1 Like
IMO depending on what the Lions are looking at for the QB position will determine where they will take one.
Day 1 = This is generally where teams believe that the player can become a NFL starter at some point.
Day 2 = This is where teams generally look at the players with a floor of QB2 and still might have a chance to become a QB1.
Day 3 = The players drafted here usually have a ceiling of QB2 but may never reach that level.
Now exceptions happen but from looking at the history of the draft that is generally how the draft goes when looking at QBs. So IMO just seeing where the Lions grab a QB will determine what they see his ceiling as.
Sure why not. He introduced me to people…I got a pair of golden tate’s gloves and other stuff out if it……
2 Likes
so new wrinkle that has appeared and actually may affect Jared Goff and QB position
Daniel Jones apparently is believed to be valued around 35 to 37 million per year in the QB market
in a vacuum, this is a shit ton of money to Danny Dimes, but with the value of Qb’s right now, and considering Burrow and Herberts likely contracts, its prolly gonna be an average amount in the market.
Goff, at 30 will be looking for a new contract, and iwth rising cap, that number rises significantly aswell
That’s always been my issue with revitalized Goff. Love him on this contract but not the next one.
1 Like
Yeah
like hes not signing a 40 mil per year contract if he continues to play like this
its looking like a 55 to 60 million per year contract with the rise in cap in the next two years
I actually do think this puts more weight on looking into a QB atleast (Taking one im still iffy about outside of late rounds)
I would hope we’ve had these conversations with him. If he’d re-up at 35m or whatever than that changes the calculus. Either way he still needs to prove to me that his improved play will be lasting.
I think all teams are having conversations… My gut tells me that a conversation between Dan and Brad alone… with cigars and whiskey in hand… SOUNDS FAR DIFFERENT THAN ANYTHING LOW LEVEL SCOUTS OR MEDIA INSIDERS WILL EVER HEAR!!!
-
Would every team in the entire league have Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow at their top 2 choices for QB? It’s possible the given the circumstances the Eagles and Bills may be the exceptions…
-
Interestingly enough… I bet many, hell most teams would like replace their starting QB for Jalen Hurts in 2023 if given the chance… HOWEVER- once factoring OL, long term scheme, and the decision of whether to pay Hurts 250MM with 200M guaranteed in a few months… I bet 75% of those teams would re-think, or back away all together…
-
I bet every executive who assesses NFL talent for a living is having conversations about Anthony Richardson, Levis, and Bryce Young quite frequently… They are all pretty polarizing… Bryce Young would be the smallest 1st round QB since Jim McMahon in 82’… SMALLEST- like 15 pounds of muscle smaller than Kyler small… Anthony Richardson will like run a 4.43 type 40 and show off his howitzer at the combine/pro day… Teams will have to assess his accuracy, decision making, and whether he can make the Josh Allen jump from athlete with an arm, to legit star QB… Levis is the guy every GM/Owner wants to be the face of their franchise… He looks and walks the part… BUT IS HE GOOD ENOUGH AT FOOTBALL- or will he Zach Wilson?
- If our GM refused to entertain or discuss the vary things we discuss on this board, how could he be taken seriously? Right now…
Is Bryce Young “mini Mahomes” or is he Doug Flutie? He’s not the start stop athlete that Murray is, so it’s really a mobile creator with off platform wizardry that has to be Young’s upside comp… Erin or Mahomes? Given he’s 30 plus pounds lighter- and 3-4’ shorter… That’s pretty tough to project, but it’s there to talk about…
Is Will Levis… Jay Cutler with a personality? Is he a little compact version or Josh Allen? Is he Matt Stafford with better mobility? Better question- if he wasn’t kind of fast, and didn’t have a cannon- would anyone be overly impressed soley by the results of him throwing the football on tape?
Anthony Richardson- we know he completes less than 60%… way less. We know he makes bonehead decision… lacks touch… doesn’t layer the ball all that well… But man he can make guys miss in the open field, turns on the jets when needed, and can throw a 30 yard out route… well sometimes
-
I am always confused by the “he can make all the throws” commentary? Are there 78 different possible throws? 102? 55? If a team has a QB who sells play action, hits the screens, and flares in stride with touch, leads WR away from contact… hits back shoulders when applicable… and when his guy is running wide open down the field, can get it there… .What else is there?
-
I know there are throws Stafford can squeeze into windows that Goff can’t, but sometimes those are dropped, or the safety jars it loose, or the throw has the needed velocity, but is slightly off target and gets picked off…
Tom Brady for example cannot make all the throws, and neither could Brees… Somehow they managed to succeed- A LOT without need the particular throws they couldn’t make…
… So yes I believe all convos are being had-
- Is Big V or Levi O done?
- Would Sewell transition to a Pro Bowl level LT… or is he anchored at RT the next 10 years here?
- Is Rags foot gonna be a thing next year too… longer?
- Is Goff willing to take a 35-40MM 3 year extension to see this through here?
- Should we see if Goff is open to that? If not, then maybe we do take a QB at #6… which one?
- Brad- you found guys like C Harris, Commish, Swaggy, Hughes, Elliott, AA, super cheap… should we sign STUDS and you keep finding these 1-2MM guys on prove it deals… or do we pay the guys you found 7-8MM???
- If AG gets poached this year or next… who is our guy? Are we looking to stay in a 4-2-5 or back to 3-4
- Is Chark worth paying? I wouldn’t pay anyone else 10-12M per… Do we roll the dice with Jamo and ASB- plus 1 year deal for Reynolds and Raymod?
- Does the defense require a Suh type guy, and is there even one?
- Which position groups can we cure 100% in free agency?
Sign Cominsky for 7M APY and draft Bijan?
