I think Robert Woods probably gets more attention on their offense.
He shouldn’t be, imo…total loser and anti-clutch
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I think most would agree that the Rams don’t have a “true” #1 WR… and yet they are still considered a possible Super Bowl team by some.
In 2019… Tyreek Hill got hurt early in game 1… but Chiefs went 4-1 in the first 5 games. They went 8-3 with him in the lineup.
In 2020… Odell got hurt early in week 7. The Browns were 4-2 with him playing… and went 7-3 without him.
In 1997… Jerry Rice tore his ACL and played in 2 games. The 49ers went 1-1 in thos games… and 12-2 in the rest. T.O. was only in his 2nd year… caught 60 balls for less tjan 1000 yards.
Good teams don’t have to have a true #1 WR to win.
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To me I am looking at a few guys who are now #1 WRs and what they didas rookie:
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Keenan Allen- 6’2", 211 pounds, 2013 3rd rd. pick, 15 games, 105 targets and 71 catches (67.6% catch rate), 1046 yards and 8 TDs. 2nd in targets to TE Gates. Did ANYONE thing 3rd rd. pick Allen would do that as a rookie? Nope.
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Cooper Kupp- 6’2" and 208 pounds, 2017 3rd rd. pick, 15 games, 6 starts, 94 targets and 62 catches (66% catch rate), 869 yards and 5 TDs. #1 target WR in LA. Did anyone see that coming in 2017? Nope.
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Stefon Diggs- 6’0",m 190+ pounds, 2015 5th rd. pick, 13 games, 9 starts, 84 targets for 52 catches (62% catch rate) with 4 TDs on 720 receiving yards. Anyone see that one coming?
Yep, we could list a ton of guys who were busts too. Point is we simply have no idea what Amon-Ra St. Brown can do here and we don’t know how many targets he will get. He is a great route runner. 6’1" and 195 pounds. In 2020 he played in 6 games. 41 catches on 57 targets (72% catch rate) 478 yards and 7 TDs. Folks said he had issues but DAMN that is fine for 6 games. Look at that catch rate and he was moved outside. You give him 5 more games and his stats are 75 catches in 11 games for 876 yards and 12/13 TDs. Pretty damn good. In 2019 he Amon-Ra had 77 catches on 103 targets (74.7% catch rate) 1,042 yards and 6 TDs. Can he be a #1? I don’t know but maybe.
Then we have 2nd year Cephus who caught 20 passes on 35 targets. His first game was ROUGH…10 targets, 3 catches. Taking out that game Cephus had 25 targets and 17 catches for a catch rate of 68% which is pretty good. Can he be a #1 here? Hell, maybe. We just don’t know.
We don’t know what this offense will look like but I bet OC Lynn has studied the Chargers offense as he coached there when they had Allen, Tyrell Williams and Keenan Allen. We have Swift, Hock and then our WRs. There is a LOT to work with.
Do we have a #1 WR? No one knows as we cannot predict what the offense will look like and we cannot know what targets will look like. But I think Hock and Swift will get a TON of looks. From there how do we factor in Amon-Ra and Cephus? My guess is Swift and Hock are top three each in terms of targets. And then there is opportunity. My guess is this staff LOVE Amon-Ra’s game and he gets a LOT of slot looks with Cephus having to beat out Perriman and Williams for opportunities in 3 WR looks.
I don’t think the Lions see WR as a huge issue right now and if I am OC Lynn I see Hock as a 90+ target guy. I see Swift as a 80+ target guy (he had 57 in 2020 for example) and from there the question is how we attack people and what Goff does with the football. I am thinking Amon-Ra ends up Diggs kind of season with 70-85 targets.
The question is can this offense be productive and get over 4,000 passing yards while being effective. I see Hock as a 850+ yard guy and I see Swift as a 550+ yards guy (he had 357 yards as a rookie). From there I think Amon Ra ends up just over 700 yards. If I am close to right that is 2,100 yards. Can we get 1,900 yards combined from Perriman, Williams, Cephus, Jamaal Williams and 2nd TE Fells? Oh hell yes as that is 380 yards EACH…no way Fells gets that but I can see Cephus, Perriman and Tyrell Williams getting 400-600 yards EACH (Cephus had 349 yards in 2020). If we give 500 yards each to Perriman, Williams and Cephus that is 1500 yards then round out that additional yardage of 200 yards each to Fells and #2 RB Williams and that is 4,000 passing yards which looks like this:
- Hoch at 850 yards maybe 105 targets. Hocj had 723 yards in 2020.
