JD9 thank you for being another logical person here.
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Yes dude, illogical. Are you Matt Millen in disguise?..lol (i’m kidding).
I never said strictly, nothing’s black or white. It’s BPA at high-value spot at a position of some level of need. But that need doesn’t have to be immediate. I mean everyone who wants to take Bijan is wanting BPA. We have a legitimate NFL starting RB. Two of them this year. Taking a RB would be worse than WR or EDGE.
But passing on talent for need just isn’t done, show me an example. I can show you lots and lots of examples of the opposite happening (I already have). You can’t force a guy to be available at the spot you need the most.
Now if you have them graded roughly the same, sure, take the bigger need. But that’s not a reach.
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That’s why I’ve been pounding the table for Robinson.
Immediate impact player, who will get better next year.
Look, I wish with all my heart that Swift was that guy, but, we all know that can’t be counted on.
Montgomery would be a backup to Bijan.
When you have a serious threat at RB consistently, the whole offense benefits.
Everyone is always looking for flash. There it is! The biggest flash in this draft!
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You can literally pinpoint 1/2 the 1st round picks because teams definitely take need into consideration. Now you might not get the players right, but you have a really good idea what position teams are targeting.
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right… otherwise why have mock drafts
I think you folks struggling to grasp BPA need to look at it the way Rick Spielman and even Bob Quinn described it: they align their players horizontally in tiers.
Brad calls tiers “buckets”.
If you have 3 players in the top tier, they’re not 1-3, they are just 3 in the top tier.
Once you start seeing players fitting in tiers, you’ll stop struggling with the concept of BPA.
Never step down a tier to address a need when your staff has vetted the players an assigned them according to your scheme and valuation.
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Exactly.
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This is basically what everyone in this thread is saying lol. What is the debate even here?
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And if that player in that higher tier is a WR? That’s how the debate started.
Jamo was drafted for '23. Clearly stated. The only reason why they played him was to get his feet wet. They even considered gunner.
So here’s what we should do. Lets draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 6 because WR could be considered BPA, and in case our 12th overall WR pick doesn’t work out even though he hasn’t had a chance. Then at 18 let’s draft Zay Flowers in case JSN doesn’t work out. And because Flowers is BPA. Then let’s hope Jordan Addison falls to the 2nd in case Flowers doesn’t work out, and Addison is surely BPA. Then sign a WR for 10mil on a prove it deal in case none of them work out.
This is the way.
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Go back to Holmes’s presser a couple weeks ago. You seem to be mistaken on when they expected production from him.
This is rubbish. Even if you read it posted here, it’s no reason to draft this year. You don’t draft assuming your picks failed. You draft assuming they were successful until proven wrong as in Levi’s case.
I would never put JSN in a bucket that lands him with the Lions at 6, but if the Lions do and he is the only guy left in that bucket, then he should be the pick
BPA was not coined by Martin Mayhew. I’ve known about if for 30 years and only because that’s how long I’ve been paying attention. Sure there is some nuance to the need/value equation, but your value tiers will be somewhat dependent on need anyway.
The Lions would be foolish to draft Peter Skoronski at 6 even if he is their highest rated player, because at best they would be drafting him as a guard and he’s already said he won’t play there. Even if he did, positional value of guard is much lower and Skoronski isn’t such a great talent that he could ever be BPA at that position at the spot in the draft.
Tavai was an example of a team ignoring BPA and drafting for need. Value has to be driving the equation, and positional value has to be factored in.
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Jamo showed just how explosive he can be in extremely limited opportunity. He’s going to be a starter…on no planet is this guy going to be bust. The only way that happens is if he just can’t stay healthy for whatever reason.
Yeah he might not be 100 catch 1,500 yard type, but doesn’t need to be. If he caught 60 passes for 900 yards and 7tds is anyone going to be pissed? That’s probably his floor if he plays 15 games.
And if those numbers do piss people off that is hilarious. DJ Chark was basically the goat last season for putting up half that.
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TE is a low priority position and should never be drafted in the top 10 picks.
I agree with a lot of this, except the part where you say your value the tiers will be somewhat dependent on need. Your tiers should have no influence on need, your tiers should be strictly talent based.
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I personally agree that he shouldn’t bust, but I can’t say it as an absolute. He hasn’t shown any more than the briefest of glimpses yet, you’ve got all the whispers about his attitude, to me it would be shortsighted not to have a backup option in place in case he does fail.
JSN is not the backup up option I’m proposing. For me he would work with Jamo and ARSB to form one of the best WR corps in the league. I like his value independently.
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This was a joke for those who were arguing with me. I’m just having some harmless fun.
Holmes did say Jamo was drafted for 23 and beyond. He also said he considers him an extra 1st round pick. And they said the reason they played him was for him to basically get his feet wet.
I agree with everything else. That’s part of my argument.
But anyway, my whole point is they drafted a WR 12th overall. So the “need” is filled. My opinion is no need for a 6th overall or early round pick on a WR.
That’s completely wrong but okay.
If you draft a WR at 6 that immediately diminishes the value of any WR you might consider at 18. If your WR are Chase and Higgins that also diminishes the value you place on WR prospects. Neither of those exclude the possibility of selecting another player at that position, but it definitely pushes the value curve of the position to the right
Likewise, even if you value a guy like JSN as the top prospect at his position, even with positional value that doesn’t push the value curve to the left. He is still only as good as he is.
You are right I shouldn’t use absolutes. I don’t see it happening from what I saw. Barring injury, I see him being at worst, DeSean Jackson.
Really like JSN, but not at 6. I haven’t seen anywhere suggest he is anything more than an elite slot. And yes I’ve heard ARSB wants to play outside, but who says that even works out all they well? He’s also an elite slot. I just assume leave him there.
We need an X receiver. So I personally don’t see JSN as a fit for us.