A Lot Will Play Out In A Year: Alim McNeill

The Den
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It’s never been so fun to be wrong.

I think his comment about loving lone wolves was significant. Group think can reinforce echoed opinions and lead to group blindness. Allowing people to voice fringe and sometimes wrong perceptions is healthy for the group. It gets you to re-examine your own evaluation.

In 2023, he WAS the smartest man in the room after accusations that he fell prey to that syndrome. Was he just showing off again when someone held his beer as he drafted GioMan and Vaki, followed by Wingo and Dirtbag?

I can’t wait until he moonwalks in-your-face again at his next end-of-year presser.

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I agree.

As you’ve stated you can’t evaluate off just stats. For example the stats don’t show his inconsistent play but they do show where he ranks vs other IDL. Let’s look at those numbers.

Solo Tackles - Ranked 80th (tied)
Assisted Tackles - tied 23rd
Sacks - tied 29th.

Let’s look at some other numbers.

QB Pressure - 39th
Tackles for a loss - 35th
Run stuffs - 83rd

Which stats?…. This is why I speak up when fans think Alim is playing like a top 5 DT.

This belief comes off of his PFF 88.6 overall grade. Their overall grades put him near the top but…. we all know how subjective that grade is. However even PFF ranks him at 15th yet the actual rank and stats don’t support their 88.6 overall grade they place on him.

So they have him at 15th to start the season. Behind Reader who is 13th… So does that mean he should be paid less than Reader is? … I’d be good with that.

Can anyone convince me with some actual facts that show he’s the elite DT that Lions fans claim him to be?

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There’s no way I could convince you. But maybe former NFL NT Beau Allen’s analysis will. One NFC Championship game doesn’t speak to the consistency issue you mentioned though.

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I’m a huge fan of Alim and I definitely don’t think he is a top 5 DT. I think he is top 15 though, albeit on the cusp. With that said, I believe he will take sizable step forward again this year, and catapult him in the top 5 conversation.

Reader got the money he got because of age and his recent injury history. Coming off a healthy season he likely commands close to 20 AAV.

I personally think McNeil is a better player than Ed Oliver, who got 17mil last season. I think he is at least on par with Christian Barmore, who just cleared 20mil AAV this offseason. I think his upside is a good bit higher than Barmore’s as well.

If Alim pushes double digit sacks and maintains his level of play as a run defender he is likely looking at 25mil AAV next offseason.

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I think he’s a good player. I think he improved his play a lot in 2023. I still see inconsistency, times where he has really good games and times where he disappears too.

Beau called him a really good player.
Beau also called Cominsky a really good player.

That’s a far cry from elite, top 5 or, even a top 10 player. Which we tend to hear a lot on the den when people talk about McNeil. I don’t think he’s a consistently dominant player like top 10 DT’s are and the stats support that observation.

With that said if you told me he was top 20 I don’t think I’d argue. If you told me he had top 10 potential I wouldn’t argue either.

With Reader on the roster I think McNeil could have his best season yet and top 10 is very possible. Especially with Reader eating up double teams.

But…… I’m not convinced we would pay top 10 money (let alone top 5) to keep him…. At least based on what he’s put on tape so far.

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Great breakdown of the NFCC game. Alim the dream had a great game. Wait until he’s 25-26 years old with real man strength. He will be all pro for a few years barring injury.
Question, do you pay for this upside now, or wait until it costs mega $$?

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Alim wasn’t a full time player in his rookie year….

so consider the snap counts….

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One fascinating aspect of that video was the number of plays showing Alim at NT, 2i at the furthest. I was pretty sure most of his snap were at 3Tech and PFF showed over the whole season Alim played 49 at NT, 558 at 3Tech and 74 over an OT. In the playoffs against the Rams and the Bucs he played 9 snaps at NT in each game and then 23 against the Niners (plus 23 at 3Tech).

Why did 41 of the 49 plays at NT over the course of the season occur during the playoffs? Crappy NTs? Buggs gone, Benito Jones rocking those shorty overalls looking good off the field, but not so much on, and BroMart not ready? Was it simply an adjustment to our defensive scheme?

This is over my pay grade. Help me.

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The Lions cut Buggs and signed Tyson Alualu who is best suited at 3T.

Benito Jones only took 20% of the snaps vs SF while Alualu took on 65%. McNeil took 70% of the snaps.

Interestingly Cominsky had the worst PFF grade out of anyone on the DL that game and in the above video Beau Allen said he played really good.

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Perfect post… better than my similar one 6-7 days ago lol.

We want to ignore Kerby, Barnes, Jamo PFF grades and pretend they are “must sign,” but they ignore stats and the eyeball test and jock Alim because of his PFF grade?

