"There have been 38 quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2011, the year the NFL changed the collective bargaining agreement to set a wage scale for rookie deals, making it extremely affordable to draft a quarterback.
These 38 first round quarterbacks have made a total of 1,909 starts. Their record? 1034-1035-7.
Together, these 38 quarterbacks have played in a total of 214 seasons since being drafted. 41 of those 214 seasons (19.2%) saw the team that drafted the quarterback make the playoffs.
For most of that time, 37.5% of all teams made the playoffs. That has since increased to 43.8% with 14 of 32 teams qualifying annually. Yet these teams made it only 19% of the time."
There’s more to it but that part really caught my eye. It’s a bit of a myth that having a QB on a rookie deal gives a significant advantage.
These guys need to stop simply comparing Lamar’s talent and record with the first round picks as an argument. The situation becomes:
Question 1. Is Lamar better than the first round picks? If yes, proceed to question 2. If no, draft a QB.
Question 2. Is Lamar’s superior talent established under question 1 worth an additional first round pick over the QBs available in the draft. If yes, proceed to question 3. If no, draft a QB.
Question 3. Given Lamar’s superior talent under question 1, and the additional first round pick given up under question 2, is that talent worth at minimum an additional $100M to the franchise—keeping in mind his injury history. If the answer is yes, trade for Lamar. If the answer is no…draft a QB.
My point is that I love how all these journalists simply want to compare Lamar’s talent against those upcoming QBs (and Jared Goff) without considering draft picks and money.
To me you get a QB on a rookie deal develop him and try to keep him, while building a team around him. You don’t cycle through round 1 QB’s on rookie deals. Its not surprising that cycling through rookie QB’s on rookie deals is not a succesful strategy. The rookie QB contract DOES allow you to build a team around a rookie QB, who you hopefully keep.
Did you read the article, or are you deliberately being obtuse?
The first half of the article is about the success, or lack thereof, of 1st round QBs on their rookie deals. The second half makes the argument that given that lack of success, teams that will likely take a QB in the 1st should be more strongly considering making a move for Lamar.
Whether the conclusion is about Lamar or not, the facts from the article are relevant to anyone who has an opinion on whether we should take a QB at 6 or 18.
Your “conclusion” dealt with QBs being on rookie contracts not being an advantage. And you were using a data point to prove that point. Hurts was a QB on a rookie contract. Therefore he fits the larger data set that you need to take into account to reach the conclusion.
You are coming from a different angle than your “conclusion” when you said “It’s a bit of a myth that having a QB on a rookie deal gives a significant advantage.”
Damn near every Super Bowl in the last 10+ years has included a QB on a rookie contract or a relatively cheap cap hit for the year.
As soon as Stafford was traded I believed BH would daft a QB either this year or next for this exact reason. Goff had three 3/4 years left so continue building your foundation and then draft a QB in rd 1 this year and he sits for a year like Mahomes did and the next few seasons your qb cap hit is a fraction of what Goff would make.
The low cap number gives you 3-4 more years to build that roster.
Now, three drafts later and I’m not so sure this is the way BH goes. I was sure he would, today, not so much.
The Mahomes model sounds great but we always need to remember how perfectly things lined up for KC to make that move. For a team like the Lions its definitely a muddier situation. Alex Smith was given 4 seasons to prove that he wasn’t the guy to take them to the next level. By then he was 32 years old and his contract was expiring after the following season. In his final season as starter before taking Mahomes, Alex only threw 15 total TD passes and was bounced out of their 1st playoff game that year. It was a horrible performance where they barely moved the ball in a home playoff game. That was a KC team that had overcome QB play to secure the 2nd overall seed in the AFC.
There isn’t much precedent for drafting a replacement in the 1st round with a QB in his 20’s playing at the level that Goff is playing.
Why wouldn’t he be compared to Jared Goff? Look around, only a group of lions fans and Goff supporters actually believe that Goff is 1) elite and 2) better than Lamar. The consensus even amongst the biggest Lions supporters is that if they stick with Goff the premise is 1) You can win with Goff if you put enough superior talent around him 2) he will not be the reason you lose 3) but he also may not be the reason you win either. The lions are copying the niners in a very real sense. elite team…any qb can have success to an extent.
The issue with Lamar is very simple. The browns ■■■■■■ up. They gave a guy a fully guaranteed deal not named Mahomes. So the NFL doesn’t want to see the trend continue because if Lamar gets a fully guaranteed deal he wants then Daniel Jones is going to ask for one eventually, Tua will ask for one. Burrow will ask for one, Herbert will ask for one. Josh Allen will ask for one on his next deal. It will get out of hand and they don’t want that…
The thread title and the article are clearly referencing taking a QB in round 1. A lot of the debate on here is whether to use 6 or 18 on a QB. The stats show that doing that makes your team less likely to make the playoffs, less likely to make the conference championship, less likely to make the Super Bowl and less likely to win it.
The fact that several later round picks have made the Super Bowl on their rookie is a different point altogether and a very interesting one. The article overall talks about getting value from a QB, regardless of what their contract is. R1 QBs are clearly overvalued as the stats show. Spending a 2nd or a 3rd on a QB is not the same thing as spending a 1st, the opportunity cost and the expectation is much lower. By all means, if Holmes can find a Hurts or a Russel Wilson later in the draft then he should do it, but the point remains that taking a QB in round 1, just because we can, is not the smart play. That’s the whole thesis of the thread and the article. In my brief conclusion I missed the reference to round 1, but it’s there in the thread title and also repeatedly in the article.