- Swift at 550 yards. He had 357 yards in 2020.
- Amon-Ra with 700 yards (less than Allen, Kuup AND Diggs as rookies). I think Amon-Ra ends up 3rd in targets. Less than Allen, Kuup and Diggs as rookies.
- Perriman gets 500 yards (32 yards a game average)
- Tyrell Williams gets 500 yards
- Cephus gets 500 yards (he had 349 in 2020)
- Jamaal Williams gets 200
- TE Fells gets 200.
That is 4,000 yards. 12 guys had 4,000+ throwing yards in 2020. Goff had 3,952. I think 6 of those teams made the playoffs. 4,000 passing yards is a mark we can hit ad if the running game is good the Lions could be a very, very tough out in 2021 even without a sure fire #1 WR.
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That’s what I meant by “participation trophy”.
He has no meaningful wins, a losing record, and quit the game in the middle of a contract, then had a hissy fit over money that he hadn’t yet earned.
His massive contract had a lot to do with the lack of “team” around him, and that contributed to his losing record and lack of meaningful wins.
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I don’t care, how many are there on our team?
Rarely works? So when Golladay went down it shouldn’t have changed a thing for us last season? If you don’t know how this works, just say so. And all you guys who think this group from “Misfit Island” are somehow going to cover up the problems of not having even legitimate #2 WR’s, you are really throwing shit on the wall and hoping something sticks.
“Yeah, I’m pretty sure there isn’t a #2 WR on our roster…”
Yep, I’m pretty sure you’re right.
Seems like you guys would get tired of trying to copy the Patriots
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I was just going to bring up Swift because IF we have good handed RB’s to ALSO use partly as receivers? Our opponents would have a heck of a time trying to defend that with our TE Hock, St Brown , Cephus, and any other productive WR’s we have that can catch and get YAC.
and we still have another offseason or two of building then a trim down to meet roster requirements before we have THE team they wanted to build to be competitive or even more dominant.
I’m not sure this team needs a #1 WR but they need at least a couple starting caliber receivers. I’m not sure they have that yet. Maybe they do with Williams. Hopefully. But that’s not enough to really put stress on the defense.
Look, we can have this conversation a million times but it’s still the same answer. The Lions are short at least one legit starter at WR this year. It’s ok, it’s a rebuilding year, and I expect it to get addressed next offseason for sure.
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Very good breakdown of the offense so far brother! I see it very similar. Running game, plus working the intermediate routes. This could end up being a very underrated offense. It all starts with establishing a legit rushing attack.
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I’d take 10-20% off the top, minimum, to account for injuries, net. Am including re-distribution to other receivers in my estimation. Some plays/players will disappear from the playbook due to availability/ability. If Hock goes down for any length of time, his yards simply cannot be re-directed to his No.2 TE Fells, who does not possess nearly the ability and attributes of Hock…Injuries happen. Depth is a major concern. Perriman is a walking injury waiting to happen. Williams isn’t far behind.
Sewell rated the No.1 Run Blocker in the Draft. Can’t wait to see him out in the 2nd Level on Screen passes to Swift yelling “Follow Me!”, running over LB/S…Highlight reel material Fo Sure!!..Sunday Night Highlights !!..Expect more 30-40yd TD runs by Swift following Sewell blocks to spring him on the right side.
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Yep,I’m not sure they do either. “and I expect it to get addressed next offseason for sure.” And that was my point about getting one in FA vs the draft, if you draft one then the waiting game starts over again for it to get going.
I agree they think what ever team wins SB we must copy what they do. This staff has a plan will it work we will see but if it required a #1 WR we would have drafted one.
The other teams still have to cover the speed we have or do you think cus they are not called a #1 by media they will not be covered?
We know that these guys have played pro game before an they are fast. They may not be shiney WRs like so many think we need but they have played the game before at pro level.
