I’m hopeful with Okudah, all the injuries are a major concern however. And if we are paying him 11 mill per season, he better be a lot more than a #4 CB, it’ll be interesting to see if Dre Bly can help him.
- Pick up the 5th year at 11M
- Decline the 5th year option
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My understanding is the 5th year option is really a team option meaning extending leverage past the current season. Is that right? And that the tag can be rescinded at any point as well?
If you tag a player you are controlling the player another season without a long-term contract in place.
I am not picking up the option as I want to see what he can do when he is motivated. I am in the Air camp in that I haven’t seen enough from him yet.
I understand if you put a play in a position like that you are likely going to have to pay more to keep them as the player is likely pissed. So be it. Before I lock him down to a long term deal I want to know if he is a #1, #3 or a depth CB and I don’t feel like we know what he is yet and that is a problem
If he starts hitting his ceiling I am open to extending him but I don’t see the upside to extending him at this point. if I am betting $ right now I am taking the under on whether or not Okudah ever becomes a stud for the majority of a season. If he does I am willing to pay him at that point even if it costs me more down the road as Jeff is pissed about not picking up his option.
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No, I don’t believe you can. Pretty sure it becomes fully guaranteed when you pick it up.
I lean towards not picking it up but not knowing the precise reason he wss benched late in the year makes that tricky.
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Okudah is currently the 25th highest paid CB, just ahead of Sauce by a few sheckels.
Pushing him to 11m makes him 17th, just ahead of DJ Reed, Darby and a bunch of guys who have played a whole lot better than he has (injury, I know).
Let’s Best Middle Worst this scenario of 2023
Best- He finally gets it, it all clicks and he is a top 10 corner. Confidence interval- 10% In this case if you own a $11m option, there is likely some value to the option than if you had to re-sign him at the low end of top 10 money, like $16M a year AAV.
Middle- Okudah plays like a NFL starter, shows some improvement and isnt a source of trouble (NOTE-THIS WOULD BE BETTER THAN 2022s results but projects some advancement in his play.)
Confidence level 60%
At this point there isnt any monetary value from a market savings in his option, but could reasonably be explained as value due to culture fit and possible 5th year cintinued growth.
Bottom- He is who he was in 2022, or worse, gets hurt again.
Confidence level-30%
The option has negative value even if you factor fit/culture.
You could play with those %s and maybe break the Middle into 2 scenarios…but to me, unless the team thinks he has a legit sgot to be a #10 or above corner Next Year, the option (if it is guaranteed) doesnt warrant the risk. If it is simply setting the salary for a 5th year of control without guaranteeing that payout, well, at that point it’s a keeper and you pick it up, since there isnt any risk.
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That’s incorrect from my understanding… For example, the Lions picked up Ebron’s 5th year option, but then released him after his 4th year with no penalty.
Upon being exercised, the fifth year option is fully guaranteed, and any base salary in the player’s fourth year that was not fully guaranteed will become so.
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Yep, May whatever, we either enter into a fully guaranteed 5th year deal for $11m w Okudah or his status after Yr 4 is FA.
If this past year was better, I’d be ok w it. Given it was up and down, nope. I think he will play well next year, but given the salary levels I showed, 11m is an overpay for a 2 and probably break even for a 1.
Now, you do have to factor in the NFL Cap going up quite a bit for 24 and probably thereafter…
I feel like he is a option decline and extension negotiation decision based on his play through the year next year. He may want tontake advantage of getting to FA a year early, and may not react well to a 1st rd high pick at CB from us in a few months or a CB signing in a few weeks. A FA #1CB by Brad to me would be a harbinger of that option being deader than the Snyderverse…
Right, in the new league year… You can pick it up and still release them before the start of the new league year, right?
No!
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Yote you need to relax bud… What you’re doing isn’t cool. It’s condescending. Here’s a copy of the code of conduct. Please read it and follow it moving forward.
Personally I think Okudah is inconsistent and a boarderline CB2. I’m not opposed to bringing him back but I think we should seriously attack the off season with the intent to find his replacement. In fact we should be trying to find a CB1 and CB2 starter in my opinion. I feel CB is our weakest link and DT isn’t far behind.
In my opinion Okudah should be penciled in not inked in as a CB2.
In all honesty I’d like to see us add 2 starting level CB’s and a starting level NB. I’m not too fond of Will Harris at starting NB.
Keep in mind Yote you wanted to give AO a 5 year deal last offseason. I felt he wasn’t worth it. You strongly disagreed with that. I felt AO wasn’t a starter quality CB and you felt otherwise. Last year at this time you felt Parker, AO and Jacobs were the Long term answers for us at CB.
You felt the same way on Nevin Lawson. You felt he was a long term answer and wanted him extended. I did not… we debated that one pretty heavily.
Okudah has yet to show he’s worth a second contract. He’s inconsistent, and is coming off serious injury. We should be looking to replace him. That doesn’t mean he can’t improve or won’t turn the corner but I think the odds are against him…… it’s a big risk to count on him to be your starter…. with all that said I like Okudah as a person and a player. I just don’t think he’s a player we can or should count on.
You’re welcome to disagree if you like. Just like you did with AO. You’re entitled to your opinion. I just happen to disagree.
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Here is the big concern or risk concerning him. You pick it up and the Achilles is a real problem for him or he gets injured. Which seems like a high probability with him. That 11 mil is sitting on your cap as fully guaranteed money. His play doesn’t reflect that type of risk for me.
Achilles are a fickle injury. Many players try to come back from them and show flashes but ultimately retire a year or two down the road due to recurring issues.
I personally think the right course of action is to say no. If he beats the odds, improves as a player and becomes a FA next year. That’s a risk I am willing to take.
I’d rather do that than the alternative.
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Did they change the rule since Ebron?
“The Lions picked up the fifth-year option on Ebron’s contract after the season, a one-year deal that would have become guaranteed at 4 p.m. on Wednesday. The team reportedly continued to field offers throughout the week, but never found a taker. Now he’ll have an opportunity to explore free agency a year early, and should draw serious interest given his skill set and age.”
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Yes it changed in the 2022 CBA.
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Agree with this, voted no.
DB, DT two biggest area’s of need this offseason on the D side of the ball for me.
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I pointed to the fact that the option is just a small incremental raise above what he’s going to make in 2023. I’m not sure why that’s such a big deal. I think bringing him back on the option is smart business and is a completely different calculation than giving him a large extension to his contract.
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Well that explains it, thanks
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I think that is a good read for everyone who is curious. Below I have attached a visual representation from our good buddies at overthecap.com that shows the 2020 draft class and where they stand with their 5th year options. You can see how drastic of a change it is between some position groups. But its also notable how quickly a guys 5th year option can escalate based on reaching playing time and pro bowl incentives. Okudah is due the bare minimum BECAUSE he has struggled and missed time. His option could be over $18M with some more playing time and a couple of PB votes. So as weird as it sounds, you kind of want to root for our rivals to have their 1st round rookies get bogus votes into the pro bowl because it increases the 5th year option cost by so much.
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