Most Super Bowl contender teams have key pieces in place. What are those pieces and how does the Lions roster stack up.
I’m talking strictly player personnel. Not coaching and ownership so please don’t go there. I want to discuss what we have, what we need and how close are we really?
Obviously there are always exceptions but what’s the general rule.
Here’s what I notice.
Quality QB - I’d argue the Lions have that in Stafford.
Above average LT - Decker is close to average and I’d like to see him improve this year. For now I think we have that.
A shut down corner - We traded ours away but maybe Trufant and Okudah can get us there. I do believe we need a little more help in our secondary.
Most have at least one stud LBer. I’ve noticed many have two. So I’d say we’re lacking here too.
A top 10 run game. I’ve looked at this stat closely and it’s extremely hard to win consistently without one. The Lions may finally have the pieces in place. This season will tell us a lot.
Above average trench play. Being able to run and stop the run is key.
A pass rush - yeah we don’t have that.
I do think the Lions have enough weapons at the offensive skill positions to be able to overcome some of the issues elsewhere.
My biggest concern is the Lions tend to lack real difference makers. I’m hoping we can have a few youngster step up and change this but most likely we’re going to need more than we have.
We lack the top 10 rush game & top 10 Defense. A top rushing Defense is not key if we can can apply pressure by scoring early and often …I think if opponents are forced to become one dimensional our pass defense will be much improved …
The key to this season in particular will be can our Offense be an Elite scoring Offense and if we can, will the coaching staff recognize that it has to be kept up for 60 min and always play like we are behind .
The key to Patricia’s Defense is to force teams to nickel and dime down the field and chew time they cant afford to chew late and push the issue and make mistakes …
We need a pass rush , even desperate teams that are forced do be one dimensional are successful when Corners have to defend for extended periods.
I like this post Air. It is smart to try to see things in context.
It is easier to see the Lions being very good on offense. With Stafford they were a top 8 scoring offense already. Now we have more depth at RB, a really solid center, Hock in year two and Jones/Golladay. It is easy to like that side of the ball.
The question for all of us is defense. I have always believed the Patricia/Patriots scheme is all about stopping the run first and foremost. Stopping the run leads to predictable situations for an offense allowing the defense to be creative. When I think if the Lions I think of the Raiders game which we allowed 171 rushing yards in a critical game. From there (stopping the run) a team needs a solid secondary and the Lions didn’t have that in 2019. Between Slay skipping meetings, trading Diggs and grooming younger players that secondary was toast. The Lions gave up the 27th highest QR rating in 2019 for example.
To me the key players for a turnaround on defense are Danny Shelton ( a run stuffer), Jamie Collins (3 down LBer, a wild card) and then Damon Harmon (defensive QB). The wild cards are Okwara, Jarrad Davis (can he finally arrive please!) and Trufant.
If those defensive investments pay off I can easily see this defense as a top 15 unit which may be good enough if the offense is 2019 good with a healthy Stafford.
Stopping the run is nice…it helps, it’s a huge plus…Patricia’s Defense is highly dependent on doing that . You can also look at a KC team that allowed one of the highest YPR but also allowed the fewest attempts …A run game can be silenced when and if you can score points on offense and force a team to abandon it for the sake of time and having to play catch up .
The Chiefs were like 17th in rushes against them total at 417 (https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/defense/rushing/2019/reg/all) and they were 29thg in rushing yards allowed (which is bad). KC’s D has been pretty bad these past couple seasons. But they were 11th in sacks which helped. But they are different in KC than here. And they have a couple stud pass rushers too. The Chiefs allowed the 5th lowest QB rating which is really good. The Chiefs were tied for 5th in TDs scored and you bet that helps a defense!
The 2019 Lions were 11th in TDs scored. Really good.
It is very easy to see the Chiefs as a template for the Lions in that the Lions can score and if the D performs at roughly the mid point or slightly higher…there are a lot of piece in place to make a real run.
The Lions scored as many TDs as the 49ers did. And just two less than the Chiefs.
The Lions offense is playoff good. If the defense steps up at all this Lion’s team is going to be a very, very tough out in 2020 if there is a season.
NFC Championship game
San Fran - 2nd
Green Bay - 15th
AFC Championship game
KC - 23rd
Titans - 3rd
AFC Divisional round
KC - 23rd
Texans - 9th
AFC Divisional round
Titans - 3rd
Ravens - 1st
NFC Divisional round
GB - 15th
Seattle - 4th
NFC Divisional round
SF - 2nd
Vikings - 6th
AFC Wildcard
Texans - 9th
Bills - 8th
AFC Wildcard
Titans - 3rd
Patriots - 18th
NFC Wildcard
Vikings - 6th
Saints - 16th
NFC Wildcard
Seahawks - 4th
Eagles - 11th
12 teams, anywhere from 1st to 23rd in rushing. 7 teams have a top 10 rushing attack, not real strong evidence you need a top 10 run game imo.
