No long-term study or anything like that, but I do remember the 2013 draft was billed in a similar way….
2009 was similar. I wasn’t a Stafford guy but there just wasn’t anyone else worth taking at the top of the draft. The only player I liked much was BJ Raji. None of the players taken after Stafford in the top ten had distinguished careers
I do think it is pretty predictable. Not perfectly, but reliably. Go back to 1989 and everyone agreed the top of that draft was loaded - then four out of the top five ended in the HoF
The Hutch expectations thought hit me while reading an article in the Detroit paper this am, think it was the news. It was discussing the Chris Long comparison and showed his stats for his 11 years in the league, he was also #2 pick, he had a total of 70 sacks in 11 years.
Would you, question for all-post not really a direct reply to Big, be happy with that for Hutchinson?
Then, I read in the 40 yrs, 1982, since sacks became a tracked NFL stat the 70 number ranked 98th in league history. Does that change your answer to the question above?
Am I the only one surprised that 70 total sacks is in the top 100 in the history of the NFL?
Yeah, and last year’s class was supposed to be loaded as well, and basically all of the non-QBs in the top 15 were immediately some of the best players at their positions (Sewell, Chase, Pitts, Waddle, Davonta Smith, Surtain, Slater, Parsons, Horn was playing well before he got hurt). Jury’s still out on the QBs but I think it’ll go down as an all-timer as well.
Last year’s draft might also inform the perception of the '22 draft, which is also confounded by the lack of quarterbacks.
I do think '22 has a lot of high end talent, with a hard delineation between an “elite” tier of the top 14 and a secondary tier from 15 through much of the second round
What was particularly odd about Watson’s grades was it came on the heels of Dak Prescott having immediate success in the NFL. And Watson looked like a rich man’s version of Dak. Count me as another person who missed the boat on Mahomes.
The 99 draft for QBs was kind of like the 2020 draft. It was super hyped and the following years class in 2000 and 2021 was considered dog shit with only 1 QB going in the late 1st round and no QBs going in the 2nd round. However, the 1999 class had a few decent QBs and a bunch of busts…while the 2000 class produced Tom Brady. In the end the poorly thought of 2000 class produced as many starters as the 1999 class with the best QB coming out of the 2000 class.
At the time the class had some hype to it that was well beyond the end results. The biggest hype came with the offensive lineman. Fisher and Joeckel were considered elite “dancing bears” because of how well they moved…in particular Joeckel. They didn’t consider the fact that both of them needed a brick in their pocket just to break 300 lbs. Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack were hyped as generational talents at guard, with Warmack getting Larry Allen comparisons. Dee Milliner was also getting “generational talent” verbiage because he was (at the time) a rare 6’ corner who was over 200 lbs but could run a sub 4.4. And Kenny Vaccaro received Kyle Hamilton type hype as a rare specimen for the position that could go in the top 10. Tyler Eifert was the next big thing at TE. Basically everything that Travis Kelce has become from that class…Eifert was hyped to be. And let’s not forget Tavon Austin, who was going to be the do it all guy that Deebo Samuel has become.
An interesting note on Warmack is he came out a few years ago and said one of his biggest gripes was that he was being coached by guys who had never played in the NFL. “How are you going to teach me when you’ve never actually done it?” I find it interesting because of how our staff is structured currently.
I’m 100 percent with this post. I have said since the Stafford trade…even in the midst of an 0-10 start…that I have to give Brad and DC at least a chance at using the draft capital that they acquired before I can say anything about them. The drafts the first two years have been impressive…we will see how it translates on the field….but I am all for drafting that QB next year
“He said Aidan Hutchinson reminded him of Chris Long, whom Holmes scouted in 2008 for the Rams.”
Thing about the Chris Long comparison is Chris could not ‘carry’ a team and Brad and Dan aren’t building teams that need a star to carry them. I know that’s a-typical but think the Ben Wallace/Chauncy Billups Pistons. That’s Detroit-style. Tough, really-talented, but 8 or 10 B+ guys who will swarm your A+ guy and take his lunch money and his pride.
What I took was he said the 2020 Hutch reminded him of when he drafted Chris Long. Long, at the time who played interior and they drafted him projecting him to edge. 2020 Hutch played more interior and Holmes would have drafted him projecting his edge skills
But 2021 Hutch played edge and killed it. So he moved past that comparison
that’s exactly how I took it …it was the inside play and projection to the outside. He was comparing to when Aidan was playing inside early in his college career.
