Fanduel odds for the 2nd overall pick

Brett farve (the qB Aaron rodgers sat behind for 3 years). And you’re doing it again. Making up the point that if you draft a QB you MUST start him right away. Says who? Are there any other draft commandments we should know about lord?

Malik willis would absolutely benefit from sitting a year. It seems like literally every poster, pundit, and scout agrees with this and is vocal about it. Why he contrarian?

Considering that Jax spent the #1 OA pick on a QB last year… it wouldn’t be in the best interest for Vegas to give Willis good odds to be the #1 OA this year.

They would kind of lose money… which is not really their “thing”… if ya know what I mean.

I’m also of the belief that a rookie QB needs to play, but it’s not specific to Willis, it’s how I feel about any QB we would draft. The reasons for that are:

  1. The biggest advantage in football is to have a good QB on a rookie contract. If you take Willis and sit him a year, you’re wasting one of those years (still paying Goff). Then when he does play you need him to be great right away because the clock is already ticking.

  2. You need as much information as possible before you give him a second contract. It’s like, if the Packers had lost Rodgers, they’d have to decide after only a year whether they wanted to pick up Love’s 5th year option or extend him. That’s not enough time to know.

  3. I think that if a QB is a good player, he will be able to overcome whatever struggles he has as a rookie and in fact, be better for it. I just don’t believe this narrative that QBs can get “ruined” by starting as rookies, no matter how much they struggle. I think those QBs weren’t gonna end up being any good anyway.

  4. Any player at any position needs more live reps to improve.

There’s only one scenario where I believe sitting a rookie QB is acceptable: if you’ve got a playoff ready roster with a decent veteran QB and you believe the rookie QB can step in year 2 and be successful right away. This was the case with Mahomes, and I believe it will be the case with Lance too. But there are very few teams in this position when they draft a rookie QB. Certainly that’s not us.

Malik Willis would benefit from getting taken in the 4th or 5th round like other QBs that were complete projects with no business going in the first round. But I’m just waiting to see what team pulls the Kyle Boller. I’m assuming it’s not us. I was told these guys were different.

Why start a kid who most everyone says is not ready?

Screw the contract stuff. If you’re drafting the kid (especially at 2OA) because you feel he can be your franchise QB, THAT should be your focus as the staff - getting him to be your franchise QB. If he has a 15yr career, will it really matter if he sat his first year to help him adjust and learn?

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Kyle Boller completed 47.8% of his passes in college. Willis was at 62.8%….

and Boller ran a 4.65 in the 40…. while Willis was clocked 20.58mph at the Senior Bowl.

Seems like a good comp though…. :lying_face::thinking::neutral_face::grimacing:

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He really sucks at playing QB though. 2 passes for 11 yards in the almost football game known as the Senior Bowl. Yep, speaks to greatness. Hey, he beat Eastern Michigan though. Greatness…

For all of those reasons I stated.

This is clearly where we disagree. I won’t screw the contract stuff, because it’s exactly what allows us to build a better roster around him which directly affects abilities to win Super Bowls.

The Seahawks were never as good after they had to pay Russ. They had a stacked roster for awhile and had to let them all go once Russ’s rookie contract was over. The Chiefs have had to start letting guys go, the Bills will too very soon. Obviously you pay those guys and will be a playoff contender every year, but your best Super Bowl window comes when they’re on rookie contracts. Once you pay them your margin for error has essentially vanished.

If we don’t win at least one Super Bowl over that time frame, it’ll matter to me.

Win Superbowls? With a kid who can’t read defenses? Give me a break.

He needs to sit where ever he goes. Especially if he gets drafted by Detroit. There is zero reason to start him over Goff. Zero, zip, nada.

In fairness, Daniel Jones had the fastest mph run of any QB back in 2020 (on that long run where he fell down, 21.23 mph) and he ran a 4.81. Sometimes they don’t correlate.

It’s my opinion not a fact.
LOL.
but carryon.

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Well I agree that he can’t read defenses, which is why I wouldn’t draft him at all. I don’t think he’ll be able to read them in year 5 let alone year 1. I really don’t want us to draft him.

But if we do, he’s be starting very quickly in his rookie year for me.

Try watching the actual game or even just reading the thread on this board about the Senior Bowl. You’ll see that he was actually one of the few bright spots of that whole team.

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You have to look at every situation individually. There’s no realistic way you can type the first part of that but then type the second. You’re setting the kid up to fail solely based upon a generalization you feel you must adhere to. That he must start to take advantage of that rookie deal,

How do you gain anything from using that time if you are slowing his overall progress by playing him? You’re literally doing the one thing everyone thinks will slow his growth down…

How does that take advantage of his cheap contract years? How?

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One thing to consider in this particular instance, leaving Goff as your starter this year with a much better team around him gives you a much better chance to get the best value possible out of a trade involving Goff in 2023.

You don’t make that move if you believe it is a detriment to Willis, but I believe Willis would also benefit from sitting out at least most of the year.

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Yes, those were the most awesome 11 yards ever. I stand corrected.

I don’t want us to draft Willis because I don’t think he’ll come anywhere near his ceiling. If somehow I came to the decision to then draft him, it would have meant I’ve reversed that opinion and would thus start him.

It’s not about struggles in that vain. It’s about his struggles to read defenses. To be able to play his position effectively.

If you know you are stunting his growth by playing him, how does it make sense to play him?

You are costing yourself time on that rookie contract by slowing his development. How do you take advantage of the cheap years if you tack on more years for him to get to the same point by playing him?

Using numeric values…

He is a 5 when drafted.
You play him, he becomes a 6. He plays the second year he becomes a 7 after that season.
You sit him that year, he becomes a 7 after that first season.

You’ve lost a year of the cheap contract getting him to the same place.

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When you know and freely admit if the exact same player was drafted in the third or fourth round you’d gladly sit him to let him learn like he should, you being bound by the draft position and not what your football instinct and acumen are telling you needs to happen for the overall betterment of the player and team.

The Lions have a starting caliber QB on the roster. They are in a perfect position to sit a player and let him learn and work on his deficiencies.

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I’m not sure I follow the logic. It sounds like you’re describing some kind of entry level contract slide like they have in the NHL. Where if you don’t play a guy in his first year that entry level contract slides instead of vanishes. But I’m not aware of anything like that in the NFL.