I guess it just shows that unless you have one of the truly elite winner QB’s, it probably doesn’t hurt to have a strong run game. This is probably what we need.
I have to disagree here - KC with PM is an anomaly right now. I may be alone here but that off. is off the charts in what it can do - how it can do it and how quickly they can score…
Imho he was averaging 50 yards a game post season and that in its own right put an extra man on him.
They won the SB imho as the defense suddenly appeared and crushed SF…
When it comes to the playoffs, we see lots of anomaly’s. When Patricia was in New England, their defense wasn’t that good some years but when it came to the playoffs or the 2nd half of the season, somehow they got good.
A lot of the time, it’s all about “getting hot” at the end of the season. We beat the Patriots in 2018 and they went on to win the Superbowl. And down the stretch, the only won 2 of their last 4 regular season games…but somehow they dialed it up when it came to the playoffs.
How do you plan for your team to get hot during the playoffs?
I guess you just try to build the best team you can and hope for the best.
I hope we could get into the playoffs once and see Matt take charge and win us a game or two.
I did a 10 year look and charted them out. I’ve posted the results here multiple times. I recall once it was to debunked one of your posts.
It was something like 90% of teams who had a top 10 rushing attack made the playoffs either that year or the following year. Basically once opposing teams were forced to respect their run game.
The numbers are astronomical.
Do yourself a favor. Just chart the last two years top 10 rushing teams and then cross of which ones made the playoffs in the last two years.
So if you take the top 10 rushing teams in 2018 and 2019. Then cross out which of those teams made the playoffs in the last two years you’ll find only two teams out of 20 didn’t make it. Those two teams are Arz and Car - I’d say that means Arz has a great chance this year.
That’s 90% - Do this over 10 years and the trend continues.
Once teams are forced to respect a run game then your chances of making the playoffs go up drastically.
Give me 20min of your time someday and let’s have a beer and I’ll show you so much proof you’ll completely changed your view on this. The evidence is overwhelming.
I have read your work on the subject Air. Very well done.
Running well and stopping the run matters.
I am encouraged by the front office moves to bolster the run game. I hope this defense can step up to stop the run too. We need Danny Shelton to arrive.
Elite QBs, ability to convert on 3rd down, and a defense that can stop the other team from scoring TDs and can create turnovers.
The Lions have an above average QB, can’t extend drives (other than Golladay making some unreal catches), and have one of the worst defensive schemes I have ever seen.
It’s going to be tough to win with that. Maybe the next head coach won’t be so stubborn.
I don’t doubt you, I just want to know where the short passing game to the RB’s is accounted for?!?..cuz we’ve been told over the years that it was a substitute for the run game, so is it not?
Just means he was getting his ass kicked all the time.
I would rather have a guy that comes out and kicks ass in the first half and has his team up by 14 at halftime instead of down by 2 scores. I know it’s not all Stafford’s fault, but the facts are the facts.
When was the last time the Lions just came out and destroyed a team and simply played to salt the game away in the 2nd half?
Or does it mean coaching strategy was to much the clock with a team devoid of talent, then let your best player win the game at the end? Facts are facts? All people have an opinion, and your is not any more valid than anyone else (who has seen the same games as you).
When he’s had good OCs (almost never). See Linehan era and Bevell era. Caldwell handcuffed him. Schwartz went after defensive players…when Best and Young went down, that team was so offensively devoid of talent it’s ridiculous. Stafford has also played behind a couple of the worst offensive lines I’ve ever seen.
So thankful we have him. Hoping we have a 3-6 year window to win a title with him. Fingers crossed.
“he’s getting his ass kicked” - or the Defense is ranked 31? What’s he supposed to do, play Safety?
It can be to an extent yes. KC, NE and GB do this very well.
The idea is to slow the pass rush and to keep LBers from dropping into coverage. A short passing game accomplishes this and helps to get your TE’s and WR’s in man matchups where they can win.
What it doesn’t do is wear down the opposing teams front 7. A stout run game can wear a defensive front down over the course of a game. If it does this they will open things up near the end. Both in the run and pass dept.
There’s just no substitute for a quality run game that defenses are forced to respect.