Risers? Fallers? Whose is your favorites? Who will underperform this year? Who are you going against the grain on?
I’ve been thinking on whether to buy or sell on the Bears and Lions offensive players with all the changes. Not sure how I feel yet.
I’ve been in on Jamo pretty heavily, though his price is starting to rise into a range where I won’t get him nearly as often. I hammered Gibbs whenever he was available to me at 5 or 6, which early on was a lot, and I have some LaPorta since he often falls way too far. I’ve been avoiding Goff, ARSB and Monty at their costs more or less. Oh, and in leagues that start defenses I intend to target ours as well.
The Bears are so cheap I’ve ended up with quite a bit. Especially Odunze. But Loveland is a steal too, and DJ Moore and Caleb are decent values, if Ben gets the most out of them. I have zero Swift but a lot of Monangai late.
Currently my most rostered players are Jamo, Rhamondre Stevenson, Odunze, Amari Cooper (cause he’s free), Maye, Jayden Reed, Deebo, Garrett Wilson, Kraft, Jordan Mason, Pitts, Bigsby, Braelan Allen, Purdy, Davante Adams, and Hampton, though that was back when I could regularly get him in the 5th/6th, not the 3rd like he is now.
Of the top guys that are more difficult to hoard, I’m higher than ADP on Bowers, Jeanty, Puka, Gibbs, Achane, Nico, Chase Brown, Jonathan Taylor, Ken Walker, Ridley, Chuba, RJ Harvey, Pickens, Tet McMillan, Lawrence, McCarthy, and Downs.
I’m generally fading Kyren, Mike Evans, Mixon, Kittle, McLaurin, Mayfield, Hunter, Diggs, Olave, Kaleb Johnson, Godwin, Hockenson, Golden, Nix, Aiyuk, Kyler, Swift, Jeudy, Warren, Njoku, among others. Probably ARSB too, but only by 3 or 4 spots.
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My advice draft guys with a history of good durability. I don’t play any fantasy sports anymore but drafting RB’s like CMAC early will have you pulling out your hair in no time.
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I agree with the bolded above. Of the non-bolded, most of our difference in point of view falls more to how the drafts fall. I tend to like Hunter more based on who is available around him. I do like Diggs this year; I think he is ready for a solid bounce-back and I think the Pats O goes from bad to average this year.
ARSB is a great floor play. You know what you are getting, and it is good. I just think Jamo eats in a little this year and the ceiling is a little low for where he is going. I agree that Jamo is ready to make noise. He is in that late 4 / early 5 area and ends up in my WR2 slot with regularity. But he is the same range as Monty and Laporta, so I have not been drafting them.
I think Loveland is the only Bear that I have been drafting. Someone in addition to him is going to score some fantasy points, but I am wondering if they actually end up like the Green Bay WR room and all of them end up killing each other’s ceilings.
I really like the Dallas stack this year (Lamb, Pickens, Dak, Ferguson) while completely avoiding their RB room. I can hate the Cowboys, but I believe they are going to be passing a ton this year, and I can’t see much going beyond the above.
I’m going to pick at 8 in a 10 man league, and I’ve been consistently getting Derrick Henry on Yahoo. Last year, I made the complete mistake of avoiding RB all together until it was too late. I’m not really sure why I did that either. I overdrafted on Mahomes and Kelce, and Tyreek was a bust at 4OA.
This year I’m taking as many consistent RBs as I can. I’m going to try and get good value on some guys that I remember being really solid last season. Kyren Williams, James Conner, Mixon, etc.
I’m considering Jayden Daniels in the 3rd, but this needs to be the year I wait to take a QB. I always draft a QB too early.
Plus, there’s this one kid in our league that takes a QB in the 1st round every year, and always ends up with like 4 QBs on his team after the draft. He knows basically nothing about football, but he’s a Washington fan, so he’ll probably take Daniels round 1. Of course, his team is always somehow good, making no sense to anybody.
St. Brown is the 8th ranked player on Yahoo, and I had him last year, but I’m going RB with my first pick no matter what this season.
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Got Jamo in every league, I think he is great value were he is going, also like the bears TE Loveland goes way late I think Ben will get him going and Williams is gonna love him .
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Debating if I should keep Jamo and lose my 8th round pick.
Or keep Gibbs again and lose my 1st.
I don’t know my draft slot yet
Wouldn’t mind having Gibbs for the next 5+ years
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How many leagues do you play in?
Hard to pass on Gibby, you should have a good chance to get Jamo, in rds 3 thru 5 at times. And I love him as my #2 wr , I’ve been going RB in the first or St. Brown depending on my spot. Then #1 wr then I get Jamo as my #2 witch I think is great.
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Keep Jamo and lose your 8th round pick. That one is easy.
Short of getting a top 3 or 4 pick, you should keep Gibby. Chase and Bijan seem 1&2 and I agree with that. Then it gets to where you rate Gibby vs Barkley, Lamb, and Jefferson. I have Gibby even with Barkley and ahead of Lamb and Jefferson, but not by much. I have Barkley taking the traditional step backwards after major usage in the previous year. I have Gibby ahead of Lamb and Jefferson based mostly on positional value. But I like all of the above options.
I totally agree that Jamo as WR 2 on the team is a great position to be in.
All reports on Jamo are pointing in the right direction for sure.
With the Bears, I think Luther Burden could be a darkhorse on that team.
I feel like it might be time to draft a running back from the Chargers, Harbaugh looks like he is gearing up to run over people the way he’s drafted, then added Becton to pair with Alt. I’m with you there on Hampton.
With Tampa and the Jags its similar to the Lions/Bears in that…things could change with Coen leaving/HC for Jags. The WR cores for both teams are impressive with the Jags on the rise and Tampa adding Egbuka.
