I appreciate a good spin …… but there’s really no way to make a claim at this point that the Lions won the trade.
Also, I didn’t claim Brad got Fleeced. I just pointed out the fact that we did indeed give up 3 - 3rds to draft him and that value is equivalent to a high second rounder.
I’m NOT one of the posters complaining. I’m merely correcting the misinformation.
I would say though that we did give up a lot to get this kid so expectations should be high. Clearly the Lions think highly enough
Just trying to be positive bro
Your right it is what it is
This is an excellent question and it needs its own thread.
A detailed example and question to raise debate would be interesting.
I think it’s pretty hard to be critical of BH with the access he’s had. The man deserves the benefit of the doubt. However I personally feel that the one area fans have a legitimate question is in his trade value compensation. My concern is that it’s not sustainable long term and at some point it’s going to catch up with the man.
I love the concept of going to get the players you want but you can’t end each draft in the negative on the trade value chart without it eventually catching up…. Right?
I feel like the more he misses the bigger this strategy becomes an issue. The more he hits the more this strategy pays off.
In the short term I get it and even like it. In the long term I’m definitely concerned where it could lead us.
I’d love to see how that thread turns out once everyone chimes in.
The key to your post is the “more he misses” portion, if you are referencing missing on the picks he does use for players.
To this point he hasn’t missed much and I’m including this year’s draft.
The talent level on the roster prior to this draft and after this draft remains high and somewhat young.
I don’t disagree that it is a valid point and discussion, just not one I’m overly concerned with due to the above point on current roster makeup.
Sure, I definitely have the details and have already laid out the 2025 and 2024 seasons in a spreadsheet. Just need to finish up the 2021-2023 seasons. Using both of the Jimmy Johnson and Rich Hill trade charts to compute the valuations, so it’s a bit of a process.
And now we have one more to add to the 2025 draft with the latest trade for Frazier.
I also just want to say that I agree with your premise that over the long-haul if you continue to lose on trade valuations you will end up hurting the make up of your team versus the team that consistently wins on trade valuation.
To me, it’s kind of like this whole concept that future picks are worth 1 round less in a current draft. In 3 years a player drafted in the 4th round is probably going to be playing at 4th round talent, and the player that was selected by the other team in the 3rd round is probably going to be playing at 3rd round talent.
So again, over the long-haul, you are diminishing the talent of your team if you habitually keep trading future 3rd round picks for current 4th round draft picks.
There’s a lot to think about on this subject and I’m sure a ton of good points to be made.
I’d love here the pros and cons to be honest.
Bottom line is that if Brad keep hitting on the latter rounds he will be fine…. But what happens when he doesn’t have any latter rounds left to hit on and he misses on an earlier round?
I REALLY don’t see this. Our coaches have one mission → WIN
They take the cats that are most likely to add as weaponry to win. With winning as the barometer, I’m guessing they wouldn’t care if we were ranked 32 in sacks, as long as we win the SB. I’d like to remind some folks that would likely have been the case last year, if not for crazy injuries.
…that said…
We have such good defensive backfield, not just in coverage, not just in run support, but in ball hawking too → we will be among league leaders in both INTs and Turnover ratio. This team will rarely turn it over, while forcing tons of turnovers.
We clearly are protecting Goffster, not only now, but long term. It was their #1 MO since bringing him in. His first year he was under heavy duress, his 2nd year, he was a GD surgeon and has been since. The Offense is our bread’n’butter, with the run game being the bread’n’butter of the bread’n’butter.
Defense will get coverage sacks, and does actually have a great DL with one area that is a touch softer. I think between Davenport/Z. Smith (who wants to be here), and the big end/DE tweeners, we’re all set to go to battle. Will they keep an eye on upgrading the position? 100%, as they do with all positions.
If BPA is a monster OL next year…don’t be surprised. LOL. Love Brad and the Super Bowls he’s bringing to our town.
If grandma had balld she’d be…? Right?
Do you think it’s coincidence that APR, Hussenein, Diggs, Rucker etc were all there late 6th…. He’ll we could still end up with Ivey, Diggs, Batty or Rucker and many would be happy with with a 2 edge haul each with great production.
I think Brad may know the boards better than the mockers do.
For two years Brad was able to pick players in the 3rd that are All-Pro, getting the highest the pay at their position even. Incredible players!
