I was in Camp Safe with Blake Miller, but The Athletic discussion and the father/son Team Tice are leading me astray. I think I’m crushing. Resistance is futile.
https://youtu.be/jpb5NWo5RUA?si=X0OD8MmBcqWB-H3A&t=3065
1 Like
Max’s upside is pretty obvious, but I think Miller’s “safe” reputation is a little inflexible too.
He has plenty of upside himself, we all saw the RAS and the length, he’s the prototype tackle, and while the core has to get strong, he’s still growing into his body. Last year was his first year over 300 pounds, and he got all the way up to 315. On top of that Clemson players often improve by leaps and bounds in the pros. They’re one of the worst staffs in college football when it comes to development.
Flip side, he could also wash out. He might be safe compared to quite a few of the other options in this draft, but I wouldn’t call him overly safe overall. Experienced, yes, but he’s got plenty of improving to do as well.
The main reason I have Miller over Max (by quite a bit, honestly) is that like I said, for all of Max’s preternatural improvement in areas that usually take guys a long time (he’s better than Miller in a couple of technical areas already), he doesn’t have the overall awareness of someone who’s played OL for a long time. Will he get it with more experience? Well, that’s the bet, and his improvement in other areas makes it an enticing bet to make. But he doesn’t have it yet, and when OL fail it’s often because they never get it. Just assuming he will when he’s shown very little sign of it - regardless of his specific circumstances - seems far too risky to me. At least at 17.
2 Likes
I think Miller is a what you see is what you get prospect. To his credit he added weight and did it in the weight room. With the long arms you don’t just throw up the reps that he did on the bench without a lot of work in the weight room. I just think he is maxed out, no pun intended. I think if Max has the same work ethic he can be a much better OT in 2 or 3 years. I also think his floor is a lot higher right now than what he gets credit for. People see what he can be and forget that over the last 2 years he has already been one of the best OTs in college football.
OK, but why?
His build. I think he is just too narrow in the hips. I think he has done an incredible job just to get where he is at today. I don’t think he will ever have the core strength of an elite OT in the NFL.I think that puts his ceiling at Decker instead of Sewell which is not bad.
The overarching theme with any first round OT for the Lions is will he whiff and get Goff killed. The pass protection is the strongest part of his game at the moment. Yes, defenses will overload and stunt him to death early on. That’s why Dave Helman snidely said, “Give me the $5M vet you don’t love…”, in relation to drafting Nacho.
That could apply to Lomu and Freeling too though.
That’s fair. I think Decker-esque is his most likely outcome, but I won’t limit his ceiling that way. Ryan Ramcyzk had the same knock - also very thin through the shoulders and hips - and I thought for a hot minute there he was the league’s best OT (and his arms were much shorter than Miller’s), before the injuries caught up to him. Garrett Bolles was the same way. Hell you can still see it in both of their profiles over on nfl.com. The first knock on both is skinny/narrow. Both guys, at their best, were a tier or more above Decker imo.
And of course Fano is even thinner than Miller through the shoulders/hips.
I think a good chunk of Miller’s upside comes from playing for Clemson, which is a sad but true state of affairs for the Tigers. They just don’t develop guys. I actually think it’s pretty promising that Miller has so many gains he can make just by sorting out his technique.
Which OT are you referring to?
The question there, then, is define “early on.” Because that’s what scares the shit out of me with him. Does early on mean a year? Two? Longer? Does he ever sort it out? (Some guys don’t). And we’re in a division with Flores, who now makes his career torturing OL who are even a millisecond late in figuring out what’s going on. He did it to Ratledge, who’s processing was a strength coming out of that draft. I shudder to think what he’ll do to Max.
Borom gives us some runway, admittedly, but I think it could take a lot longer than anyone thinks it will. (It really sucks that I’m the anti-Max guy now after being the one hyping him up since September. First name on my crush list, but I fear the pendulum has swung too far the other way).
