Now that we’ve picked up the 5th year options of Jamo and Hutch, the picture for 2026 is a little clearer.
OTC 2026 Lions Cap Liabilities: $326.7 million
Number of players contacted for 2026: 31
Projected 2026 Cap Per OTC: $295.5 million
Adjustments:
1 - Add $10.3 million to reflect the seven players that were just drafted. Their combined cap charge for 2025 will be $9.2 million and most rookie contracts inflate with the cap so I feel like $10.3 million is a reasonable estimate for next season, and it leaves us with a round $337 million.
2 - Rollover from 2025. Currently there is $42.4 million in cap space, but that will be reduced by about $3.3 million by this rookie class (as already mentioned it’s $9.2 million for the class but each player will knock a vet min player off the roster so the net cap reduction is $3.3 million), and according to PFT’s details of Kerby’s new deal, which OTC haven’t updated yet, his contract will come in with a roughly $300k cap saving in 2025. So that leaves $39.4 million as potential rollover money, but that will be reduced by accounting for the practice squad, and further veteran signings (Za’darius?). There’s no way to know what this number will be, but let’s call it $20 million in rollover to 2026.
3 - Kerby’s 2026 cap number needs to be counted too. That’s about $6.4 million.
4 - The 2026 draft class. This obviously depends on what picks are actually made, but I’m going to put $8 million in as the number for now.
Post Adjustment:
2026 Lions Cap Liabilities: $331.4 million
Number of players contacted for 2026: 39
Projected 2026 Cap Per OTC: $295.5 million
The Lions are currently roughly $36 million over the projected 2026 cap, with only 39 players under contract plus however many players are drafted in 2026.
Restructures:
- Goff, roughly $40 million space created
- St Brown, roughly $20 million space created
- Sewell, roughly $15 million space created
- McNeill, roughly $16 million space created
All these restructures would create around $90 million in cap space. It won’t be enough to just do Goff, but the more of these restructures that are done the more difficult things get further down the road.
Potential Cap Cuts:
- Decker, $12 million
- Ragnow, $13 million
- Montgomery, $3.5 million
- Glasgow, $5.5 million
- Wright, $2.7 million
- Fox, $3 million
I think we can all agree that Ragnow, Montgomery and probably Fox won’t be going anywhere for cap savings, but Glasgow looks certain to be gone now after this draft, and Decker and Wright might be expendable too.
New deals on the horizon:
- Hutch (current 2026 hit is $19.9 million, that would probably come down with a new contract, but not by much)
- Jamo (current 2026 hit is $15.5 million, that would probably come down with a new contract, but not by much)
- Branch (current 2026 hit is $2.6 million, that’s likely to go up with a new deal)
- LaPorta (current 2026 hit is $3 million, that’s likely to go up with a new deal)
- Campbell (current 2026 hit is $4.7 million, which will probably stay broadly the same with a new deal)
- Gibbs (current 2026 hit is $5.7 million, which will probably stay broadly the same with a new deal)
Conclusion
As you can see, there are lots of moving parts, but fundamentally the Lions are likely to be pretty tight to the cap limit in 2026. Pending free agents like Reader, Anzalone, Patrick, Robertson, Lopez, Levi, Davenport, Paschal, Raymond and other depth pieces are all likely to be gone (good news for comp pick enthusiasts!). The restructures are tempting, but they just push the problem into 2027 and beyond. Since we’ve not been here before under Brad, there’s no telling how he addresses it, maybe he restructures everyone and brings back a lot of the pending free agents to have a super roster in 2026, maybe he goes the other way and eats some big cap hits to give more future flexibility but the roster gets a lot weaker as the depth walks out the door. With the first four picks in 2023 all due new contracts the salary cap issue isn’t going to improve at all moving into 2027 and beyond.
My Prediction
Brian Branch is traded before or during the 2026 draft. Unless Sheila is willing to provide a ton of cash up front that will allow Brad to re-sign the entire 2023 draft class and keep pushing cap hits into the future, something has to give, and I think it will be Branch. Kerby just got paid and I personally don’t think paying two safetys is an optimal play when cap space is limited. Branch would have great trade value with a year still left on his rookie contract and with his reputation around the league. The Dolphins got a 1st for Fitzpatrick a few years ago and I think that’s a fair return for a player like Branch. Trading Branch wouldn’t solve the issue by any means, but it would grant a little more future cap flexibility and crucially provide draft capital to replenish some of the losses in free agency. Beyond that I think restructuring Goff plus one other, letting most of the free agents walk, cutting Glasgow and Decker, and hoping for or expecting the 2025 and 2026 draft classes to fill the holes of free agents lost is the best balance between shoving cap hits into the future and retaining a high level roster. But who knows, we’ve never been here before.
Interested to hear other thoughts on this.