I agree with everything you say here, but I do expect Pacheco to be better than you think.
Time will reveal the truth, for sure… But we’re gonna have to wait on it
I probably believe in Pacheco a little more than most, though I am well aware that he’s not the same caliber as Monty
14… forgot about Fox
Pacheco will run more than you think.
Branch may as well be redshirted this season. Tore an achilles late. May need more than a year.
I hope so. But its hard to say. He’s got the physical gifts, but he’s always hurt. He was in the best situation with the Chiefs and they let him go and went big on Walker. Lions then sign him for dirt cheap. I always have hope, but until someone is good, they’re not good.
While your whole post is valid, it comes down to one thing for me: Luck.
We were the best team in the league, bar none, two seasons ago, and lost in the division series. Maybe we can be the 7th best team this year, but be healthy come playoff time? Get some good luck for a change?
Anyone else remember the Tampa game in 2025? Why can’t our D look like that more often? The cfl players were killing it.
The season will depend on the Oline.
Campbell, Petzing, Bru, and Goff, will be locked and loaded. The skill players are there and proven.
If we can field a healthy defense, we can get back to the playoffs, and, anything can happen from there.
I say 10-11 wins. I just don’t have the confidence that the defense can stay healthy. And they’re on their 3rd OC in as many seasons. They’ll be better than last year, but they won’t be back to where they were.
Last year was a disaster. No sugar coating it. It was a disaster. We went from 15-2 and the 1 seed with historically high injuries to 9-8 and missing the playoffs. That’s not a regression that’s falling off a cliff. Our defense still sucks, we will miss Monty, it still baffles me that we did not use him last year. We went 2 years in a row with Monty and Gibby both going for 1000 yards to Monty not even featuring. I am less than impressed with our offense season including the draft. The one pick I liked was Miller, I’m not impressed with the others. Cade Mays is solid but not impressive and it looks like a long year for Goff is upcoming. My absolute best case scenario is we go 10-7 and 2-4 in division. I think we get swept by the Packers and Bears and beat the Vikings. We definitely lose to the Bills and Patriots and I wouldn’t be surprised if we lose to the Buccaneers. If Kyler returns to form I think we get swept in the division. I see us going 8-9 to 10-7 maybe 11-6. I think we get the 6th or 7th seed and lose in the WC round.
Poop emoji!
So you think that this year‘s offensive line… This year‘s offensive coordinator… Playing the last place schedule… And having better health, is gonna be worse than last year?
Wowza
We had a second year of historically high injuries, this time with the entire secondary being hit, the entire TE room, and the weakest link on offense (the IOL). By historic we mean “Top 12 starter games lost” over the last two decades. Our squads were the only ones in that group to post winning records. Both times, the defense was above average until the injuries hit.
Last year’s offense was compromised in three significant ways. First, the surprise retirement of Frank Ragnow, who did us no favors with his timing and left us turning to the shell of Graham Glasgow to fill the void, who again couldn’t stay healthy. Cade Mays is no Frank Ragnow, but he’s no GG either; the key here (as with the entire team) is to stay healthy.
Second, the hiring of John Morton, whose mediocre game planning and abysmal people skills alienated the entire offense; he was so bad, he had to be demoted mid-season, pulling MCDC away from managing the team as a whole and mentoring first-year DC Kelvin Shepherd in particular. We’ll see if Petzing was the right hire, but the way the team is talking about him is vastly different from how Morton was initially received, and Petzing has a much better pedigree as well.
Third, the steep decline of David Montgomery, who fell to one of the worst backs in the league in yards after first contact; it’s quite likely his MCL injury at the end of 2024 was the root cause of his fall; he’s also at the age where RBs fall off a cliff anyways. In part this was (and is) mitigated by making Gibbs the bell cow. We’ll see if the much younger Pacheco returns to form after his own injury-marred seasons, but I see RB2 as less of a concern given how we’re using Gibbs now.