Draft Myles Murphy and sign Swaggy for 4M APY?
2 Likes
I don’t watch college football, but I hope we sign a competent backup QB and use the draft to get better on defense. Goff is going to play even better next year…my 30 td bet is going to cash next season.
1 Like
Pepto Bismol works well for gut issues.
Well played. Lol
I could end up being very wrong in my opinion of how Brad will navigate this year…
It’s hard to argue that Brad was a large part of scouting and trading up for Goff, and clearly targeted the trade offer that brought Goff here. As a new GM he could have gotten started with 2 top 10 picks in what was considered a historic talent pool draft, and at least then- a deep QB draft class….
To find out after the fact that we considered trying to trade up for Sewell (who we got anyway) and passed on a trade to Carolina or Denver that would have netted us a pick draft “Brads QB” it’s hard to ignore his faith in Goff…
I don’t doubt that conversations are happening, I expect them too… with all teams, every year…. I can’t help but feel like Brad has been in on Goff since 2016-
When the 2023 season starts… Goff will be 28, and Josh Allen 27…. I would bet if somehow Goff has the #2 defense next year… and Allen has the #30 overall D- we easily win the Divison and Allen and Bills miss the playoffs-
- my point all along is that QBs with #30 ranked defenses rarely make the playoffs… and QBs with top 5 ranked defenses rarely miss them
2 Likes
Interesting thread. My own view …
- Holmes has been prepared to trust his coaching to make the team better whilst playing the long game. This has been risky and has come close to derailing the rebuild twice mid-season. But they have seemingly ridden it out. The way things stand -injuries permitting- it’s difficult to see how the Lions aren’t on an upward trajectory at least for the next 2-3 years as the current team matures.
- Things are going to get more difficult in terms of roster building. The windfall of the Stafford trade means that Holmes will have fewer picks to play with and the team’s likely improvement will mean that they’re unlikely to be picking in the top 15 for a couple of years unless they’re prepared to package picks.
- Goff has done enough to suggest he can perform to a high enough standard to QB the team to a Divisional title and a playoff win. It’s more in question whether he can take the team further (although he’s not alone in that by any stretch).
Given the above, I can certainly see a scenario where the Lions at least consider Richardson (or indeed Levis, Stroud or Young) at #6. I don’t think I’d do it if the Lions only had the #6 pick but they also have #18 plus 3 picks on day 2. They currently have options and flexibility that they won’t have next year so much.
I firmly believe that the team can win a Divisional title next year without the #6 pick. But most teams think they can get to the playoffs next year and the real difficulty comes with getting yourself into perennial contender shape and opening the window wide enough that they maximise their opportunities. This has been the mantra of the FO all along – their priority is the long term.
So I can see Holmes liking the flexibility and security that comes from having Goff and Richardson under contract. It gives him another card to play moving forwards as resources become tighter and the Lions might need that card to push them over the hump. GMs tend to like flexibility and being able to pivot. It potentially also makes the cap situation easier to handle – or at least it gives them more options. And I tend to think that’s the key - options and flexibility. The problems really come when your decisions box you into a corner.
I obviously wouldn’t pick any QB in round 1 if their evaluation is a bit meh – they do need to believe in the guy. I can however see the appeal in structural terms. Ultimately, I’m not saying I’d do it myself - it would be a massive call. But I don’t think the sky would fall either - I’d still make the Lions the favourites for the NFC North even with a guy at #6 who sat out the season.
5 Likes
This is what I don’t like. People get dazzled by what dazzled people about many a toolsy QB with POOR accuracy numbers. Though I do agree these things CAN be coached up. ASSUMING they will be with prospect X is not a small gamble. It’s a critical one because QB’s as inaccurate as Richards do not last as starting QB’s in the NFL.
3 Likes
Five years ago I would have agreed with you, but now we have not just Josh Allen but Jalen Hurts as examples of guys who drastically improved their accuracy by fixing their footwork. It’s gonna start happening more and more now that coaches know it can be done. The old adage that accuracy can’t be improved is out the door.
Actually it’s not, if a QB has good footwork and he’s still inaccurate, that’s not getting fixed. But if their footwork is all over the place like Allen, Hurts and Richardson, then I think it can be fixed. Will it? Well that’s on the work ethic of the player, and on our FO to figure it out.
4 Likes
Same thing happened in baseball with Driveline, etc.
Used to be scouts always leaned on the side of take the velocity and figure out control and spin later. Now that’s flipped (to an extent of course) for some organizations as they can grab a guy that’s 92mph but have everything else and can find an extra 2-3mphs on the fastball.
1 Like
One guy whose footwork is all over the place…
1 Like
I remember Jim Miller talking about QB accuracy in college vs the NFL. He said in college being accurate is just hitting the general shape of a human on the other end, somewhere that he can get his hands on it. But NFL accuracy is very different. He talked about NFL accuracy being able to pinpoint where it hits a very specific point. Because in the NFL “hitting them in the numbers” isn’t good enough. In the NFL throwing it to the upper left number can be complete while center of the left number can be knocked away while the back of the left number can be an interception. That’s how good NFL DBs are and how narrow the margin is from completion to incompletion to interception. So if a kid is struggling to hit blobs, it will be even tougher for him to gain that skill PLUS learn how to hit specks on jersey’s.
Not the best example but it gets the concept across.
Agreed that’s why I find it funny when fans complain about a ball they think is poorly placed but the truth is the QB intended it to go there to save an INT but the WR didn’t adjust.
That’s why I like to see games live. You can see that live but not on a TV.
2 Likes
Or in the all-22. That’s one of my favorite things about watching it that way.
1 Like
I will never forget this display of accuracy
6 Likes