Guys- if we’re thinking the Lions are going to have to take whatever scrap Miami is willing to toss us for the privilege of landing Tua Tagovailoa, think again.
Consider that the Chargers are rolling into a new stadium. They are desperately trying to carve out a fan base against a powerful cross-town rival Rams franchise with LA history, a bright young head coach, and a Super Bowl trip less than 2 years ago. How do the Chargers compete against all of that? Well, we know they swung for the fences in an attempt to do just that recently by pursuing (and missing out on) a franchise-defining QB- Tom Brady.
I for one cannot imagine a scenario where Miami and LAC don’t bid aggressively against one another for Tua at 3. LAC will offer 6 & 37. Miami counters with 5 & 26. LAC sweetens the pot with 6, 37, & 71. Miami coughs up 5, 26, & 56… LAC kicks in a 2nd rounder in 2021…you get my point. I firmly believe the Lions end up with at least 3 picks for #3 OA- and quite possibly more. History clearly shows Jimmy Johnson’s sacred draft trade value chart is tossed out the window when multiple teams are vying for a top 3 franchise QB.
Here’s where it gets real interesting. I believe the Jaguars are a legit dark horse in the Tua sweepstakes. Right now, last years 7th round pick Gardner Minshew sits atop Jacksonville’s QB depth chart. Sure, he had a decent rookie year. But think about it…If GM Dave Caldwell wants to finally land the true franchise QB he’s never had, he can do that right now by offerIng 9, 20 & 73 along with a 2021 1st rounder (they have 2 1st round picks in 2021).
The Lions will have 2 if not 3 QB-desperate teams all vying for their #3 overall pick.
So which offer do you take ?
1.) Miami’s 5, 26, & 56
2.) LAC’s 6, 37, & 71 + 2021 2nd rounder
3.) Jacksonville’s 9, 20 & 73 + 2021 1st rounder
I agree on a potential bidding war, however, not sure who is the target in this potential war. While everyone, most folks, are focused on Detroit being the target it easily could be Washington.
It’s going to depend on the Dr.’s. If Tua’s hip is universally viewed as no problem whatsoever then I think we are going to have multiple bidders and end up with very good compensation.
I agree to an extent, but there are a few mitigating factors.
For one, Jacksonville could be tanking for next year. In fact if I had to guess, I’d assume that’s what they’re doing. See what they have in Minshew for a year, if he sucks trade up for Lawrence/Fields. If he’s good then they’re good.
Miami might like Herbert. It’s smoke screen season so it could all be BS, but it has to be considered.
Where I really agree with you is the Chargers. I fully expect them to be in for Tua for the exact reasons you mentioned. My biggest questions are about who they’re competing with.
So we might have a bidding war break out, but we might not. I really hope so, a trade down with Miami or LAC works out great for us, but we’ll see.
I actually believe the exact opposite will happen. The Chargers and Miami are both interested in QB’s but remember, Cam Newton and Andy Dalton are still available as well. Both Tua and Herbert are not slam dunks and teams aren’t even able to work them out right now. I think Miami sits back and takes which QB falls to them and San Diego might not even go QB in round 1. Just my two cents but I think the Lions will not get even close to the kind of value you guys are thinking they are getting.
I’m pretty certain that Tua is the apple of Miami’s eye. Jax I’m not so sure about. If they are intent on staying in that market then he really is perfect for them from a marketing POV.
I also think the suck for Luck type of strategy is a pretty risky one. Look at Miami. Only takes one or two bounces and you’re out of the top 2.
I like all three options. If I have to, the best deal overall is option 2, but because this staff is on their “or else” year, 2021 picks aren’t as much of a value. So option… 3. With that we go with the best CB left in the 2nd, maybe Terrell or Diggs if he falls. Adding Kinlaw and Chaisson to our front seven would be deadly!
If interest is high enough to offer the options you mentioned, then they will be offered to WASH at #2 as well and that will be too good for them to pass up.
In other words, I think the most likely scenarios are one of the following:
We take a mild trade back and gain an extra 2nd rounder
We don’t risk trains back (or don’t receive offers) and pick at #3
Chase Young is available at #3 because a bidding war broke out for WASH’s #2 and they took it.
What I can’t understand is why a universal view here on this board is that Tua can ever be healthy or deemed healed .
It will not shock me one bit if Tua drops past Miami and we stay put at #3 and Tua drops out of the top 10 or even the entire first round(Likely? No) . Tua is damaged goods …his 4/9/20 Pro Day is cancelled. Teams will not be able to do any real testing and even if they could, nothing will speak to any possible re-occurrence .