I think you’re overrating the division, too. Chicago needed an incredible amount of luck (against a weak schedule) to win the division, lost their center to retirement, and all of their playmakers in the secondary. Minnesota lost a lot of resources on defense, and does not have a reliable QB situation. Green Bay will be the toughest test, but they fell off a cliff themselves after Parsons’ ACL, and the first year of recovery after that injury often yields mediocre results (see McNeill, Alim).
If there’s a theme uniting all of this, it’s LUCK. We had terrible luck the last two years, and still did quite well. With even an average amount of luck (which we should expect, given the nature of luck) we will do quite well. We have a tremendous amount of talent on this team; you don’t post a winning record with the injuries we sustained without a tremendous amount of talent.
The trick is staying healthy. Always has been.
This is basically where I’m at. I think we’ll be “good” and will finish with a winning record and probably playoffs (though I think winning this division will be harder than it was last time we did it). I am not convinced that we have the horses to hang with the best teams in the league.
If (big if!) our OL returns to its dominant form from a couple years ago, we will be in every game and will clown some teams. But nothing I’ve seen on the other side of the ball makes me confident our defense will look any better than it did the last time we were contending, when it was our downfall. If (another big if) Alim is himself again, and Tyleik starts living up to his draft status, AND the rook or another DE pops off opposite Hutch, then MAYBE this defense could look championship-caliber. That is a lot of “ifs”–and the back 7 has even more question marks than our front. So while I’d love to be more confident, I’m not currently seeing how it all adds up to a super bowl.
I agree with much of this and will only add that in addition to Petzing the team also was able to land Kafka. Which was a surprise hire in my mind, but one I like as he is also highly thought of in the league.
First, there is no guarantee at all that we have better health. That is not a given. 2nd the “last place schedule” doesn’t mitigate the losses that I stipulated. The Patriots, Bills, Buccaneers, Bears, and Packers were not last place teams last year. We did not get better this off season. At best we stayed the same but that doesn’t help when everyone else improves. Our IOL Is still a massive liability. Mays is at best an average center and we have nothing reliable at either guard. I was less than impressed with either Rateledge or Mahogany. Our defense is not improved at all and we did not adddress it at all in the draft or FA (please don’t say that Derrick Moore is the answer at the other edge spot he’s not). The only draft pick that will help is Blake Miller. As far as OC is concerned there has to be serious questions regarding DCs ability to hire good people he has an abysmal record so far at OC. Everyone on this board knew Morton was not a good choice and Petzing does not inspire any confidence or excitement for this year. I stand by what I said. 8-9 to 10-7 at best with a WC loss if we get there. At some point BH/DC need to acknowledge that while their team building philosophy was great for turning the culture around it will not result in SB appearances or wins, really not anything more than consistently average. We need a strong Edge opposite Hutch, we need improvement at the IOL spots, and we need help at Safety. People are dreaming if they think Branch and Kerby are going to be back to normal ever again. That’s just straight wishful thinking and delusion.
Well, again, all speculation by you, which is great it is that time of year of course.
But you have no way of know if they did or didn’t get better on the OL or the DL. Obviously you believe they did not.
Time will prove you right or wrong.
Abysmal record on OC’s? Two bad one great. Abysmal seems a tad harsh but seems to be the lens you are using for the Lions.
We are going to kick so much ass that by the end of the season the whole team will have to wear Tom Dempsey shoes to preserve the health of their toes.
While we’ve had a lot of injuries, none of those has been to Goff. A lot of teams have seen their QB injured. We haven’t. Goff doesn’t take many hits, but football is still football.
Hi LionsfaninGA. Hope all is well down there.
First: You are correct that there are no guarantees when it comes to staying healthy. One hopes that the laws of average will swing back our way, but that is most certainly not a given.
Second: The schedule is what the schedule is. We have an assumed advantage over our division in a handful of games. Beats having an assumed disadvantage, but you still have to play your schedule and win. I see two challenging sections to our schedule. How we handle those two stretches will say a lot about where we are.
