Will we finally have a “plan?”

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
1

This team has made notoriously illogical moves for nearly 2 solid decades. Other than the safe hire of Caldwell, it’s been perpetual circus of bad decision making.

We’ve hired GMs with zero experience. We’ve hired QB coaches and DL coaches to be HCs, and acted shocked when it didn’t work.

A lazy day watching red zone today has really brought to my attention just how bad we’ve been with personnel, especially the last 7-8 years.

Watching J Bostic, Whitehead, Van Noy, and Kennard got me really thinking back…

Irony? Bostic, Van Noy, Whitehead, and Kennard collectively score better per PFF than J Collins, Tavaii, J Davis, and C Jones-

We spend a 10M plus free agent contract, a first, a second, and a 3M per year deal, and we are no better off than we were were with young guys we already had 3-4 years ago.

Same with OL… see 2016

Decker
Tomlinson
Glasgow
Warford
Reiff- please note there are 3 recent first rounders, and 2 successful 3rd rounders right here atop the 2016 preseason depth chart…

We then gutted it before it had a chance to gel… warford was allowed to walk, and we spent identical money on an older and broken TJ Lang. We let Reiff walk in exchange for signing Rick Wagner for almost identical money. Only one was “our” first rounder, and the other a late 5th rounder coming off 1 solid season as a starter.

Laken Tomlinson has 72 straight starts and a pff rating of over 80 this year. Needless to say, he’s much much better than Dahl or Big V!!!

Decker
Dahl
Ragnow
Big V
Crosby.

That is our optimal o line? That is 3 huge FA contracts- Lang, Big V, and Wager, along with “4” first round picks and 3 thirds in the last 8 years so so… it’s amazing how many resources were spent to have a bad oline with less talent than we started with?

Reiff
Tomlinson
Glasgow- all between 72-81 pff. Add these 3 to Ragnow and Decker and we’d be a top 3-4 OL- consider Glasgow and Big V are almost identical contracts.

Fulgham- he’s got 520 yards and 5 tds in 12 games with 8 starts. Anyone who has seen the kids play would likely agree he’d have been our #2 most of this year. Another guy we drafted, had on our team, a super cheap contract, and let him walk for nothing at age 24???

Ebron/L Thomas- they combine for over 1100 yards and 10 tds- and Hock and James combine for 820 yards and 8tds… WE PAY THE LATTER 2 a combined 2M MORE THAN EBRON AND THOMAS!!!

Darius Slay and Nevin Lawson respectively have 72 and 58 pff ratings… Justin Coleman 51, Trufant 38, and Okudah 30??? Seriously- it cost us 20M this year for Coleman and Trufant, and THE 3 OVERALL FOR OKUDAH- it’s almost comical.

Quandre Diggs has more ints than any Lion since we sent him packing. He’s also higher rated by pff than 3 of our 4 safeties!!!

Kerry Hyder has 8.5 sacks at 1.5M salary!!

I’m aware this post is long, and it’s point is still vague… I’m truly trying to figure out what on earth these “pros” are doing. We are paying millions for this decision making.

Drafting guys like Broyles, Best, and Kerryon with awful injury histories.

Drafting 3 tight ends top 20, and cutting the first two loose after 3-4 years??? Drafting 2 lbers (top 10 overall and mid 2nd) under 5’11” and 225 pounds in Sims and Dizon…

Drafting WRs in 3 straight first rounds despite 2 having massive character concerns and maturity issues. CRog and BMW

Bottom line this team is in pathetic company when it comes to running football team. Only the Jags and Jets are equally miserable. For some reason none of these teams has shown any interest or effectiveness at keeping and developing their talent.

Just like Lions fans the jags and Jets fans were watching Leonard Williams, J Adam’s, Yannick, Fowler, J Ramsey, Fournette, starring on other teams.

Imagine the Lions knew what they were doing? We all knew Suh was leaving, and since our GM chose not to offer the 5th year to Fairley, it seems like we should have known DT was a position of massive need, and Aaron Donald was the most disruptive DT prospect since W Sapp. With his speed he could have even lined up at DE next to Suh and Fairley. He had 29 tfl his last year in college and 11.5 sacks!

Fast forward to 2019. We let a pro bowl cb who wants to be here go because we don’t extend him? Then give almost the same annual pay to a much lesser player in Trufant? We let Glasgow walk, and pay almost the same for a far lesser player in Big V. It’s been clear all year Kenny G has wanted to get extended. He has a freaking Lion tatoo on him.

