Chargers feel about Tua. I do know that the Chargers are probably the one team in the league that is most desperate for a massive marketing win.
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We’ll find about around 8:30 p.m. on April 23.
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Here is a compensation guess from The Phinsider by Josh Houtz
If the Dolphins were to move up to three with the Lions, what sort of compensation do you think is fair?
“I think if/when Miami makes a move to acquire the #3 overall pick, it would be in their best interest to start the bidding at a second-round draft pick. And if you are a fan of the Jimmy Johnson trade chart (I am not), it appears that the deal could get done for #5 and one of Miami’s second-round picks. However, I don’t think this is a likely outcome. So, for me, if you believe Tua Tagovailoa is the superior QB—which I do—you offer an additional first-round pick.
In this situation, #5 and #26 to move up to #3 for Tua. That is what I believe a deal could look like, and I believe that is fair compensation for both sides. IF the Dolphins like Tagovailoa above the rest of the draft class.”
LAC are going to be trading up, I just have this feeling.
I cant see a trade up for Tua …Will the Dolphins take him at #5 ? If they do they are only risking money .
A trade up that involves a second pick as compensation especially a first rounder is making an already possible huge mistake in taking Tua a double whammy. When you add another highly valued 1st round prospect in the mix … that costs you two players.
Tua is damaged goods…and a huge risk . Getting healthy as can be and getting on the field for Tua looks likely . The same athlete he was?..Who knows …The real question will be can he stay on it once he gets there and be Elite …That is the issue .
If he is solid when he plays and beats the odds the investment is still huge …a red shirt missed 2020 season only delays a possible re injury…The $34 Million at #3 on a 4 year deal is $8.5 per year, now subtract a year of play and it’s $11.3 per season of play, add in the franchise # for a QB selected in the first with the 5th year option exercised under the new CBA at what is currently $27 Million …( 4 years from now $30+ so we will say $30)…
The 4 years of play if Tua is any good & healthy comes out to $64 Million and $16 per for the 4 years …minus a second player on a cheap contract (If traded up for)
Burrow and Herbert for a 4 year look see and play that starts now in 2020 would be roughly $34 Million and at a value of $8.5 per …if Herbert or Tua are available at #5
Dennis Pitta TE… Dislocation and fracture…surgery needed… three dislocations in five seasons with 16 games played after the first surgery and was Career ending. The 2 additional hip dislocations after the first came on plays with no contact and for no particular reason .
Hiram Eugene Safety… Dislocation, no fracture but surgery needed. Career ending
Lamar Thomas WR …Dislocation and fracture…surgery needed. Career ending
Thomas Tapeh FB…Dislocation, no fracture, but surgery needed. Returned after injury 21 months later to start 8 games and be out of football.
The precedent is that Hip injuries like Tua’s are not good for longevity. Neither are any hip injuries that requires surgery with or without dislocation or fracture …surgery on the hip is a HUGE deal .
Injuries like Tua’s and the risk involved in taking Tua a QB & knowing a much more likely to repeat a dislocation of the hip is considerable compared to never having one before (For all hip dislocations regardless of fracture and regardless if you are an athlete) is a horrible gamble .
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No guts, no glory.
Tua has been called a generational talent and the only worrisome thing for Miami is his long term health.
New Orleans had a similar decision to make 14 years ago with Drew Brees, who was recovering from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. Brees had 4 months of recovery before he could start throwing again. Brees is a smaller QB about the same size as Tua. I’m sure New Orleans was concerned that he might not be able to stay healthy, but still took the gamble.
For the record, I was lobbying for the Lions to sign him despite the surgery.
As we all know, Brees went on to win a Super Bowl and have a hall of fame career.
In years past, a torn up knee meant that your career was over. Today it is routine surgery and they are back playing in less than a year. The same might be said about hip surgery. Who knows?
No guts, no glory. It’s worth a shot.
ammunition we don’t need that many more picks this year…You replace 3 with 6 an another pick an then you get couple high picks in 2021 Miami has more ammo this year that doesn’t stop other teams from using 2021 ammo.
Lions will get a haul this year an next If its not Miami it can be other teams.
It will also be a lot more than you think. If Miami wants Tua they will pay what ever it takes.
I any other team wants him bad they will pay whatever it takes. You know this an yet almost every post you make you down play what Lions may get .
Just look back at what teams have done to get player they want history says you are wrong.
Chicago dealt the No. 3 pick, their third round pick (No. 67), one of their fourth round picks (No. 111) and a 2018 third-round pick to move up and take Trubisky, considered one of the draft’s top quarterbacks.
Just a example that was to move one spot Miami is moving two spots if they want Tua
If Charges want to move its even more than Miami an it will involve 2021 picks
it will be interesting to see how if at all that impacts the Lions’ trade down options?
Given that Bob Quinn has demonstrated in the past that he has no sense of how draft boards fall – I particularly recall the over-acted relief in their war room that they drafted Teez Tabor like a round before anyone else would have thought to, as if someone was about to snag him imminently …
Quinn will blink. And turn down trade-downs. And draft Okudah. When he could have gotten draft capital and still got him. But that takes a nerve, an understanding, a boldness, a competence that Quinn has never exhibited since being here.
Brees went in the 2nd round to San Diego.
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