Right now most of us are rightfully on the FIRE AG train, and frankly the results thus far would justify it… It is almost mathematically impossible to have the highest scoring offense in the NFL (2nd highest in HISTORY) through 4 games, and be 1-3… That said the blame doesn’t start, nor end with AG-
Holmes- look what Jacksonville has done in the last 2 years…
added DT/Fatukasi, DE:DT/Harris-Robertson, LB/Oluokun, CB/S Griffin, and S/R Jenkins via free agency… They cost 10M, 9M, 15M, 13M, and 9M respectively in APY…
The Jags have been our top 10 draft buddies the last few years… and also made some trades to gain extra draft capital and start their rebuild… So they have spent 56MM APY for 5 proven starters that are STARTING… and they spent “2 firsts… 1 second… and 2 thirds” on players that are STARTING- meaning they have built at top 10 defense in 2 years with ONLY Edge- Josh Allen still on the team…
------- BEFORE ANYONE ASSERTS IT’S BECAUSE OF A CHEAP ROOKIE QB, ITS NOT! SIMPLY COMPARE WHERE AND HOW THE RESOURCES WE SPENT!
Holmes- look at what the Lions have done the past 2 years on D…
added Edge/Okawara, FS/Walker, Edge/C Harris, DT/Brockers, LB/Analzone via UFA(trade)… They cost- 13M, 8.5M, 7.5M, 8M, 2.5M, respectively (roughly) respectively in APY
added Levi O/2nd, McNeill/3rd, Iffy/3rd, Hutch/1st, Paschal/2nd, and K Joseph 3rd…
So Holmes has spent 40M on FAs and draft capital of “1 first, 2 seconds, and 3 thirds” …Okudah and AO were our holdover contracts (like Josh Allen was for Jags)
So when you compare resources we have spent 13M less APY on free agents and we have spent 1 less 1st… one more 2nd… and one more 3rd on the D than the Jags have over the past 2 years…
At some point we have to spot paying guys to kind of be the solution… Elliott, Board, Anzalone, Big V( not Holmes), Hughes, C Harris, etc are being paid to come here and start, but they weren’t starting level players at their previous team… so trying to build a Championship team around decent teams backups isn’t a great plan?
We NEED to figure out how to play some salary cap games this coming offseason (maybe a little now) in order to maximize the window with this offense… PERIOD!
I was of the camp that determining if Goff can be the guy was priority #1 for me. That required a lot of investment in the O. But we really need some of these day 2 defenders to start coming around. Hutch as well.
Charles Harris, Hutch and Alim need to play much, much better if we’re going to be less terrible. El Jefe needs to play better than yesterday as well.
DC- he was smart enough to come in and assemble a bunch of passionate former players to win back the locker room and change the culture… IT WORKED! He was smart enough to go against the grain of 3 wide sets and spread offenses, but not smart enough to realize that the trend applies to defenses too…
It’s not just us- the whole league is starting to go more TEs and running the ball more- there are 16 guys on pace for around 1,100 yards rushing after just 5 last year… There are a 25 guys on pace for 8 plus rushing TDs…only 14 did that last year…
DC- when we have a 3rd round DT who should play around 310 tops, and an UDFA who was 295 just 2 years ago- and that is our BEEF/GIRTH and talent in the middle- that’s NO BUENO SIR!
DC- when we line up a 265 pound rookie edge, and a 250 pound rush Edge LB as 4-3 DE’s it’s not a coincidence they are getting buried and washed out…
LT- 315 LG - 315 C- 310 RG- 315 RT- 320 TE- 260
Harris- 250 McNeill- 315 Buggs- 300 Hutch- 265
AA- 235 Rodrigo- 230
That is the weight disparity every time we line up right now… That doesn’t even factor QBs who can run at 225 pounds and RBs are 230…
It’s time to recognize that trying to spot spread attacks is pointless as most teams are quickly deviating away from spread attacks… When there at 10 TEs in the top 30 for receiving TDs… and 3 in the top 23 for receiving yards by TEs- it’s indication of a shift in offensive personnel…
Let’s get some big bodies on the field and if we lose on skill, then fine, but lets not lose because the other team is bulldozing us…
Buggs- 305 McNeill- 315 Brockers- 300
Hutch- 265 M Rod - 230 Board- 240 C Harris- 250
Lets just “TRY” and see if that works given the speed M Rod and Board both have and boards ability to cover
Glenn- I like the guy, the passion, and think he can be a really good DC, and maybe one day a HC… I think the league caught up quick to the “old is new” approach to big TEs and power running games…
It’s unfortunate the we don’t have access to Levi, Commish, Romeo, or Paschal to see how things “should look,” but even then I hate the scheme…
Let’s say we put- Hutch Levi McNeill Paschal - out there next week all 100% healthy- we are still pretty light on the DL- and both light and not very talented at LB…
Doing so would leave Okwara, C Harris, Bryant, Okwara, Commish, all on the bench? Sure they would get rotations snaps… but we have 3-5 solid stand up Edge guys when all healthy, but they are mostly on the smaller and quicker side- so lining them up directly opposite of the OTs- is a recipe for dipping shoulder and being shoved inside, or pushed out wide and creating an off- tackle gap…
When you gameplan isn’t working- it’s time to quickly change the game plan… We can’t attack because teams are leaving in more protection and standing up our edge guys, and the extra time equates to big plays downfield, or check downs where we fail to match up size- wise
Hutch- SLOW DOWN! Running 150% for the first 15 snaps and then panting with hands on hips for 3 quarters is already old… You can’t overpower NFL OT’s that outweigh you by 55 pounds… You can’t spin, rip, and slash inside to try and get a TFL on every play… For every no gain tackle you get, you are allowing 2 easy dumps to TEs or RBs, and at least 1 big run on a cut back to the spot you are supposed to be!!! STOP IT!