I bet he would have signed a 5 year 75M contract in August. That would really be a 6 year and 76M deal. We’d have him right through his whole prime.

Marvin Jones could have been given a 2 year 18M extension before this year.

Stafford should either be traded or extended right now. Football is a chemistry sport. An emotional sport. A team effort sport.

3 Likes
2

Truly think about how inept it’s been.

Was Pettigrew an athlete? Bad hands, speed and production coming out of college??

Did Hock show anywhere near the tenacity of Kittle or natural movement of Kelce, or size of Gronk?

Okudah was a 1 year starter with modest production numbers and a decent combine.

Guys like Aaron Donald, Montez Sweat, Brian Burns, Derrick Brown, Devin Bush, Devin White, TJ Watt- these are all guys we begged for.

All guys who would be vital pieces to our D had we had any common sense. Guys with ideal size, speed, and most importantly “production”.

Even Ziggy had just 4 sacks before we made him a top pick.

Stafford, Calvin and Suh are the last picks we made where the college tape and combine numbers made you excited to see them in a lions uniform.

I guess I’d put Swift in that category too

I think J Chase and M Parsons are the dog fence makers in this class

1 Like
3

I remember at one point years ago the plan was to do a fastest-show-on-turf kinda thing.

I think that’s dumb. You play in the NFC North, you have to be able to win winter weather games. And you’ll likely get those kinds of games in the playoffs, too.

Not many dome teams have gone all the way – the Rams, the Saints, and the Falcons blew their shot.

I think you want to do kind of a Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Tennessee thing. Capable of doing power running, but balanced, with a good QB and good receivers.

On defense, able to stop the run and keep the passing game in front of you.

Spielman has said one of his priorities in the interviews will be candidates who espouse the kinds of things he’s heard winners tell him over decades in the game. I take that to mean, they have a plan.

4

I couldn’t agree more.

We have been the opposite of money ball.

WE ARE THE ONLY TEAM IN THE LEAGUE TO DRAFT A TE IN THE TOP 20 PICKS SINCE 2007!!!
WE HAVE DONE IT 3 TIMES!!!

We have paid Lang, Wagner, and Big V contracts averaging over 9.5M per year along the OL since 2017… 3 different guys who were mid to late round picks, and 3 guys whose original teams chose not to sign.

We let our own high to mid draftees become disgruntled as we refuse to discuss or extend their contracts, and then we replace them with less athletic and equally expensive guys from other teams?

Ebron vs Jesse James- we pay James roughly what Ebron makes…

Slay vs Trufant- the extension Philly gave Slay (we could have) totaled 4 years and 60M with one remaining year. Trufant gets 11M per so we saved 4M going from a Pro Bowler to trash?

Glasgow vs Big V- we paid him 10M per year and he’s allowed 2nd most sacks (6). Glasgow was a great guy, stable force and he got 11M and has allowed 1 sack and is 10 plus points higher rates per pff…

AP vs Kerryon- by signing AP despite only paying 1.1M, we immediately took away Kerryons role and stunted growth of Swift? I get that Johnson was injury prone, but the combo of he, T Johnson and Swift would have been our best backfield in memory.

D Harmon vs Q Diggs- we got older, lost a year of contract, got less production, and exact same cap hit? Again lost a year of control so in my opinion a major net loss.

D Ammendola vs T Fulgham- we lost 1 year of team control and paid 4 times more for similar yards and 5 less tds…

Chase Daniel vs D Blough- we paid 5.3M per year for an old career backup with a losing record as many ints as tds in limited action. Did anyone think of Stafford missed 10 games that Daniel would win 6? So basically if our season was already lost, Daniel might win 1-2 games possibly and worsen our draft position for an extra 5m per year?

J Collins vs D Kennard- I’m not a big Collins guy. 1 pick and 1 sack and 100 tackles on a bad team isn’t 11M production. Both guys have 64.5 pff rating. Collins costs 4.5M more though and is older.

T Whitehead vs J Tavaii - Whitehead is a far more talented and effective player. Only makes 800k more per year

By simply…

Extending Ebron, extending Slay, extending Whitehead and Kennard, and Glasgow, and just keeping Fulgham, T Johnson, Q Diggs, Blough -

There is less than 44M total there. The last 4 were already cheap and signed, and under 28!!! The first 5 we’re willing to stay, wanted to be paid. We pissed off Ebron. None were over 29!!!

Instead- Big V, Trufant, Harmon, James, AP, C Daniel, Ammendola, Collins, and Tavaii- of this group 6 are over 29!!! They make 51M collectively.

