I mean, if 32 NFL front offices disagree with draft media, why do we trust the draft media player rankings over the 32 NFL front offices who probably do about 50 times as much work on this?
Well they used the draft media and mock drafts to access value if I am reading that correctly.
They are, but my point is that the premise is completely flawed because front offices do 50 times more work on each prospect than draft media. Judging more skilled people through the eyes of less skilled people makes no sense.
If 32 NFL front offices decide Christian Mahogany is a 6th rounder, and draft media decides he’s a 3rd rounder, the Lions didn’t get a steal, draft media missed something in its evaluation.
This kind of analysis should go the other way, how close were draft media big boards to what actually played out?
Draft media thought Aaron Roders was a top 3 pick, NFL front offices thought he was a late 1st. Future first ballot hall of famer.
You make a very valid point. So it would be very interesting to see a 32 team average player ranking overlaid with where a player was drafted. And overlay this same analysis. I would expect a regression to the mean. Which is to say that the spread overall would likely shrink. Also, I would rather see this analysis by removing the best and worst picks so you get it without the fliers. For instance no matter where or who drafted Manu he was going to be far far far to the right. Which is kind of silly. If you take him off the Lions draft, the Lions end up way ahead.
I think it would be super interesting as I bet some players will just be off some teams boards for multiple reasons.
Eh, mahogany isnt a good example. Mahogany is a steal. The rationale for his fall is interesting but it didnt bother the lions at all. It’s random. And it’s small. And its kinda funny that everyone else passed on him. Lions view him as starter in a year and the second best puller on the team as is behind sewell. It has nothing to do w skill at all…ur talking a future pro bowler.
But i get your overall point and there is merit to it. Front offices have alot more info at their disposal.
Sure. That’s one pick. And who knows what happens to Rodgers if he goes elsewhere and plays in year 1.
Bottom line is that NFL front offices do probably around 50 times more work on each prospect than draft media. It’s absolutely crazy to rely on the takes of draft media, they’re basically frauds. It’s like taking real estate advice from a kid who likes houses with pools and big gardens, they’re missing a whole lot of important stuff.
32 teams of experts let him fall. A bunch of amateurs who do a tiny fraction of the work that the experts do expected him to go on day 2. I’ll trust the experts over the half-assed amateurs.
I’ve seen a wide range of NFL front offices. A lot of them employed by the Lions have been a joke. Matt Millen? That guy didn’t even work hard at it. Then you got posters on this board that watch film like crazy. It’s all about the work you put in, and then if you can make good calls on that data. But if you don’t work hard, it doesn’t really matter how good you think you are. Have to do the work. So yeah, it’s much easier to work hard when you’re getting paid to do it. But it’s no guarantee that you will. See Lions as proof.
Did i say amatuers think he is a steal? I said the LIONS think he is a steal. I said the LIONS view him as the second best puller on the team behind sewell and a future pro bowler. Mahogany fell for a reason that is random. Not because he can’t play. Think about it, you heard about JPJ and the rumors, you heard about rattler and the reality tv show, even the random stuff about mitchell being uncoachable. You didn’t hear about the why for mahagony bc it’s random. It’s a “wtf for real?” Reason.
Yes, and his bust at Canton will be the first with matching tin foil hat.
I am pretty sure I saw a rant by one GM talking about players falling due to “rumors” about character issues and such.
I think at some point during the process you have to make a decision that you will stick with your board. And do not let outside noise deter you. I would assume most teams get hyper focus on a finite number of players. That they kind of sift through the pile and get a clear lock on a group of 30-90 players. Players that you really really like and fit into your draft position. And you make a decision that you will almost rather take no player than take anyone not on your list. And these players on your list you have to be 100% confident and comfortable on who they are and what they are about.
One of the things that I appreciate about the Lions is they are very upfront that the players they are getting from college are not plug and play. That they need to be developed both physically and mentally for the NFL game. So they are looking at these guys as clump of clay to be molded. When you think about drafting players with that mindset much of what the Lions are doing seems to make a ton of sense to me.
They are really looking for players that understand that all they work they have done to date is only half of what they will need to do to make it in the NFL. That the real work and development is about to begin.
AND the Lions have built trust within the team and the football world in general due to the players that are starting to come out the other end of their development cycles and plans. Makes a huge difference when you can say to a kid “do these things and trust me you will make it” and then that player can look at the Lions roster and see all the players that have followed and trusted the process that have made it.
I really love what the Lions have been doing.
Still worried about the Center position. Still think DE could have used to upgrading (but maybe Betts is a king). And worried the Lions have left themselves a bit vulnerable at the WR position. But I do appreciate what they are trying to do through actions and words. As a fan I just want to win at the end of the day. But watching it done in a manner that could mean long term solid teams makes it much better and takes the stress of each transaction way down. It used to be I felt like the Lions had to constantly hit homeruns to ever get better. Now I think they can take a single and turn that into a run so to speak. Which is new.
2023 - we had bad pundit value the day after the draft. And great value at the end of the year.
2024 - we have good pundit value the day after the draft. Lets let it play out, but it feels right.
Exactly. If the draft media were skewering the Lions, most of us would be dismissing them and rightly pointing to Brad’s receipts.
I think the right answer is that the pundits need to be mostly ignored, regardless.
Because over the years mock consensus has outperformed virtually every front office.
Crowdsourcing is absolutely a viable way to parse information, and I’ve heard rumblings that some people think Howie Roseman actually incorporates the consensus into his grades. Would make sense, that’s why he “wins” the draft every year. And he’s been quite successful with it as well.
One of the things that I think is not talked about enough from the draft of 23 is ranking of those players within their position group.
Brad drafted basically the #1 RB, TE, LB, and S off the board. So while the relative value to the overall draft was questionable the ranking within their postion group was not that disputed.
And I would argue he did the same with the CB action. Now after that they did not have high enough picks to take any other “firsts” although Manu has to rank as the 1st of something…LOL.
All I can think of is Ed “too tall” Jones from Dallas. So maybe he is the offensive version of him. Definitely much heavier LOL.
Brad Holmes said he had a pretty good idea of why he was available where he was, but didn’t want to talk about it publicly.
There’s a whole lot of stuff that front offices find out that draft media never catches wind of, just because there’s nothing in the media doesn’t mean there’s nothing.
I am aware of what brad said. There was a reason Mahogoney fell, I am saying (knowing what the reason is and what the Lions think on the topic) that he is a draft steal and future pro bowler and that using him as an example as a guy who the media has going early and dropping is a bad example. Brad had him going in the late second early 3rd round.