Two years ago he was dominant against the Giants. He was great against both Vegas and Green Bay last year.

If he improves again and notches 7-8 sacks- the top 8-10 DT talk can start. Right now I see guys like C Jones, Donald, and Q Williams as simply different animals. Guys like Madabuike exploded on the scene last year, and the year before it was D Payne…. I doubt either of them will live up to their contracts…. I doubt C Wilkins lives up to his….

At 13-17M I see fair market right now. With another 5-7 sack season, I’d say that 21-24M would be market, but I’m not sure I’d pay it.

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McNeil was dominant in the NFC championship game mostly playing NT because the Lions didn’t have a starting caliber player on the roster.
In that game he played the majority of his plays next to 37 year old washed up Tyson Alualu. The only other NT was Benito Jones and he played just 13 snaps.
Jones’ play steadily went down throughout the season and the Lions have a lot of players that can rotate in at 3T than they do at NT.
So Alim went back to NT and Cominsky, Levi, Alualu, and Paschal could rotate at 3T.
If your NT doesn’t require a double team he is not worth playing.
Alim required a double team and no other NT on the roster consistently required a double team.
This is what made the Reader free agent signing such a high priority.

Now just think what McNeil can do with competent NT play next to him!

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I honestly would not be surprised if Alim reached double digit sacks if this DLine remains relatively healthy.

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Wouldn’t surprise me. He was on pace for 7 or 8 last year before he hurt his knee and missed a month. Now playing beside Reader… I expect 8+ sacks.

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You are really caught up in counting sacks.
These GM’s are not paying these huge salaries to DT’s for just sacks.
Q. Williams: ($24M AAV) has one double digit sack season; 2023: 5.5 sacks
Jeffery Simmons: ($23.5M AAV) has never had a double digit sack season; 2023 5.5 sacks
Christian Wilkins: ($27.5 AAV) has never had a double digit sack season. Avg. 3 sacks per season in 1st 4 seasons. 2023: 9 sacks
Daron Payne: ($22.5M AAV) one double digit sack season; 2023: 4 sacks
Derrick Brown: ($24M AAV) has avg. 2 sacks per season in 4 year career; 2023: 2 sacks
Christian Barmore: ($21M AAV) had 4 total sacks in 1st 2 years of career before 2023: 8.5 sacks
Jonathan Allen: ($18M AAV) never had a double digit sack season; 2023 5.5 sacks
Dexter Lawrence: ($22M AAV) never had a double digit sack season; 2023: 4.5 sacks
Justin Madubuike: ($24.5M AAV) had 8.5 total sacks in 1st 3 seasons before 2023: 13 sacks

These DT’s are paid like this because they create interior pass pressure if not double teamed and can often beat double teams.
They create havoc in the middle of the opponents offensive line and make everything easier for the entire defense. Many of them also play the run well.
Coaches and GM’s cherish these players because they are very hard to find.
Alim plays the run better than almost all of these players. He is an ascending player that has gotten better every year and at 24 he will be younger than all when he is a free agent.
Alim got 5 sacks through 13 games (6.5 sack rate for 17 games) and a sack in the NFCCG playing next to a bunch of rotational players at 3T and NT with only one other plus player on the D-line.

Dan and Brad know what they have in Alim.
Dan has indicated that he thinks McNeill can continue to get better.
I expect McNeill to do significantly better this season but even if he only maintains his 2023 form (dominant against the run and 6.5 sack rate) for a full season, Holmes will gladly pay him $25M AAV and keep a core defensive player.
There is no developmental player on the roster that will ever be able to do what Alim can do.
Wingo is a nice developmental player that is more along the lines of Cominsky or Paschal than McNeill. He just doesn’t have the frame to play NT & 3T at a high level like Alim. The coaches have already mentioned Wingo as going between 3T and Big End.
If he stays healthy (and to a lesser extent Reader stays healthy) I expect a big season from McNeill and a big contract.
To get a player that can do what Alim can do from the outside will cost just as much as paying McNeill, and Holmes will always pay HIS GUYS before some outside mercenary.

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Well said.

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Alim wasn’t double teamed much vs SF. They chipped him a few times but didn’t really double team him much.

I just went back and watched a bunch of all 22 film on him. For the last two seasons. Here is what I found.

He actually wasn’t double teamed much all year. Chipped some but rarely double teamed.

In 2023 he played primarily at 3T, about 80 % of the time. We did play him at 4t a fair amount and the rest he was either 5T or NT.

His ability to disengage blocks and shed blocks drastically improved in 2023. He also developed a spin move that he applied with some success. So he’s trending upwards in pass rush moves. Still a lot to learn here but definitely treading the right way.