Matt Miller reports several teams have Herbert over Tua that GM’s like Herbert better regardless of injury to Tua and that he is over hyped , great team , great weapons , arm strength below average and not very durable and undersized. Chris Simms has Herbert and Love over Tua and does a nice QB breakdown.
A GM has to not only invest $30 Million in Tua that early, but will also have to give up draft picks to move up for a QB that is a likely a sit for 2020. GM’s will literally be putting jobs on the line to take him. Passing on him is valid and safe… GM’s do not lose jobs for passing on questionable injury risk players but for wasting picks and taking risks that need not be done… they do
No player ever has stayed healthy after this injury. Re occurrence much more likely . No one is ever the same post this type of injury.
The down playing of just how serious this injury is and the long term outlook for any athlete after suffering this particular injury is so weird to me. Most people here are usually much more on the ball or at minimum more knowledgeable then the avg fan on stuff like this.
What I can’t understand is why people want to compare his injury to Bo Jackson’s. His surgeon even said it was “completely different” and his prognosis is excellent. Bo even kept playing on his, making the situation much worse, even though the injuries were not the same.
Yes, it’s still a risk. Everyone knows that. Drafting Jahvid Best was an even bigger risk, because the dude had scrambled eggs for brains before we took him. Drafting Titus Young was a bigger risk because he was mentally ill before we took him. Drafting Charles Rogers was a risk, because he was a lawless clown well before we took him. Drafting TJH #8 was a dumb risk and we took it. None of those players had the potential to become elite players at the NFL level, yet we took them. Somehow taking a guy who looks to be rehabbing very well from an injury is still a risk, but not nearly as big as you make it out.
There’s no reason to try and compare injuries, because Tua’s was different and he is already WAY ahead of where Bo ever got. Comparing Tua’s injury to Bo Jackson’s or someone else’s is just reaching for a comparison that simply isn’t there. It’s the same as saying you cannot return from an ACL injury, because a guy in the 70’s tore his and had to retire.
Respectfully your take on Tua’s injury is so off …You are 100% correct Tua’s injury is not comparable to BO’s injury…Bo’s injury in comparison to Tua was minimal …None of the other stuff is relevant Best, Titus etc . An ACL injury not relevant either .Also Bo never played another snap as an NFL RB after his hip dislocation not that it matters .
Bo’s injury was so less severe then Tua’s injury, not remotely close . Not even in the same ball park . Bo’s injury or what happened to Bo was bad luck and his down fall was not the injury but AVN , his down fall was not the injury but complications .
I think the thing is that we cannot say for sure one way or the other on how teams view Tua. You might be right and he is not the target that many(much more then just Lions fans) believe he is for Miami and LAC. On the other hand we could be right and there might be a bidding war for teams to move up for him. Now in either case that does not change the fact that both Miami and LAC need a QB, now Tua may not be the target but Herbert might be the target. Now if both teams like Herbert that would provide an even bigger bidding war since Tua is out of the picture and neither team would want to take a chance on him.
IMO I always follow the old saying “Expect the best scenario and plan for the worst scenario.” So my guess is that teams still want a QB and are willing to move up for their target. SO it does not matter which QB they are willing to move up for. Now if I am wrong, so be it, but the Lions will probable have the same options at #3 as they would have at #5/#6, they just wouldn’t get the extra picks many of us are hoping that they get.
If that’s the case he will be gone by 2. Too many teams in the market for a QB and GMS get way to thirsty for the QB position at this point every year. 2012: Luck and RGIII, 2015: Winston and Mariota, 2016 Goff and Wentz, And Tua is a better prospect than most of the people on that list. For the love of God, the Bears moved up to 2 to get Trubisky. I think all this talk of trading down for a bundle of picks is just Lions fans being hopeful and optimistic. Just be happy there’s a great chance Young is sitting there at 3.
Ok, so people should stop comparing him to Bo then. Tua is already running, looks nimble as hell and more mobile than half the starting NFL QBs right now. This is just a few months after surgery. I know it’s just some small videos, but still, I think it’s very impressive. I mean, I haven’t seen Stafford doing 500 pound squats right now, but the docs say he’s good to go. Should I call him damaged goods and say he will never play again?
I’m gonna go ahead and go with the medical professional’s opinion on this one that he will be fine. Seems like most draft boards and vegas agree. If not, he wouldn’t be on any of them.
You want to take a friendly bet that Tua doesn’t get out of the top 3? 100 bucks? I’m Quarantined and bored. Let’s make the lead up to the draft a little more interesting.