One guy that is sooo under the radar is Adonai Mitchell. I’m not drafting him, but if this dude ever puts it together he’s gonna be a handful.
My other inkling is that Xavier Worthy might have a monster year.
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I did this same thing last year with WRs. The way the draft fell I horded value RBs early, then everybody else took WR after WR so early that I was left holding the bag trying to fill out my roster.
Well so far it’s been nothing but best ball, which is just draft then forget it. You can enter those for as low as a dollar, so I’ve basically got 4 or 5 slow drafts (8 hours per pick) going on at all times. I start in May after the draft and so far I think I’ve finished around 35? Something like that?
Yes I am a degenerate.
As far as active leagues that I pay attention to throughout the year, I try and limit myself to 4 or 5, including our college football one. And they’re all different formats. I have my main that’s been gonig since 1989, a promotion-relegation keeper league that’s fun as hell (I got relegated this year so I’ll be drafting from the scrap heap), an elimination league where the lowest score every week is eliminated (which is also best ball actually, so no lineup or add/drop concerns), and a final one where the top 6 get to re-draft during the playoffs. Plus a couple of survival pools and a confidence pool.
Man, it’s worse than I thought.
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I got a decent amount of Hunter early on but have decided the Jags do intend to use him both ways pretty heavily, and have just decided not to bet on an outlier at that cost. I love his talent - he was easily my top WR in the draft - but I’m not in love with the situation, even though I’m pretty high on the Jags offense. Most of my investment has been on Lawrence and Brenton Strange thus far, though I have quite a bit of Bigsby too since he’s so cheap.
I love the Pats as well, Maye is one of my most-owned QBs and I have plenty of Kyle Williams, Pop Douglas and a ton of Rhamondre (been fading TreVeyon too mostly due to his cost + injury issues). I just don’t trust older WRs coming off torn ACLs. Diggs was already starting to fade a little before the injury.
Yeah I’m certainly not anti-ARSB or anything, I just have him a few spots lower than his ADP and it has led to me not getting much of him. I think I have him ranked 14th? In full-PPR though he’d be a couple of spots higher.
I’m with you on that - though of course getting Lamb in it isn’t easy. But have plenty of Dak/Pickens/Ferguson. I have a little Jayden Blue too in full PPR.
Yeah it’s tricky to figure out what his role will end up being. He basically got hurt during the first practice of OTAs and is only just now getting back (I think). He’s behind the 8-ball as far as scheme, etc… Ben’s also ben somewhat tyrannical calling players out left and right and the one thing he didn’t take with him to Chicago was the love of football mandate, which was a concern with Burden pre-draft. With Loveland it wasn’t, and from all reports he’s been great.
I got A LOT of Hampton early on but man since Najee blew his face up with a firework his ADP has gotten out of control. Just saw him go at the end of the 2nd in my latest draft. End of the 3rd and I’m good with it but he’s just getting a little too rich. The move is probably to pivot to Najee, but man he’s just so jaggy. And his main issue was already his vision, is he really gonna get any better with just one eye?
The Tampa WR corps is just really hard to sort out. Everyone seems to have just forgotten about Jalen McMillan too, who was going off late last year. I have a little Godwin when he’s fallen, and some McMillan late, but otherwise I’m pretty light. I just think most are priced near their ceilings. Much more fond of the Jags at their prices, though again that tends to be Lawrence and Strange.
I have some Mitchell cause he’s basically free, but he’s tied to AR actually being able to throw the ball, which imo hurts all of Indy’s receivers. Apparently looking better in camp though, so we’ll see.
Ever since the Rashee news and probably suspension, Worthy has been priced like he’s gonna have a huge year. Regularly goes in the 3rd round on Draftkings, though it’s full point PPR and the WRs tend to go earlier. Still a bit rich for my blood, though I DO have some exposure from when he was cheaper. Hollywood Brown is also basically free so I have some of him too.
Jesus, that’s an understatement.
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The beauty is you can find them so cheap I’m really only in for like $150 thus far. I spend that much on dinner sometimes. So at least I’m not betting the house or anything.
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I think the Jags are also in for an Offensive improvement like the Pats. I do believe Hunter will be used both ways, but I believe he will not be on the field for “most” running plays and be in the slot when it counts. I think he is used on defense much the same way. I find myself liking Lawrence at his cost and Strange is a steal. I have avoided their backfield because I have no clue, but I fear the 3 headed monster. But Bigsby is priced right for the flyer.
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If Hunter was going in the 8/9th, something like that, I’d find value there. But he started the offseason going in the 5th and is really only down to the 6th or so. Still far too many guys I like in that range (Ridley, Odunze, Deebo, RJ Harvey) to take Hunter over them.
A couple guys that I’m pretty interested if they fall far enough (meaning late):
Marvin Mims - always been a fan. Seems Sean has warmed up to him. In my main league we get a moderate bump for return yards so a fair amount to like here. I’m in a 12 team 3 year keeper league so the majority of guys highlighted on here will get kept.
Justin Fields - I think he’s going to have a big rushing season. I think as the weather turns in the meadowlands they just let him play like a young Randall Cunningham in the pass game and rip the ball down the field. I’m not sure how good of a real QB he’ll be but I think he’ll finish as a top 8 or so QB which works for me giving his draft position.
Zach Charbonnet - don’t even love the player but I think Walker is getting a good bit of helium with folks hoping that he stays healthy. I’ll take the flip side of that bet knowing that with the amount they want to run the ball that they’re will be some utility here even if the handcuff upside bet doesn’t pay off via a Kenneth Walker injury.
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