He did however have some games where he struggled and was clearly out matched. In those games he struggled to get off blocks and make plays. When his blocker got leverage on him they were able to drive him back off the ball with some success.

One thing that stood out to me was how often we took him out on obvious passing plays. I didn’t realize the Lions took him out about half the time. This would affect his sack numbers as a lot of DT’s get their sacks on the obvious passing plays.

I know PFF has him listed as the 15th best overall DT but they have him listed 5th as a run stuffer and that number just is not accurate. He’s 80th in tackles, his run stop percentage he is ranked 60th. He’s also 25th at average tackle depth. Giving up about 2 yards on average per tackle.

Sunmary:

He is currently not a top 10 DT. His play and stats don’t support a claim like that.

He’s definitely getting better and his pass rush moves are improving. It also appears that his upper body strength is improving as he’s winning by brute force at a higher percentage than he ever was.

With Reader eating up double teams and making it harder to chip McNeil. I suspect his number will continue on the upward swing.

I also suspect that the Lions will use him more on obvious passing downs which will give him more opportunities to make sacks. So there’s no reason to expect his sack number won’t improve too.

With that said …. Top 5 money is a stretch unless he improves a great deal this year. He’s going to need to be more consistent and dominant across the board before that happens. Top 10 money is more realistic but that’s also assuming he continues to trend upwards.

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Who’s got it better than us? You guys are awesome at the football stuff and far beyond that too. I love me my Den.

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I have used my fair share of message boards in my time, related to the Lions and other teams. The amount of useful information and intelligent conversation I find around here are unlike I’ve seen on any other board I’ve participated in.

I probably check in on this board upwards of 10+ times a day. Definitely lucky to have this place as I live in PA, so I don’t get to talk lions football to much with people around here.

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I don’t want to get into opinions on chipping vs, doubles. It is subjective based on how long the second blocker stays engaged before moving on.
My point was that McNeill required the second blocker more than the actual NT.

Early in the season McNeill played mostly 3T with both Buggs and Jones on the roster. As the season progressed he played more NT as Buggs was released and Benito’s play fell off.

McNeill was a 23 year old in his first season as a 3T. He is an ascending player and of course he has a lot to learn. That’s is partially what makes him so valuable in his next contract.

It’s the NFL.
All players lose reps. I can make an entire highlight reel of plays that Aaron Donald has lost.

The Lions and many other teams take out NT’s and bigger 3T’s and reduce edge rushers inside on obvious passing situations.
McNeill and Jones would usually come out and Cominsky and/or Paschal would move inside to DT and another edge rusher would come in the game.

DT stats are not easy to measure because of different schemes and techniques. 3T’s and NT’s are lumped together and some players play both. Also some schemes call for penetration and others are two gap or AG’s 1.5 gap scheme.
Also, McNeill only played in 13 games. So I give the grade more weight than who had the most tackles.

You’ve just mentioned how much better you anticipate him being this season and how his stats will be improved. Almost all of the top DT’s had career sack seasons in their contract year.
Improved stats will give him leverage to match or exceed every top 5 DT except Chris Jones.
McNeill’s stats will be equal to or better than the the DT’s with the top 2-5 AAV contracts in the NFL.
He can compare to #2 Wilkins, one year wonder #3 Madubuike, he blows #4 Derrick Brown out of the water, and Q. Williams is not far off.
It doesn’t matter even if he is not top 5, it is more important that he is next up.
Was Goff or Trevor Lawrence a top 5 QB when they got their contracts?
Was ARSB the best WR when he got his #1 contract?
Tua will likely get a contract worth more than Goff.
Dak will likely be the highest paid QB when he signs.
Are either in the top 5 QB’s?

The more I look at it, If McNeill plays the entire season and has an even slight improvement over this season he is sure to earn a top 5 DT salary.
I imagine somewhere between $25M (which would make him #3) and $28M (which would make him #2) in AAV.

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You’re blurring the line between The Den and The Octagon, @MittenSportsFan. Bravo. I know I’m going to think long and hard before I ever challenge you to convince me of anything. LOL

Brad–and much less The Den–doesn’t insist that his team shoehorns their opinions and facts/perceptions into agreement, just that they lay out their case. In Alim’s case, another season and facts/perceptions will unfold before Brad has to pull the trigger or not.

Unless Brad is setting the stage for Salary Cap Nuclear Winter, I can’t intuitively figure out how paying Alim and Hutch their $25M+ dues can work without squeezing deserving players down the line. Fortunately, I don’t have to–I get to watch.

Maybe this fanboy needs a summer break as much as the players do…