Wilson is still a good pocket passer, not great.
That’s really interesting. His body movements do seem quite similar to a Husky era Moon (the few clips I’ve seen).
But does he spin it like Moon. Moon threw such a
Aesthetically pleasing and catchable football.
I like Lance a lot too but have to admit I’ve never seen him play a game. But just off of highlights, posters here and Daniel Jeremiah’s Andrew Luck comp. I’m really intrigued.
I like this class better than I liked the ‘17 class at the time. I did like Watson but I had no real opinion on Mahomes. Certainly never expected this.
Hypothetically let’s say I give you Mahomes and Watson (at the time of the draft) over Lawrence and Fields. I don’t agree with that but just for the sake of argument.
Then presuming the rumored guys declare you have:
Wilson >> Trubustky
Lance >>>>>>> Kizer
Jones >>>>>>>>>> Webb
CJ Beathard was the sixth QB off the board in ‘17.
This is clearly a better class than 17. I think 18 was a better class than 17 at the time of the draft.
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As odd as it sounds, I’d be all in favor of Lance if we had Caldwell as coach. They need someone who works well with development of QBs. I’m not sure our new coach is going to be that guy.
He can answer for himself, but I believe when he pointed out that there are only a few franchise QBs in any given class (at most), he was directing his comment towards the top performers of the class and not career backups like CJ Beathard. I’m with you on Watson and Mahomes. To me Watson was the crown jewel of the class, and was a “rich man’s” Dak Prescott. When the Bears passed on him it blew my mind, but it was even more strange to see him keep falling. I had no idea who Mahomes was other than he was advertised as having the strongest arm in the class and I watched him on NFL Network on one of those shows having a throwing contest against David Carr and Mahomes could sling it but couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn.
One thing I like to remind people is that only once in modern NFL history (and modern goes back 60+ years for this) has all 3 of the first 3 picks at QB all gone on to become franchise QBs for the team that drafted them. And that’s being loose with the definition of franchise QB, where all the guy has to do is become the teams leading passer for a handful of years. Long enough to get a second contract. I feel like even if you are so-so, if they can’t find a way to replace you for 6 or so years that should count as a franchise QB…rather than get into the minutia of stats, win total and pro bowl selection type criteria. For instance Mitch Trubisky got benched, but managed to play just enough to lead the team in passing for a 4th straight season. So for my stat, he’s 4 years into being the Bears franchise QB. If he can lead the team in passing in 2021 and 2022, he counts as a franchise QB.
At any rate, the one time that its happened kind of deserves and asterisk because the teams technically drafted different QBs…but the class with Manning, Rivers and Roethlisberger is the only one that’s pulled it off. So everytime I see the draft I look at the top 3 QBs off the board and ask myself which one of them is going to bust. Because almost invariably at least 1 of them does.
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Thanks. I’ll watch the entire games when I get time.
I totally agree that some of these QBs are going to bust. I do think the hit rate is improving though as coaches become more willing adapt their offense to augment the young kids skills. I think that’s in large part to take advantage of the rookie contract window.
By most all accounts this is a historically good QB class depending on decelerations. I was just curious why he felt otherwise.
Almost every QB in every draft class is going to “bust.” Only a few at most will go on to become starters for any real period of time. Some classes like the 2013 class literally have NO starters in them.
But 2013 was thought to be a terrible class. I actually do think this is a year where we’ll see 2-3 stars come out of the draft. As I’ve stated many times before I’m terrible at projecting QBs so my opinion doesn’t mean much of anything.
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Having 3 stars out of the same class is an extreme outlier.
Until the rubber hits the road. I think there were only 10 QB’s even taken in 2017, but I still consider it to be a better class. The need for QB’s is greater this year so I expect more QB’s to be taken and they may be on rosters longer but I don’t believe that their impact will be as great, which is the real point. You are going on numbers that make it but not what they contribute. Somehow, Jake Ruddock seems to still get on some teams roster even if briefly every year. I see a lot of Jake Ruddocks out there that will be given chances and teams will try to “coach up” over the next few years but to what avail? We’ll see, it’s my opinion. I do think that there might be some 3rd to 5th round type choices that in the end could be the deal breakers, like Carson Strong and Jamie Newman.
I think coaches in general like some guys as backups because they seem football savvy and are good in the QB room helping the starter get prepared. I’m not saying Rudock is one of those guys, but there are some head scratchers at backup QB who have made a living being a bad option on the field but a good teammate and QB room guy. Dan-O was one of those guys. I just can’t picture myself bringing in a kid who is a wasted roster space if he ever had to play. If I want his brain, I’d hire him as a coach. To me a kid like Rudock was a borderline D1 starter who has no business on an NFL roster for any length of time.
Lance is likely to be the 4th QB drafted, so this could hold true and he could still turn out to be a star.
