To note JJ Watt has 7 sacks his last year at Wisconsin
2 Likes
Is that supposed to be your "gotchaâ moment? There are always exceptions to the rule.
JJ Watt was drafted 11th. There is a reason why the previous 10 teams passed on him. You can always find players who exceed their college years and expectations. Tom Brady for instance was passed over by 32 teams for 5 rounds and drafted in the 6th.
i think youâd need more substantive play and production if you are drafting 5th overall.
Mr. DaleâŚthis is why I donât even bother with the speculation of who to draft. It used to be fun but too many picks outta nowhere for me to even get into it
The point is that if JJ Watt had been taken 5th a lot of ppl would have called that a reach because of his low sack numbers. Those ppl would have been wrong. Epenesaâs game is a lot like Wattâs. Tape speaks louder than stats.
3 Likes
Not a âgotchaâ, but the reason I wrote âto noteâ is to add a perspective to the discussion and point out that a prospect shouldnât be solely judged by a single metric
I donât think anyone would have blinked had Watt gone in the top ten. Looking back too, that was a stacked draft. 12 of the first 16 picks are multi-pro bowlers who are still playing. Of course the Lions were one of the four misses, taking Fairley - the only non QB among those four misses
This team can never get out of its own way. We were âso shockedâ when Fairley fell to us that we just had to take him over sayâŚKerrigan. Almost as bad as taking BMW over Ware. Or being surprised Ebron was still there and drafting him over Donald
4 Likes
And coming soon, taking TJH overâŚâŚâŚ
1 Like
Personally I care more about traits and the kids game tape than sack production numbers. For instance getting 12 sacks out of a kid that is actually trying to play the run as well is different than a kid they just turn loose on the pass all the time and gets 12 sacks. Also, alot of the best pass rushers are going to be gameplanned against, so I take that into account with the film.
1 Like
Sorry Lions fans but Mr. Tnutz nailed it
1 Like
If you draft Epenesa you will find out in a hurry that it was a mistake. He played 48% of the snaps last season, not sure what it is this season. Heâs not an every down player and heâs young, really young. Heâs 21, wonât be 22 until the season starts. Now, those two things arenât a deal breaker to get drafted, but they should be a deal breaker to get drafted top 10. I think by the END of his rookie contract he will be all that, but in the meantime you will watch him get beat out and play every 2nd or 3rd down. So by the time your investment pays off heâs at the end of his contract and you just coached him up to play somewhere else.
Well seeing as half the posters here donât believe our coaching staff is capable of coaching up players that second contract should come pretty cheap.
It will probably be a 6th round pick, a la Van Noy, or a 5th round a la Diggs, or a 5th for Tomlinson,âŚ
So much truth to this. It makes it that much more of an anomaly in how we maneuvered the 2013 draft. There were so many misses and so little talent across the board, how the hell did the Detroit LionsâŚwho buy their pants from the toilet storeâŚsomehow manage to have the draft that they did? #strange
1 Like
It is very easy to narrow down the prospects for the Lions.
-
An obvious need. It has to be an obvious position of need. It doesnât matter if the player isnât worth the draft position. It will not be BPA it will be a position of need.
-
It will also be a position with little value, that can be found in FA for a fraction of the cost. Look for a guard, RB or safety.
-
It will be a player with a limited physical ceiling and has no chance of being a star.
-
It will be a choir boy.
1 Like
- He will fail, like every other selection made by Quinn. I mean, amirite?
1 Like
Look, this was just my first impression Epenesa. I may not stick with this opinion for the next 1/2 a year. If I was to make a silly bet this time of the year Iâd say he wonât even be a top 10 pick. Howâs that for a hot take?..lol
My point is you make draft decisions based on production and this dude is only average. One can cherry pick the JJ Watt selection and say this guy will be the same type of player, which is silly. JJ Watt is a Hall of Famer and one of the best players of his generation.
I cherry-picked Tom Brady to make my point. In hindsight he should have been the first pick in the draft. He was picked in the 6th round because he shared the QB duties at Michigan and didnât have enough statistical evidence for any team to select him early in the draft.
1 Like
We can cherry-pick as many examples as you like. TB12 is another great exampleâif you draft players based on stats, youâll be wrong a lot.
Actually college production is one of the lesser factors when drafting. NFL production is what you want so they draft based on potential as much as anything. Thatâs why the combine is such a big deal. Brady got drafted so low because he was a slow QB with an average arm
Iâve never said you draft on production alone. There are multiple factors: Scheme, competition, experience, production, and others. Generally speaking, the better players will have the better stats. Brady just didnât have the reps and Michiganâs scheme didnât allow him to flourish. I used that example to show WHY teams passed on him. Most teams value production as a key indicator. Just because some players fall through the cracks doesnât mean that teams should abandon PRODUCTION as a key indicator. What you do on the field is what matters most.
This is a complicated subject and not all stats are created equal. A CB could lead the league in INTâs but could be the result of gambling too much. Maybe he is beat a lot too because of the gambling. A LB may lead the team in tackles because other players are not doing their jobâŚIâll stop here. I didnât expect to go down this rabbit hole todayâŚlol
Yes, you will find diamonds in the rough with average or below-average stats, who were either injured, not used enough, or were not good fits in a scheme.
Many people preferred Michiganâs Gary last draft to Chase Winovich but not me. Winovich had much better production and flashed every game. Gary was the combine star with off the charts measurables.
When watching the game tape it seemed pretty obvious that Chase was the better football player
1 Like
Chase n Bush is what that D was all about.
4 Likes