But not Brad is arguing NO ONE is out there that can be a Lion. We need X, Y, Z, the drive, the character, their board is only 17 guys from the whole draft.
Sounds like a lot of BS to me. Trading all those picks is so short-sighted and frankly I’m tired of the lie that their board is 8 guys and so we HAVE TO trade all our picks because everyone else sucks.
The Lions got their ASS handed to them by several teams with players that Brad didnt think were good enough to be drafted by the Lions.
Because he is far more serious about not having time to negotiate and is far more serious about getting his guy than a fake math problem Jimmy Johnson created in the 90’s.
If the Barometer is winning, Brad is CRUSHING all of them.
Brad as a short list of players, and if you’re not on it, we dont’ even want you. If your not gonna make th roster, why TF would we draft you, regardless of “expert” projection of draft position?
Pro tip for all → Brad IS the expert
This^
The Chiefs, Eagles and Tom Brady have had a monopoly on the SB for much of the past 10 years. lol.
We have the pieces to ensure the OL and hopefully WR stays great to elite.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Diggs or Batty in a few picks.
Wouldn’t it be funny if Brad got 2 super athletic DEs with a combined 20 sacks last year and got beat up all weekend for it?
That Panthers went back to back in 2 and 3, and their guys had a combined 15.
If we take Diggs I’ll laugh and smile.
2 guys with crazy production, culture fit and great RAS at DE after all of them crying.
As evidenced by every draft where an ‘expert’ graded him anything less than an A.
Nice rant.
Now back to the NFC North back to back champions picking in the 7th
More wins than any other team, swept the most dominant division in the history of the NFL, and had 20+ guys on IR throughout the season, including their 2 best defensive players.
First, if we’re gonna say Brad is getting fleeced, we shouldn’t look at Rich Hill or Jimmy Johnson, but the actual market as a whole for determining the “going rate” of such moves. Not an easy task, the market is constantly fluctuating.
Even if we see that Brad pays more, it’s not unreasonable to suppose that other GMs know that Brad loves his guys, and that they can leverage that foreknowledge into extra value. It may very well be the price of doing business, the price of success.
Another factor: trading up is where you lose value. Historically, we trade up. Everyone gets fleeced a bit when trading up, and if you’re always trading up, you’re losing more and more fleece. On the other hand, by trading down you’re presumably giving up a higher talent for more lesser talents. I’m not sure that’s a great plan.
@SirLion makes an excellent point that devaluing future picks isn’t sustainable, for precisely the same reason. But maybe it’s an acceptable risk, in moderation, when you’re trading low 3rds for high 4ths to get high-risk high-ceiling players. It seems for Brad a low 3rd is as much a trading chip as it is a lottery ticket.
On the other other hand, if you know who you want, it’s just a matter of figuring out how to pay for it; some picks aren’t lottery tickets, but sure things. To play your hand this way, your hit rate has to be awfully high. Like Brad’s.
I’m concerned that without next year’s 3rd round picks, we won’t be able to move up for our guys like we do. That’s when we’ll pay the piper.
In the particular case of Arnold, Jerry had publicly stated that Dallas isn’t interested in trading down for “equal” value
They demanded other team to pay premium to make it worth it for them .
Sometimes it be like that. Business too.
I just finished a complete breakout of every single “draft day” trade that Holmes has executed since becoming GM of the Lions. It’s really not as extreme as I thought it would be, although the draft day trades over the last 2 drafts (2025 and 2024) are nearly all value loses. So maybe some recency bias and giving up so many 3rd round picks is slanting my perception on this.
But if going back all the way to the 2021 - 2025 draft there are a lot of close valuations that you can’t really say is a lose or a win. And he was getting more value wins in those early days as well.
I’ll just leave it at that for now.
I know everyone is trying to enjoy the fruits of the draft right now and I don’t wanna continue to rain on everyone’s parade with my infatuation over value wins and loses.
Maybe a week or so from now I’ll throw up my results.
Appreciate your efforts.
I’m sure some were great deals (Kwesi Jamo)
Others fair
Others we paid a premium
@CuriousHusker said it best…Brad almost does like a heat check where he’s shooting from half court.
Regardless, if we have THREE elite WR with Gibbs and Laporta ….
Doesn’t matter that he gave up a point too much on the draft charts.
Teslaaaaaaaa Day 2 @DetroitvsEverybody