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Highly drafted quarterbacks rarely transform bad franchises
Posted by Michael David Smith on December 26, 2020, 6:30 AM EST
Those who think the Jets killed the future of their franchise by winning on Sunday and giving the Jaguars the lead in the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes may want to look at how great teams are built. It’s hardly ever by losing enough to earn the first overall pick, and using that pick on a franchise quarterback.
In fact, of the NFL’s eight current division leaders, none drafted their quarterback first overall. None even drafted their quarterback in the Top 5.
Four current division leaders used a first-round pick on a quarterback, but none followed the “tanking” model to get him: The Chiefs were a playoff when they traded up to draft Patrick Mahomes. The Bills were a playoff team when they traded up to draft Josh Allen. The Packers were a playoff team when they drafted Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers were a 6-10 team but had been in the playoffs the two years before that when they drafted Ben Roethlisberger No. 11 overall.
The other four division leaders did not draft their starting quarterback in the first round: The Seahawks drafted Russell Wilson in the third round. The Saints signed Drew Brees as a free agent. Washington traded for Alex Smith after the Chiefs decided to move on from him. The Titans traded for Ryan Tannehill after the Dolphins decided to move on from him.
But while the NFL’s best teams didn’t get their quarterbacks at the top of the draft, what about the teams that do have a Top 5 draft pick quarterback? Some of them may make the playoffs this year, but overall the results are more bad than good: The teams that have a quarterback picked in the Top 5 on their roster (the Browns, Dolphins, Bengals, Jets, Rams, Cardinals, Bears, Lions, Eagles and Falcons) have a combined record of 60-78-2 this season.
Bad franchises are often bad for reasons that no one player can change, and sometimes quarterbacks who look like great prospects either languish on bad teams or prove not to be so great. There’s no guarantee that Lawrence can transform a franchise.
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5 responses to “Highly drafted quarterbacks rarely transform bad franchises”
- xofdallas says:
Truer words have never been spoken. Bad teams tend to have bad o-lines and a mediocre receiving corps. Most of them lack continuity in front office management and/or coaching staffs, leading to lack of continuity in plays and play-calling. And what does it matter that a quarterback can routinely post 20 points in a game if the defense routinely gives up 30?
Other things enter into it. Is the quarterback getting good coaching? Is the o-line so porous that all a novice quarterback is going to learn is bad habits? Or face severe, chronic or nagging injury?
If the coach and gm have a chance (depends on ownership), I’d build the o-line and receiving corps, as well as the defense, and then go after a good qb, either by draft-and-learn for a bit or by trade. Some quarterbacks seem to be able to come up to speed quickly these days, but most (including Mahomes, Brady and Rodgers) learned a lot from the bench.
There are no quick fixes, and owners who think differently seem to help mire their teams in mediocrity for years, if not decades.
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- dabears70 says:
All you have to do is look at the Cleveland Browns for the last 15 plus years. Always picking very high, and taking QBs that never worked out until Mayfield came along.
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- ebpatton says:
Andrew Luck was a “can’t-miss” prospect. Then no offensive line happened. No guarantees it will work out for Trevor in New York OR Jacksonville, dysfunctional franchises both.
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- mjposner says:
But Eagles won SB after drafting Carson Wentz, and the Rams made the SB after drafting Jared Goff. A top pick can take you there, but does not guarantee long term success.
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- arcross12042004scorp15 says:
The Bills took a lot of heat for trading the draft pick KC used to get Patrick Mahomes. If you follow the draft picks they received they used them to draft Pro Bowl CB Tre White, Pro Bowl LB Treamaine Edmunds, LT Dion Dawkins and used draft capital to get Josh Allen. Mahomes is a great player, but the trade worked out well for both teams.
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