Keeping in mind there would have been an extra 2nd rounder not wasted wasted on Tavaii- or a first on Hock or a first needed for Okudah.

Last year with Ebron extended- we would have take. Devin Bush? B Burns? Ed Oliver? Then in round 2, we’d have needed an offensive weapon- Aj Brown or DK Metcalf? With Slay in tow, instead of Okudah, maybe Derrick Brown or Herbert

Golladay
Aj Brown
M Jones
Fulgham

Ebron
Logan Thomas

Swift
Kerryon
T Johnson or Bo Scar

Decker
Dahl
Ragnow
Glasgow
Crosby

Flowers
Shelton
Willams/D Brown
Okwara/Hand

Kennard
D Bush
T Whitehead/J Davis

Slay
Q Diggs
Walker/Harris
Roberts/Coleman

This is Monday morning QB. This is common sense.

When we let Glasgow walk we knew we were going to sign a replacement. There was zero data indicating another interior OL player in UFA would be an upgrade.

When we let Slay go, we knew we had to overpay a UFA like Trufant and then we’d still be uneasy at CB, and then we had to reach for Okudah.

Now that Hock made a cheap pro bowl, he’s gonna be expensive the last 2 years. If his blocking stays average, we won’t be able to justify 11M per year for 800 yards and 7tds a year. Our 3rd top 20 TE gone in 5 years??

Bottom line it’s cheaper and more reliable to resign your own guys. Add in free agency if it’s a net gain. If your draft slot isn’t a sure thing trade back, even if it’s shitty value.

4 Likes
5

Good gawd. What could our OL be like, if smarter ppl were in charge?

1 Like
6

Resign Enron? Really?I quit reading at that point… dude, this is not MLive…

7

Not sure what mlive means, but I respect your opinion regardless of the intent of your reply.

Yes Ebron. Not specifically him, but he’s just another symbol of what we perpetually do wrong.

For what it’s worth Ebron needs 550-600 yards per year for about 4-5 more years (age 31) and he will be in the top 15 all time in tight end production. There are plenty of other guys on that list like Zach Ertz, Owen Daniels, etc that never blocked anyone.

He’s already at 32 tds which is top 20 all time already. He’s on the heals of Shockley, Owen Daniels, and closing in on Todd heap. He’s only 3 tds behind D Walker and Ertz despite being 3-6 years younger than each.

So yes Ebron. By the way, his numbers from catches per target and tds per target and even drop rate are almost identical to hock.

My point is we “wasted a top 10 pick on Ebron” when Obj, K Fuller, Cj Mosley, T Lewan and of course- Aaron Donald were all there.

Then when Ebron did what receiving tight ends, suck at blocking and get 500-700 yards a year, we cut bait and wasted another top 10 pick trying again

Gonzalez, Gronk, Sharpe, Gates, Kelce, and maybe one day we will add Kittles… that is it for 900 yard and 7-8 td every year TEs in history!

It’s like drafting a DT top 8-10 and cutting bait when he doesn’t get 7 plus sacks a year.

8

Yep, he lost me there.

9

I’m 100% serious that I could put the majority of this board’s posters name’s in hat, draw one, and let that person be GM and run the draft, and it would be tons better than the Lions have done.

10

I don’t doubt that. The NFL is built for parity, and yet the same 5-7 teams tend to stay in the hunt. Steelers, Pats, Chiefs, Seahawks, Packers, Saints, and Ravens seem to be in or around the playoffs, and when they rebuild, they do it quickly and are right back.

Carrol, Reid, Belicheck, Payton are winners, and the Ravens, Steelers, and Packers have been SB contenders with multiple coaches. The ownership knows football.

The Jets, Lions, Browns, Jags, Bengals, Redskins, Texans, Vikings and Raiders suck over and over again

They can’t find a GM… they don’t consistently win for more than a year at a time. They start over with new coaches at least every 4-5 years.

We understand Stafford health, Golladays contract frustration, what damage Patricia may have done to Our locker room. Snacks, Slay, Diggs, Glasgow, Tate, and others left angry!!

Somebody might be a great draft guy, or a great salary cap guy… does Riddick or Dimitrov know which guys really want to be here still? Who will they extend? Trade? Cut?

As fans we imagine a guy getting drafted and flying into Detroit and a whole lockeroom welcoming that guy. Excited about the new talent.

In the real world that rookie is taking a guys job. Taking a guys friends job.

So nothing is worse for culture than constant change over. Get it right the first time!!

Figure out who wants to stay. Who is worth keeping. Don’t hire a coach who needs all new “personnel” for his system.