Like Head Coach said get open an Catch the dam ball thats all he asks. Perriman 6’2" an fast Williams 6’4" an fast both concerns is health but that can be said about the shiney WR’s also still need to stay healthy.
Other WR’s with experience fast except for Cephus an we know he has way to get open an very sure handed.
Are rookie will be major WR i have no doubt ( day he was drafted he was in his garage catching balls from a jug machine during draft. The machine was like 10 feet away firing the ball.
The UDFA WRs at least one I think makes roster maybe two.
This is not a shney group but what coach says get open an catch the dam ball.
If you looked at what I estimated, based on past availability, these numbers have mostly already happened.
Hock played in 16 games last season. Will he again? I don’t know but he did it last year.
Swift missed games and I don’t esp. a large bump for him.
Cephis missed games and I don’t have a huge bump for him.
Perriman has only played in 16 games once…but his 500 yards can easily be passed along if say he gets 350 yards and misses games. That remaining 150 yards can be spread out to others.
Tyrell Williams has hit that 500+ mark every season except his rookie season (he was an undrafted guy) and 2020. Tyrell is most likely our #2 WR and most likely to get to 700+ yards.
I am counting on a rookie and that is rare (look at Cephus). BUT…our QB has been productive with a rookie before and I think we got a steal there.
Past that I didn’t even include a 5th WR. a 3rd TE, or a #3 RB but I did include TE Fells. In 2020 for example Stafford got 974 MORE yards from his 7-12th targeted WRs. These guys are Marvin Hall, Sanu, Kerryon Johnson, Jesse James, Agnew and Adrian Peterson. I didn’t even include those kinds of plays but those depth guys might account for a 15-20% chunk of total passing yards.
I am laying out how not having a true #1 WR could still result in a kick ass passing attack if Amon-Ra has NFL game. But hell, if Cephus steps up and takes that role it is a wash. Still effective. If Perriman sucks and Tyrell Williams is good that can make up for that easily. 4,000+ passing yards is a modest goal and we can get there without having a true target hog #1 WR. ESP. of we are running the football well.
Deflection!!!
And agree with Luke we are 1 short. Although I think Tyrell will be the odd man out with Perriman emerging. Tyrell was getting peppered with targets early last year IIRC (no promises!) and it didnt work out well so Waller solidified an even bigger role, Agholor emerged. I see Tyrell as the #2/3 he always was with the Chargers when Keenan Allen was healthy. There were times he looked like an Allen clone but it was short lived and Tyrell has always regressed back to his mean.
To put it another way, I think we know Tyrell’s ceiling but not Perriman and he has potential.
The question is If We run ball like everyone wants to with this OL we don’t have to even get the yards you expect we could get with this WR group.
Also yards count more when they get them more than how many.
We have seen players get couple TDs an only say 50 yards total.
But those 3 or 4 catches for 50 counted for 12 points in a game.
When teams can run the ball you can pass an you don’t need a all star WR group to make yards.
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Again- somebody please look at the 2013- 2015 Vikes.
Somehow a flier on aging Mike Wallace, J Wright etc turned into a top 5 NFL WR corps in 2 years. UDFA Adam Theilen, 5th rounder Diggs and just as that ride ended for Diggs, came Jefferson with the Diggs trade comp.
I bet Amon-Ra has 650 yards as a rookie.
I like cephus for 550 yards year 2
That means we need 1200 yards between Permian and T Williams.
I personally think we get 1,000 yards from TE and 750 at least from RBs.
Add in some 100-150 yard guys and we have 4,200 yards passing. That’s what I’m hoping for.
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Tyrell didn’t play in 2020 due to his labrum tear.
In 2019… Tyrell did receive exactly 7 targets in 3 of the 1st four games… and caught 14 of 21 targets… for 187 yards (13.4 ypc) and 3 TDs in thos 3 games. He missed weeks 5 & 6 w/ plantar fascitis injury, and managed it for rest of season. He only had 2 other games with >5 targets… turning 12 targets into 5 catches, 109 yards, and a TD.
Waller did emerge in 2019… but Tyrell was also affected by injury. If he is healthy, his track record is pretty solid any time he gets 5+ targets in a game.
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