Lions 53-man roster prediction at the start of training camp

Holmes traded up 3 times in the 2024 draft.
Not for Wingo.
188 players were selected before Wingo.

Commish is a “Holmes” guy…. and a DC guy.
They signed him to a 2-yr deal…
after he played a season here and they wanted him back.
He was one of the first UFAs they re-signed March of 2023.

https://www.detroitlions.com/news/campbell-seals-deal-with-cominsky-i-m-dying-to-have-you-here

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They gave Texas 205 and 249 to draft Wingo at 189.
Only Rakestraw and Mahogany weren’t trade-ups.

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good call. forgot about that. :+1:

But… my point remains… there wasn’t much urgency to land him when they were trading up in the 4th round.

Yeah, that’s pretty interesting. It’s hard to say what that’s about. I mean, where a player gets drafted isn’t just a reflection of how much he’s valued by the organization, but also a reflection of where the entire league valued him – and how much the team understood that broader value. Look at Amon Ra. We drafted him in the 4th not because we thought he was a 4th round talent, but because we understood that was how the whole league felt about him – we anticipated he would drop that far, so we didn’t have to pull him in the 2nd or 3rd.

Both Wingo and Mahog were projected 3rd rounders before the draft, and they both fell to the 6th. You don’t need to urgently draft them if you understand that the league undervalues them.

As to Brad’s moves at DE – I think it had more to do with the lack of talent available in the draft and free agency (other than the expensive Hunter). If anything, I think it’s the addition of Reader that made it easier to focus on the secondary rather than on another end.

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The three in bold, I’m not sold on.

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I could see that.
Vildor seems like Moseley insurance. If Moseley is healthy, I could see Vildor on the PS.
Knight I see as a returner so Kalif can concentrate more on being WR 3/4.
I. Williams is a bit of a luxury, but one thing Holmes seemed to do this offseason was find insurance policies at almost every position group to be able to promote from within late in the season instead of signing street free agents when injuries ultimately occur. IW could be that guy at WR if Green doesn’t step up or anyone gets hurt.

There is a BIG difference between Holmes guys that he drafts and free agent signings.
Look at the results.
Almost all of his draft picks are still with the organization.
Holmes will cut his free agent signings without much thought.
It’s just 1st day, but Agude is repping in front of Commish according to Erik Schlitt of Pride of Detroit.
" In addition to the Lions incorporating more SAM work, Mitchell Agude contained to rep with the second team on the edge.
…While most of these players were expected to be in two-deep roles, it’s also worth pointing out that John Cominsky was surprisingly with the third team. After coming off a down season and taking a pay cut in the offseason, Cominsky was expected to be on the hot seat, but only reps with the three’s was mildly surprising".

It is a little different for Cominsky…

because he was claimed off waivers, played a year in Detroit, and the. was re-signed to a 2-yr deal.

That is more similar to Kalif Raymond than Brett Perriman….
in terms of bringing guys in as UFAs on 1-yr deals….
and then deciding they want to bring them back.

Agude might stick… But I have trouble believing that Houston, Betts, and Agude all make the roster. This staff seems to value the “base” DE too much to leave the roster thin at that spot.

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Agude seems to be playing Rush End as the primary backup to Hutch (Commish’s previous role).
Betts was repping at Sam LB behind Barnes and Houston.
I thought Betts heavier size (260 lbs.) would make a better Rush End than Sam LB.
AG may like Agude’s length (6’4") better at the Rush End.
Just 1st day and still without pads. Things can change day to day.
I will start taking reps serious after joint practices with Giants and 1st preseason game.
Coaches will have solid impression of players by that point.

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You keep going back to backup Rush as Commish’s role.
That’s not his role. He’s not a Rush LB / DE. He’s a closed End blocking inside among a sea of humanity.

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Cominsky’s value is that he can play 3 primary roles on the D-Line and even play NT in a pinch. He had been Hutch’s primary backup with Paschal and Okwara playing Big End. Commish would also get reps at Big End.
With competition at the Big End (and 3 Tech) position getting crowded with guaranteed roster players Davenport, Paschal, Wingo, and competition from Levi, Commish’s best chance is back at Rush End.
There will obviously be some crossover and cross training (especially as it seems Paschal is slimming down to be able to play both ends) but the places where Commish got most of his reps last year (3T and Big / Closed End) are likely filled.
I see the fight at backup Rush End.
As you mentioned. Commish is better suited for the Big / Closed End position or inside.
That is why I see him as the odd man out.
Commish is battling Levi, Betts, and Agude for 1 or maybe 2 slots between the 4.
If Betts is pigeoned holed at Sam LB he is out. I don’t see Holmes keeping an extra Sam behind Barnes and Houston unless he is a Special Teams Starter.
Commish would have to beat out Levi for the last 3T/Big End spot or Agude for the Backup Rush End.

That’s no shot at all. That’s not his game. At Rush I’d have Paschal, Davenport and Betts as all better.

He’s also no 3-Tech.

But, when we’re in Base, I don’t know who I’d want between Reader and Houston more. McNeil and Hutch on one side of Reader, Commish and Houston on the other.

If anyone can beat out Commish for that role specifically, it’ll have to be Levi and Wingo. Until they do, I have him making the 53.

Barnes has to show something consistently or his SAM work will be more off-ball than anything.

You know it’s a multiple defense when you can’t talk about one player without it involving 9 others.

I agree. That’s the problem for Commish.
You’re discounting Agude, but I understand. None of us have seen the kid play.

It appears that AG is going to use a lot more 5 man fronts but Barnes is going to get the bulk of those reps over Houston. He established his self in the role last year and Houston may be limited to obvious passing situations.
Paschal and Davenport are in front of Commish and he will have to compete with Levi and Wingo.

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~~Do we know who’s gotten 1st team reps at SAM? Today’s presser mentioned Houston on 2nd team.~

Nevermind. I see in Schlitt’s report that Barnes is SAM 1 right now.

Part of me wants to be able to pigeon-hole these guys into a “role”, but the 2 SAMs right now are:
Barnes, who plays SAM, MIKE and WILL
Houston, who plays SAM, Rush and DE

Put that on a spreadsheet and call it a depth chart!

I’d be surprised if Levi gets cut if he finally shows that he’s healthy and is playing at a decent level. Would just seem odd for them to show this much patience and then get him to where they finally might see his best only to cut him.

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Would love to sit in on the discussion with Coach Williams when it comes to the final cuts. His early interviews he talked about needing the team where he landed to trust what he’s saying on a player.

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The problem with Houston is that he is not playing Rush or Big End.
Houston just plays Sam LB2 and as a pass rush specialist in sub packages. And he hasn’t played Sam LB very well.
Furthermore, Houston is not a very good Special Teams player.
It is hard to get him on the field.

Both of you make valid points on patience also on coach Williams input on the DL.

I think Levi deal year4 is guaranteed right? @DeadStroke

But with the addition of Wingo and the talk of his position versatility, wouldn’t be that suprising if he took Levi snaps.

But to take Levi off the 53 that would be a mild surprise now agree

Nope, only 1st two years of his rookie contract were guaranteed.

I still think Levi makes the 53man though.

But all plays are not created equal. There are many games in which the game might tip on 1,2 or 3 3rd and longs. Having him out there on those plays makes a difference IMO. Or at least having the '22 version of him out there.

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