Chicago and Minny are much closer to overtaking the Packers than we are. There is much to do. I do not expect a team that can compete for the division until 2023. The roster is in shambles and 1 draft is not going to be enough to straighten things out.
I have no expectation of hitting 9+ wins next year.
Hopefully next year we can win 5 or 6, and in year 3 is when realistically you might have a shot at the playoffs if all the draft picks from 2021 and 2022 develop and improve and Rodgers is long gone from the division.
Jim Shorts as an example won 2 his 1st season, 6 his second and 10 his 3rd. If you are not close to being a playoff team by year 3, it’s time to fire the coach and GM. 3 seasons is plenty of time to turn it around in the modern nfl.
No.
Long answer:
I’m with you. I wouldn’t say “plenty of time”, but it’s all the time you’re going to get in the league.
Completely agree. I also think Chicago has some aging players, like Mack. That dude is irreplaceable, and he seems to have started to drop off…they look different, and if Fields doesn’t work out - they are not scary at all.
MN, while much closer than us, has a solid (not great) QB. When he’s protected, he can make some really tough passes, but when he gets moderately pressured, he drops off the face of the earth…he’s always pressured during playoffs.
I do agree that the roster is in shambles…BUT…Injuried come back, dead cap space falls off, and a couple of monster contracts fall off the books = 2 or 3 good to solid FAs (hopefully one stud and a couple of contributors). Then the draft.
To me, depends on what you mean by “straighten it out.” Straightened out, to me, means borderline wildcard. I DO think we can achieve that in another offseason. Healthy OL, and some home run threats at WR, and the O should be decent. Gives us the consistency of a run game with a punchers chance of home run ability, even when they are outmatched by better rosters (like MN).
I think the D will be massively improved next offseason.
I feel people underestimate the impact the salary situation has has on this year’s lack of talent.
I feel people underestimate the impact the injuries have had on this year’s lack of production.
In looking at what we will have next year that we have not had this year, the difference in team health alone is absolutely insane.
We don’t even know who Levi is yet.
Decker (Backup proven to be solid backup = experienced depth)
Ragnow (backup proven to be a solid backup = experienced depth)
We don’t know who Okudah is yet, literally haven’t seen him healthy (please note, I’m not assuming we will)
Iffy - improving nicely and showing flashes
Cephus - improving nicely and showing flashes
There are more that will be depth guys. We’ve had some tough sledding with injuries.
So it’s not just the draft to get it right, it’s the draft (likely 3-5 starters)
Another 5 coming back from the injured list
AND
at least a couple of solid FAs
That’s potentially THIRTEEN guys that are not currently playing on Sundays.
Thurrr-MF’n-Teeeen!
That’s a very different story than “fix it in one draft.”
Sometimes I’m completely full of shit (often, actually), but from my perspective, there’s nothing to jump off the cliff over, just yet.
This leads to the “straighten out” part… The monster contracts coming off the books are Flowers and Vaitai. But, in shedding them you create more dead cap. The 2 of them will be around 17 mil in dead money, added to Collins and Tavai puts us at 24 mil in dead money going into 2022. Before it’s all said and done, you can be sure we’ll be top 10 in dead money again, nearing 30 mil. That’s far better than where we’re at now, but still a wrinkle from the last regime that’s being straightened.
You’re right that we’re not entirely sure what we have in Levi, and the same can be said for several others. That same unknown will exist with a number of players next year as we continue adding and relying on rookies.
SO true. I feel like we need to maybe risk it on some high ceiling guys.
And, since I’m so cheery this morning, pondering the realization that no team in the NFL has a greater TBMS (Time Between Meaningful Snaps) than the Lions, I just want to share:
And Shorts had a QB to build around so if this group of Lions wants to make a similar jump, gotta get that QB.
I was in the no QB in the draft group for awhile, but I’m starting to come around. There is no blue chip QB this year and I wouldn’t consider one with our top pick. There does seem to be a lot of guys with a ton of upside who just aren’t “clean” prospects.
Desmond Ridder
Malik Willis
Carson Strong
Kenny Pickett
Sam Howell
All these guys seem to have really high ceilings. Obviously the bust factor is there as well, but I’m intrigued to see how the rest of this college season plays out as well as the off-season because there are quite a few QB’s that will go late on day 1 and day 2 that with the right coaching may turn into something.
Never say never…but no not a damn chance.
I’d settle for being able to stomach watching them. Or feeling like they are on to something for 2023.
Why not aaron rodgers? Grab him wr’s with one of the first rd picks and go defense and this team could win division next season. Sign him for 2-3 yrs
Why not Satan?
Why not resurrect Genghis Khan?
Is Thanos not available?
But on the plus side the Vikings are getting older at qb, love doesn’t look like he’s going to continue the legacy, and who knows with fields. Also Mack is nearing the end of his career. So suddenly the future looks a lot more interesting. Finally we don’t have to play a hall of fame quarterback twice a season. Maybe we’ll finally start winning our division and actually getting a playoff game at home!
I’m all about the first round bye
Vatai some moves i like he is not leaving at least next season he has played very well at least to hold his job. Thats the fact so far anyway.
Why big money on a CB when we have like 8 already before the FA time an draft, Juts keep adding one an couple of undrafted ones.
Why Mike Williams if QB can’t throw deep now why would he next season. I keep saying WRs can’t catch dam ball if its not thrown.
So ideas sound ok I think they like Boye a little more that Blough.