Third: I respectfully disagree that everyone else improved while we stood still. Our IOL may be a massive liability in your eyes. I see it as improved. If Mays is only average, then it is still a substantial improvement over last year. Rateledge going from rookie to second year “should” show improvement. Additions of Scruggs and Borom have been dismissed by many. I am not ready to outright dismiss either addition. I believe Scruggs will be better than many think once Hank gets ahold of him. Borom gets a change of scenery. I hope it does him good. But these players have all aged a year and the younger players will be improved by it.
Edge opposite Hutch is still a question in my mind. But 2nd round pick plus free agent isn’t the worst approach I have seen. Add in that June 1 cuts will be hitting today/tomorrow and there may be options that we haven’t considered. Until preseason is complete, the jury is out.
Peltzing is an unknown, but Goff has said some pretty positive things about the man. I am just going to wait and see how the early regular season goes before I make any sort of judgement here.
Regarding Safety, well we have traditionally played in a Safety friendly scheme. I will hope for Branch and Kerby to come back and play solid. I am not expecting either to play at Top-5 level. But it is impossible to know right now. We will see what they have in preseason and how our depth fills in the blanks.
The BH/DC approach has certainly been a positive from getting us from laughingstock to good. Going from good to great is a tougher challenge.
All in all, there are still questions about this team/roster. But I do not see a team/roster that doesn’t have some questions. It is the nature of the league. The biggest danger of comparative change analysis is that it is human nature to compare your opponent’s strengths/positives against your weaknesses/negatives, and it always looks worse than it is when you do that.
You have expressed your concerns. Many of them are things that we should all question and keep an eye on so I will not dismiss them out of hand. I just do not believe that all of the negatives will come to fruition any more than I believe all of the positives will. I believe this is a good team that has some challenges that must be met. I believe we do get into the playoffs, but I am going to keep my eyes on week 1 for right now. The Fates make you look silly when you look too far ahead.
And on the injury front, I really hope Dan stops playing guys in garbage time/meaningless games. I don’t believe he does it to inflate stats, not his style. I think it’s a tough guy thing. Time to take off the tough guy hat, and put on the smart guy hat.
Guarantee…no…but if you’re a math guy that knows about probability…fairly safe bet, especially taking depth into account
Speculation on both our behalf’s, but it suuuure seemed to matter last year. Bares was a reference to barely beating a lot of crap teams and having a better record that they most likely should have… just like last time Minnesota won the division…paper tiger.
Lions have been competitive multiple years in a row
Again, speculation on both of our parts… But I couldn’t disagree more, especially when you’re talking about the offensive line
Our offensive line is better than last year… Better depth, more competition… And theoretically more health.
Again, both of us are speculating, but take a look at who is in the majority in the minority with that opinion
I’m very comfortable with everything other than center, which to me is an unproven. Based on what I have read, should be a nice upgrade from last year. Last year we played a harder schedule, and had nine wins. This year nine wins would be a massive failure, and well below expectation. We got a lot younger, and that should help with injuries…. Theoretically.
On this, I have to admit that I was concerned the first time I saw him speak… And my concerns turned out to be legit. I think Pat Singh’s gonna be a massive upgrade… another reason we win 13 or 14 this year
To me, average is 8 to 9 wins. Since they have their roster constructed, we’ve had one season with nine wins… One with 15… And one with 12 I wanna say. Average seems like a pretty doom and gloom description to me… That’s just through my lens of the world though.
They have massively improved this team into something better than we’ve ever seen as Lions Fan’s. Super grateful, and expecting Super Bowls.
I will say this, though, I am someone who value values culture, attitude, psychology, brotherhood, leadership, etc., more than most. I think we have the best coach in the league, and I wouldn’t trade him for anyone.
I love getting differing viewpoints, and the way that it sparks my beliefs in what I have faith in… It’s healthy for me to think like me… You just activated this post in me, and I appreciate you
I am now deeply in a space of gratitude and very excited about how much ass we are about to kick