I know you want to prove you are THE GUY, and be the hometown here, and you still CAN BE- take the boring approach where you set your edge, man you spot, handle your gap as close to perfectly as possible, and be a leader… your natural talent will allow you to win a handful of times per game, choose WISELY- don’t just sell out til you are exhausted young man!
I expect 8-10 sacks and 12-15 TFL this year… I also expect that you are woefully out of position 50% of the time trying to get an extra 3-4 sacks that you aren’t likely to get anyway!
So in the 2 years we have spent roughly 31MM in APY free agent contracts and extension to help Goff/QB- and we spent 31MM a year on said QB…
If you take Goff who is getting close to middle of the road QB pay out of it… We spent about 31MM on new cap signings and extensions on offense and then of course the 2 first rounders… It’s hard to say spending a 4th rounder on ASB was really using an “asset” we just caught lighting in a bottle…
Hutch’s pass rush win rate is 10%. Thibodeaux’s is 11% so far. Hutch has more sacks and QB hits, though, and right now he is on pace for more QB hits than Joey Bosa had his first season. He just needs to get stronger and improve his repertoire. I posted an analysis before the draft that said Hutch only really has one move he uses to win against DL.
Sewell vs Hutch - both firsts
Ragnow vs Okwara- both 13M apy
ASB vs Barnes- both 4ths
Chark vs C Harris- pretty similar investment
Jamo vs Levi and Paschal- 1st vs TWO 2nds…
J Will and Reynolds vs Brockers- both cost about 8M
we also spent an additional “THREE 3rd rounders” on the D…
The good news is that it shouldn’t be that hard to fix…
I expect to have Commish and Paschal back within 2-3 weeks tops… I hope
It’s not that… he’s being set up to fail, and when you combine that with the expectations of being the #2 overall… it’s why he’s being talked about already…
GB is lining up Lowry, Clark, and J Reed (280, 320, and 310) along the DL with rookie D Wyatt waiting in the wings to make them BIGGER…
GB then has Preston Smith- 265, D Campbell- 232 , Q Walker- 240, and R Gary- 275 lined up as the edge back group…
I’d love to see Commish/Paschal in the Lowry spot… McNeill in the Clark spot… Buggs or Levi O in the Reed/Wyatt spots…
Then I’d love to see Harris/Bryant in the P Smith spot… Hutch/Romeo in the R Gary spot… and Rodrigo and Board (puke) in the Campbell and Walker spots…
Suddenly if you add Daron Payne and N Sewell next year our front 7 seems fairly comparable… then add a CB and S with our late 1st and 2nd rounders and suddenly our D as a whole looks comparable…
The real problem is that it’s not 1-1 based on the BUNK ASS SCHEME!
Imagine “OUR D” trying to play “OUR O” for sec…
A) Decker takes on Charles Harris and has 60 plus pounds on him… Not standing up and picking a gap- literally with a hand in the dirt and within arms reach
B) Skipper and Ragnow decide to double team McNeill- and turn him around and push him back 2-3 yards… About a 300 pound weight advantage…
C) Sternberg/E Brown decide to take on the outside shoulder of I Buggs and take him inside with his own momentum…
D) Sewell and Hock are lined up across from our “raging boner rookie Hutch” and either Sewell (has 50 pound advantage) simply shoves him inside and opens an off-tackle hole for Hock to lead block… or … Hock chips and releases wide open
Part of the problem though is that quarterbacks are hitting that back foot and getting the ball out. The rush doesn’t have time to get there a lot of the time because the secondary has been awful. Especially AO. I wouldn’t have put him on Lockett yesterday. He struggles with shifty receivers. I think he’d have been a better matchup with DK. Okudah showed he could stay with a Lockett type receiver.
I sure hope he gets healthy and shows us something! He was a beast at Kentucky. Like my father said yesterday, “It sure is hard to improve when you are getting nothing out of your top draft picks” - He’s right. He was referring to Levi, Iffy, Paschal and Jamo. All of them picked in the 1st 3 rounds. Sure hope those guys get their bodies right to play in the future.
Well because he was drafted hurt in the 2nd rd and he can’t get on the field. Just a bad pic you take chances on guys like this in later RDs.
Maybe he turns out better then Levi. But that’s not saying much. And coming back now how much help can he be with no practice or a off-season.
