Do You Draft #1 Position For Ceiling?

This will be an interesting draft, some team is going to draft AR15 for his ceiling. Same thing happened with Maholmes, he was drafted for his ceiling, not his play in college.
Is Brad a gambler? Does having a discussion on AR15 make me a Goff Hater? :innocent:

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And his floor is much, much, much lower.

I hope to heck that AR goes before our pick so AR is someone else’s bust.

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“It’s a lot easier to get worse at Quarterback than it is to get better”

–Brad Holmes–

…when asked by (Dave Birkett) on if he is considering drafting a QB at #6.

Straight from Brad Holmes mouth. LINK starting at 13:56 of the video

“all options are open at #6”…of course it is!! Why would Brad say otherwise publicly? This is leverage, this is what he is supposed to say leading up to the draft. It only hurts you when you publicly announce to the league that QB is off the table.

Goff is the guy! (to Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell)

Maybe Goff is not (your) guy…or his ceiling isn’t high enough in your eyes.

But everything coming out of Brad Holmes mouth…the DECISION MAKER…leads me to believe that Jared Goff is their guy.

Just look at the response he gives Birkett when asked the question. It seemed to annoy Brad. It is video and audio evidence…right in front of everyone’s eyes. Look and watch…absorb the photons of light coming off your screen…let your eardrums vibrate the sounds coming from the speakers.

It’s - all - right - there - in - front - of - you

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Goff can be the guy and you still draft a QB in the first as there are numerous factors that come into play. Salary cap, age, roster construction and more.

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I’m pretty open to Richardson in the top five, because it may well mean we get a shot at a Jalen Carter, but I’m also curious to know what happens if he drops to our pick.

We’ll get a good player at six, but barring a drop of Carter/Anderson… there’s a very good chance that the best combination of talent and positional value that is available to us is at quarterback.

We are fine at qb, but we aren’t elite. Do we buy the lottery ticket, if available, knowing you’re not getting a penei level prospect there anyway? From a purely spectator perspective, the top of this draft is going to be extremely interesting. I’m down with whatever. Corner is a need, but it’s pretty clear that nobody can even agree who the best corner in this draft is, which makes it hard to pick at six. Even odds that the best corner in this draft comes from outside the top ten.

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Having Goff be the guy and drafting a QB don’t have to be exclusive. Dude can sit for a couple years

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I mean Mahomes almost threw for 1000 yards in a single game against Oklahoma in college, he was plenty productive.

But you’re right he was seen as high risk, but that’s due to the janky offense they ran. No air raid QB had ever succeeded before him. He basically had to re-learn how to play QB in the NFL.

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BooM
My brother gets it!

Holmes is as much an “outside the box” thinker as there is too. I wouldn’t put it past him to pick a QB & trade that MF’r (likely to the Vikings for 3 future firsts)

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Amazingly this has never been discussed here before. How could we have possibly missed this topic?

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It’s a tough call. Do you believe you can coach up his footwork issues? Do you believe you can continue coaching him up playing the QB position(pocket presence, reading defenses, etc.)? If the answer is a confident “YES” then you have to go for it. However if you have a shred of doubt then I say no.

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you can’t miss early.

draft high floors early, high ceilings later.

unless you have a guy with both like Penei.

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Carter is the only guy near the top of the draft that I really think has a range of outcomes. If he were to really get in shape and motivated, doubtful but possible, he could be a total stud. More likely he is something lesser, hopefully something better than he’s giving in Georgia. Bryce Young, he’s super consistent and the size concerns are pretty much not important (he’s less likely to get injured than any of the running QBs for example). Will Anderson, pretty much know what I’m getting there. I think he’ll make a better OLB than DE.

Opinions on him are pretty varied. Are you saying he has a high ceiling, high floor, or both (at any position)

This is a really good one to discuss! I am obviously one of the main guys who says that Will Anderson isn’t what people think he is. HOWEVER, I can say that once you’ve watched the film and understand who the player actually is, he’s most likely going to be that guy. Its just about lowering the expectations instead of expecting Von Miller.

My production expectation is that he’s a solid 7 sack per year kind of a guy that can have some 12+ sack type seasons if he is schemed to the QB or runs into a few opponents who make mistakes on the line. I don’t see a player who is going to give you shit production and then all of a sudden blow up for his contract year. I think you are getting a guy who will give you what he’s got each time he takes the field.

Here is Dee Ford, just for conversation. Notice the shit production and sudden spikes during his year leading up to the option pickup and the bigger spike during his contract year.

I picture his career to be more like Leonard Floyd, if you bump up his sack production a little bit in the down years of Floyd’s career. So get the 3’s and 4’s closer to 7 and that’s how I see Anderson. I also feel like he’s going to give you a consistent starting edge that plays all or most of the games every year, whereas Dee Ford was all over the place (partially due to work ethic).

I am for drafting a backup qb eventually replacing Goff if he gets injured lets be honest our backup qb is not good. I like Goff and his numbers shined this yr.as the Starter though in this offense.

Richardson is too reminiscent of Andre Ware. Athletic “gunslinger” who didn’t transition to the next level. Hopeful the Lions pass, if he’s still on the board at 18, & address needs with selections that can bring immediate results.

Here’s a first. :rofl:

Your ultimate conclusion might be right. There is solid reasons to believe that Holmes likes Goff enough to ignore drafting his replacement.

However I would just say, if your belief is that he won’t give away his gameplan, then that view should extend to his statement about Goff as well . If Holmes doesn’t want to shut down the idea of drafting a QB for leverage, then he would also not want to announce that Goff is his man moving forward. To do the latter has the same effect as the former.

Myself, I put it the odds at like 35% we take a QB in the first round. But we’d have to love that QB. The whole point of taking Goff back in trade was giving us some breathing room as to what to do long term, and Goff has shown himself more than capable of playing smart football.

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Drafting AR would violate just about every rule Bill Parcells ever had about drafting QBs. Of course, Parcells didn’t exactly fair well drafting QBs so…

I would just say that high ceiling and high floor is what you want with a first rounder. You don’t want to miss on those. Some think Richardson has a low floor. I don’t know if I agree with that. I think he needs some developing. So if that is what they mean, then yes. He has a lower floor than a Bryce Young for sure. But I do think he is far more advanced than what some want to give him credit for in terms of reading defenses and progressions. I feel so many QBs fail because they can’t do this. Long term though I don’t think he as a low floor. I think long term his floor is quite high actually which is why he is projected to teams that can wait. He’s just so green. As another poster mentioned, he has nowhere near the reps of someone like Vince Young, and that is why I felt so strongly that the Lions were scouting him heavily because if he came out this year he wouldn’t have had a lot of reps to judge him by. Best to get some extra live looks at a boom or bust guy that is so green to see if what is going on is coachable or not.

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Leonard Floyd seems like a good mark to compare expectations. Solid, not spectacular. I see Anderson as a bit overrated, esp. if you are taking him with one of the first four picks.

But the whole top of this draft seems pretty weak.

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