I could see the Lions using Hutch inside at DT in certain passing situations, same with Paschal.
We really struggled last year with interior pass rush. It was far too easy for QB’s to step up in the pocket.
We should be able to run our version of a nascar D-line, which is basically 4 D-ends on the field at the same time. Using a combination of Harris, the Okwara Bros, Hutch and Paschal. Even Houston showed some real good burst off the edge. In passing situations I don’t expect Alim or Brockers to be on the field.
I would not be happy with it, but okay with it. I am hoping for (not expecting) some sort of Watt/Bosa/Jared Allen-sorta thing. Anything like that would be SO exciting.
I think he’s going to get more “Man strength” in the offseason. Some may lower their expectations, based on this year’s performance, but be surprised at what he does next year?
I truly have no idea. Nothing would truly surprise me.
I think, in this draft, it is what it is, in terms of taking best of what is available to you.
Never worry bout being a wet blanket. The fire is so big that if you throw a wet blanket on…it just takes a little longer to burn.
I think we’ll win 10.
I think Goff improves a ton.
I have NO clue whatsoever what we do in next draft, given the progress I expect form Goff.
If they don’t go QB, I think I finally get my game wrecking DT??? (Brockers’s replacement?)
If they decide to replace Vatai with a rook for $$ reasons, go OL?
I don’t know what to expect. Is there a RB worthy of a late first/early 2nd? 3rd?
Not sure what to expect next offseason…some LBs within the first 3 rounds (and/or FA) are likely.
Everyone is posting comments that is looking at Hutch in a vacuum, but football is a team sport and Hutch’s value will be augmented or offset by the players around him. Long was a fine player who did not get the support around him to allow him to reach his full potential. Contrast Long with Von Miller, who currently sits at #22 with 114.5 sacks (and still playing). Miller did alright his first couple of years, but then the Cowboys decide they wouldn’t pay DeMarcus Ware and Ware gets signed by the Broncos ( on a one year contract), playing opposite from Miller. Miller blows up and dominates his games that year, finishing off with his destruction of Cam Newton in the Super Bowl and being named Super Bowl MVP. Miller does very well the next couple of years with Shaq Barrett replacing Ware. No, you don’t have to have an All-Pro or Pro Bowler on the other end, but you do have to have someone good enough that the o-line can’t simply slide your way on every down.
Hutch is a very solid piece of the puzzle, but Holmes has to do it again next year to get more talent around Long to allow him to succeed. I actually think we will see Paschal lining up inside to get more pressure from the interior of the line, which will help Hutch out. We’ve had two very solid drafts in a row from Holmes, so I am very optimistic that the Lions are headed in the right direction. How good Hutch becomes will be a function of how good are the people around him.
I would like to add…
I think they absolutely WILL be willing to get another injured guy next year too, if it shakes down the way it did with Mitchell and J-Will. Fastest way to boost the roster, even if it’s a 1/2 year out before you get 'em. We are in position to make moves like that…even next year. Year after that, it will be" We’re shooting for the SB Right MF’n NOW!!!"
Chris Long says he’s honored to be Aidan Hutchinson’s comp. But he says Aidan is a better player them him at this point. He agrees with Holmes comp with the water jug tho.
He says Aidan should be a 10-12 sack guy but is strength will be moving on the DLine and stopping the run.
I agree that it helps massively to have multiple pass rushers. But, Miller was unreal from day 1, not alright his first couple years. Year one, he had 11.5 sacks and won rookie of the year. Year 2, he had 18.5 sacks and was 2nd in defensive player of the year. He was an all pro in both seasons and they occurred before Ware was in town.
The best DE to play opposite of Chris Long for 2008, 2009 and 2010 was James Hall! Then in 2011 the Rams drafted Robert Quinn. I have highlighted what happened that year in Long’s career.
He was wrong about Miller getting a slow start but his overall premise was correct. Miller was playing with Elvis Dumervil before Demarcus Ware got there. And for anyone who has forgotten how good Dumervil was, he was a 3 time All Pro and before Miller got there he finished 3rd in Defensive Players of the Year voting.
Great point on Elvis, he was a stud as well. Multiple pass rushers are needed to have a dominating front. Just look at Hutch @ Michigan, he had Ojabo on the other side. The Lions have some potential though. Romeo was a 10 sack guy before the injury. Harris put up 7.5 last year. Julian put up 5 sacks in limited playing time. The addition of Hutch should help all those guys. Paschal has shown the ability to get pass rush in college.