They i doubt could trade Goff an he would be ok to help young QB Don’t need Mriota.
I don’t think Nelson makes roster next year he mayb but my guess is he will not.
I like Marcus Williams thats about all the adds Keep ae own like that know what your getting for sure.
First round bye would be great. I want a home playoff game more than that though. Especially since that would lessen the chance of the officials screwing us over. If the 2014 game vs Dallas had been in Detroit we win that game easily.
First round bye is equivalent to a playoff win AND a home game. You host, when you have the first round bye, you just avoid the wildcard round altogether.
The season is pretty much over for us at this point and I think we are essentially locked into the 2nd pick. I think with all the injuries we had we out-performed more often then not and also gave us the opportunity for un-earth some gems. Anyway here goes my revised 2022 off-season plan
Re-sign
JRM 3 years 14mil, year 1 cap hit 3mil - This guy has impressed me as much as any player on the roster this year based on expectations coming into this year. He has gone from an after thought on defense to a solid starter for us. These are the types of guys you build your roster with and he can return as a potential starter, and your best special teams player.
Anzalone 1 year, 1.5mil Great veteran presence, but should be depth next year.
Walker 2 years, 12mil, year 1 cap hit 4mil Walker had an awesome start to the year, but he has really faded down the stretch. Maybe part of that is injuries or dealing with a lot of youth in the secondary, but he has lost some money for sure. A two year deal allows him to hit free agency again before 30 at a chance for a bigger payday.
Raymond 1 year 1.5mil I like the depth he provides, but he should be no higher than the 5th WR and I wouldn’t pay a lot to bring him back.
Charles Harris 3 years 24mil, year 1 cap hit 5mil This guy has mae himself some money for sure. I believe the contract in reasonabl as teams won’t be lining up to overpay a guy with only one year of solid production. He has already said he wants to come back so I believe they come to terms on a reasonable deal and show they are willing to keep their own.
Josh Reynolds 2 years 8mil year 1 cap hit 3mil Reynolds has added some stability to this offense and makes a lot of sense to keep him around. He makes for a reliiable #2 guy, but I also wouldn’t be upset if we added some talent that pushed him down the depth chart to #4.
Release Trey Flowers. This is a foregone conclusion at this point. We are currently sitting on about 38-39mil in cap space in 2022. Releasing Flowers brings us just under 50mil. With these re-signings we are brought back down to 35mil. The Lions rookie class will cost roughly 10mil in cap space and we need to set aside another 5mil for the season so that brings us to 20mil in cap space to spend in free agency.
Sign
Marcus Williams, S - 5 years, 65mil, year 1 cap hit 7mil This has been my #1 target for a long time. He will bring stability we haven’t had at safety since Glover Quinn left. I think his presence allows Walker to play more freely and will give a guy like Amani even more confidence to take more chances knowing he has Williams back there. This is the type of addition that can really elevate the entire defense and is well worth the money.
DJ Chark, WR - 2 years 16mil, year 1 cap hit 6mil Chark is a guy that will not break the bank and offers a skillset we desperately lack, speed. He would do wonders for our running game as more often than not you will have to keep a safety over the top and could be deadly on play action here as he has the ability to quickly get over the top of LB’ers who step up. Love the value and fit in this offense.
BJ Hill 3 years 18mil, year 1 cap hit 4mil He has ben a very solid player for most of his career, but was stuck in a talented D-Line rotation with the Giants. Was able to get more snaps in Cincy this year and has played very well. He is almost 26 years old and would fit in very nicely as a guy who can kick inside on passing downs and offer some pass rush and has played as a 3-4 DE before.
Mo Alie Cox 2 years, 6mil, year one cap hit 2mil Solid backup TE who can start in a pinch.
Casey Hayward 2 years, 12mil, year one cap hit 4mil Brings a veteran into the mix at CB and insurance in case Okudah struggles in his come back. I believe he will be able to assist in the development of all the young CB’s we have back there as well.
That is 23mil in cap space and with the guys place they take of the roster it would actually count closer to 19mil.
Draft Hutchinson, Devin Lloyd, Drake London, Desmond Ridder, then find a backup G/T, TE, S, and a 3-4 DE with the remaining picks.
Offense
QB Goff, Ridder (Boyle on PS?)
RB Swift, Williams, Reynolds, Jefferson
FB Cabinda
WR London, Chark, St. Brown, Reynolds, Cephus, Raymond,
TE Hockenson, Alie Cox, Wright/rookie
LT Decker, rookie
LG Jackson, Kraemar
C Ragnow, Evan Brown
RG Vatai
RT Sewell, Nelson
Defense
DE Brockers, Hill, Onwuzurike, rookie
NT McNeil, Penisini
Edge Hutchinson, R. Okwara, Harris, J. Okwara, Bryant
ILBer Devin Lloyd, JRM, Anzalone, Barnes
CB Okudah, Amani, Hayward, Parker, Jacobs, Melifonwu
S Marcus Williams, Tracy Walker, Will Harris, rookie
Special Teams
K Patterson
P Fox
LS Daly
Really like the potential of the back 7 on defense. The D-line would depend mostly on the development on Onwuzurike and McNeil. On offense we don’t need much, but we get a reliable backup TE and add a big physical WR and a deep threat to the guys we already have. If Goff can play like he has this past month, we would be competing for the Aaron Rodgers less NFC North in 2022.
I think we can double our win total in 2022 unless we win our final two games.