He could be the 2nd or 3rd QB drafted and he could still become a star. Let me give you some examples, if you assume that the 3 QB stat is always going to be true:
2020 - Herbert was the 3rd QB taken and looks like a star. If you believe Burrow is a star as well, that means Tua is fuked…or vice versa.
2019 - Kyler Murray is a star and the jury is out on Daniel Jones. The 3rd QB was Haskins.
2018 - Josh Allen was the 3rd off the board and is a star. Baker Mayfield is okay and looks like he might stick. That means the 2nd QB off the board (Sam Darnold) is fuked.
2017 - The 2nd and 3rd QBs were Mahomes and Watson, and they are both excellent. That means Trubisky is screwed.
2016 - The 3rd QB taken was Paxton Lynch, so that leaves breathing room for Wentz and Goff to both succeed.
2015 - This class sucked.
2014 - Sucked again.
2013 - Sucked again.
2012 - This one was interesting to watch, because I always assume the premise to be true. Luck was a stud from day one. That meant either Griffin or Tannehill was going to bust. As RG3 looked good early, I thought “poor Ryan.” But then Tannehill turned things around, and that’s when I “knew” RG3 was done. 
1983 - John Elway was the 1st off the board and Jim Kelly was the 3rd off the board. Poor Todd Blackledge was screwed at 2nd!!!
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Wow, that’s a weird first-round QB algorithm, but it seems to hold true.
I understand that. But IMO this is a historically good QB class along the lines of ‘83, ‘04, etc. it’s still a crapshoot of course. I remember how ‘95 was supposed to be an all time class but aside from Steve McNair and Kerry Collins (to an extent) it didn’t really work out that way.
2012 - Luck, Wilson, Tannehill, Cousins
1983 - Marino, Elway, Kelly and then depends whether you think O’Brien or Eason were stars for a period of time
2004 - there are four if Matt Schaub counts as a star at his peak. Though like Eason and O’Brien he probably falls just short
Its generally a crapshoot, but its also heavily influenced by where the kid ends up playing. So until we know where the kid goes and who the coaching staff is…sometimes its hard to project. Hell, I thought Chad Henne was going to be the next Carson Palmer!
The 1999 class was supposed to be one of the all time greats as well, with 5 QBs going in the 1st round. Only McNabb and Culpepper ended up doing anything of the 5 that went in the 1st round. I bet McNabb would have been a bust with many other teams, and alot of those QBs could have gone into Philly and had some success. McNabb was an option QB with good arm strength but had accuracy and footwork issues that Andy had to constantly stay on top of him about.
How much of this comes down to situation and coaching as much as qb talent?
How would Sam Darnold look now if he was drafted by the Bills and if Josh Allen to the Jets? Would both still be on their current trajectories still? Allen has most definitely benefitted from being around an excellent Head coach and an OC who had gotten the most of him. Lamar the same, he could easily have been a bust if drafted by another franchise.
Even Baker is a good case study in relation to this. His rookie year he was outstanding but then a coaching change and the whole team looked a rabble and he looked like he was heading towards being a bust. A different head coach and culture and he looks to be on track to being an above average QB again who should continue to improve.
That’s right. I remember thinking Tim Couch was going to be the bee’s knees.
For the record I have never been a Sam Darnold fan. I’ve never understood why teams thought so highly of him. He belongs on an NFL team. I’ve never seen him as a top QB. To me its like he’s been graded on a curve. I felt the same way about Jared Goff coming out. And as was pointed out earlier today by another poster, Goff was horrible his first season in the league. So much so that I absolutely forgot about it. Then comes McVay to make him look better than he actually is…to put it plainly. Situation actually matters, there is no doubt. Talent also matters. But in any given year there are only a few teams who have such a good situation that any QB can look good there…and its even more rare to have a kid that is so talented that he could literally excel with any team. It takes a mesh of talent and situation, and as fans we don’t know what we’re looking at until the kid gets into his career and we can evaluate his situation.
To be clear, the offensive coordinator that helped Baker look good his rookie year stayed in Cleveland and became the head coach. Kurt Warner went thru an analysis of Baker’s evolving situation in Cleveland. He showed where Kitchens was giving him easier stuff to read early on, and that’s when Baker was able to just sling it and have success. But then defenses started catching up, and Kitchens tried to evolve and give Baker more complicated reads and harder throws. Baker wasn’t ready for it, and honestly he might never be. I don’t think he’s ever going to be a guy that can make all of the throws and put a team on his back. Enter the next coaching staff, who decided to make Baker 2nd fiddle to the running game. Now Baker doesn’t have to put the team on his back and throw the ball 40 times a game. Instead of trying to be Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes, they’ve got him playing as Matt Schaub, Case Keenum or Jimmy G to throw out some names.
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