1 Like
It kinda has tbh, but Max is a guy thats hard not to like ngl.
I think both can be good, but Miller prolly fits what we looking for now, rather then Max who is later.
2024 was was looking for more long term developmental options in general… and that backfired a bit. I think the Lions will like Both alot, but Miller (if Sewell is moving to LT) just feels like the better bet atm.
I was referring to Max, but the same is true for Freeling and Lomu, IMO.
I know. You’re like Lewis and Clark, and most of us boarded a plane to meet you at the Pacifica Ocean by April.
I’ve always riled at taking safe options, but Miller seemed prudent given the uncertainties I perceived with other likely options. So I’m intuitively leaping into the unknown with Nacho, largely on the enthusiasm of more trustable talking heads which I’ve recently linked. Drafting Nacho would be more fun as a fan too…at least through training camp.
I usually prefer the riskier ceiling option as well, but to me that would be more like a Freeling type in this instance. The one thing an OL must have to succeed in the league is awareness, and while there’s a very good excuse for why Max’s is well behind the curve, it doesn’t mean he will ever get there. That’s sort of a non-negotiable for me at OL, so I’m not willing to take the risk.
I also disagree with this categorization of Miller as the boring, safe option. He has a plenty high ceiling to me.
Finally, if there’s one spot I’m fine with just swinging for above-average, it’s T. If we take the next Decker, that will have been a big win.
3 Likes
I agree that Decker 2.0 is a big win.
OTOH, I’m the guy who has11 seatbelt tickets over a lifetime and I’m itching for #12. With 2 weeks left to waffle, I’m going for the big, big win and will b*tch about Manu 2.0 if necessary after scrubbing my Den history.
1 Like
Ha, yeah, obviously I’m fine shooting for the stars, as long as we land at the moon (Decker). And to me that describes Miller to a T. Max is shooting for the stars, but you might land way out in the ocean somewhere, sinking down into a trench.
1 Like
I think you are underestimating the player that Max is right now. You make it sound like he is Manu. He has started over 30 games for ASU and every game the last 2 years. That includes a deep run in the playoffs against the best in college football. He also showed well at the senior bowl often dominating the best prospects in this draft. He also more than held his own against Bailey and the Texas Tech edge rushers. It’s not that he is not a very good player now he just has a lot of upside where he can be even better. Outside of Mauigoa there aren’t many that can throw that kind of resume out there.
Hey, that was the argument I was making all fall FOR Max!
I know how well he’s played for sure, he definitely had the best game against Bailey, no question. And the really advanced technique (given how little time he’s been playing), the mano a mano stuff, that’s what’s intriguing. The ceiling is easy to see, and I can see it. Like I said, I was his biggest fan in here for most of the off-season.
That said, I didn’t think he had as good of a Senior Bowl week as everyone said. The one-on-ones were excellent, and the game itself was pretty good. But he had some serious struggles in the team sessions, especially during the blitz pickup sessions, which is exactly where you’d expect him to struggle.
I know he’s not Manu, but just playing every game at ASU the past 2 years doesn’t mean he’s ready. There’s a long list of guys in this draft who’ve played more in the SEC and Big 10 and aren’t ready, which is evident by their draft range. Barber, Davis, Pounds, on and on. There are plenty of experienced guys who have issues keeping them from going high, and for me, for Max, it’s his awareness. He gets lost. He’s a step late and an arm short. He lets in free rushers. He lunges.
He just doesn’t have that sixth sense that guys who’ve been playing longer have developed. There’s good reason for that and he might get there. Will he? That’s certainly possible. Jordan Mailata did it, along with a few others. But Max hasn’t done it yet.
I still have the guy ranked 29th overall, so obviously I like him. I just think the risk is FAR higher than others seem to. It’s odd to always be stuck arguing against him on here, when elsewhere I’m the “pro-Max” guy. But there are just a few of you who are inordinately high on him imo.
1 Like
Ty simpson at the draft 