Goffs contract doesn’t magically vanish if we pick a QB. He’s signed through 2024. A 2OA qb who won’t play and will probably have at least two of the five seasons of rookie contract eaten on the bench actually gives us less overall resources to build the rest of the team for the next 2-3 years.
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Thank you for the reply.
Obviously enough, if the evaluation is that ‘at least 2 of the 5 seasons of a rookie contract’ is spent on the bench - he’s probably not worth the pick. But Brunell said after the Senior Bowl that he could coach one of the guys on his roster into a ProBowl candidate in that timeframe - so you and the Lions’ QB coach appear to differ in your evaluations.
Beyond that, I’m not sure how it gives us less resources unless you explain what your alternative plan would be.
Thank you for the reply.
Taking that QB in 2023, which portends to be better than the 2022 class, after the defense has been improved makes more sense to me.
Two quick questions …
1/ Assuming the class is better next year - how do you plan to get the guy you want?
2/ You can improve the defense in this year’s draft - but do you really think they’ll be one-player-away by the end of the '22-'23 season?
I think they want him here next year.
I think they would restructure and trade him the following (just guessing).
I don’t think the assumptions that “at least 2 years are gone” is even flirting with truth.
I think Goff would get traded AND bring a nice fetch of beans after one year.
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Stafford was not and is not an elite QB. He is a very good QB and I’m a big stafford fan.
He is and never will be on the same level as Mahomes, Brees, Brady, Peyton, Herbert, Allen, etc. he is a top 10 QB, but not too 5 type of guy.
Regardless, with Stafford this team was competitive almost every year despite an abysmal roster at times. Every time he got hurt you saw how truly awful this team was.
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Brunell was speaking hypothetically. Also it’s possible that we could pick Willis at 2OA, bench Goff and Brunell shapes Willis into a Pro Bowl QB over the next two years
But your post was about resources for the next two or three years and particularly the ability of a team to build non-qb resources when a starting QB is on a relatively inexpensive five year rookie contract. But like mentioned, Goffs still under contract. His dead money this year would be 30.5 million. 10 million in 2023 and 5 in 2024.
This all but assures either Goff is the starter this year and probably next. Or the Lions eat a ton of dead cap to start a young QB we spent very high draft capital on. This scenario is literally the opposite of having more resources for the rest of the team. We don’t take the blue chip DE at 2OA and we either sit the new QB, eat a fistful of dead cap or have the most expensive backup in the league
The point is Goff carries a significant cap number until 2024. In 2023, his cap number is 30 million. We would still likely need to eat a bunch of cap if we restructured and traded him. If we just cut him before June 1st, it’s 10 mill in dead cap
I’m not saying this definitely won’t or couldn’t happen. But it’s not going to open up cap resources. It’s going to be a financial ouch
So, you think one of these guys, or Willis, is the next Matt Stafford?
It’s not that I don’t agree with your premise. I do.
The thing is, if you don’t have the right QB in place, you’re going to have to draft another one and it pushes your window back.
I’m not sure what you mean by Brunell was speaking ‘hypothetically’.
In terms of resources - I’m not saying that my model comes for free. If you want to offer an alternative model to address the QB that you think is cheaper and has a good chance of success - I’m more than happy to hear it.
hy·po·thet·i·cal·ly
/ˌhīpəˈTHedəklē/
adverb
- by imagining a possibility rather than reality; as a hypothesis.
“we talked hypothetically about how cool it would be if we moved”
“if I worked a raw QB prospect like that, I bet I could make him a pro bowler within a few years, mused the coach”
Here’s an alternative model: We don’t draft Willis at 2OA
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Trent Dilfer. He isn’t recent, but 2000 lol
The thing is, if you don’t have the right QB in place, you’re going to have to draft another one and it pushes your window back.
I agree completely.
My point is that if they can afford to fail with a QB this year in a way that I don’t think they can in the future precisely because the longer they leave it the more expensive they will be and the narrower the window becomes. It’s cheap to do it this year - if it doesn’t work out in 2-3 years - they still have time to take a second shot at an established veteran. They could trade for Stafford even! It’s obviously not a free swing but it’s the closest they’re going to get to one.
There’s an interesting article in The Athletic today - that speaks to 10 Draft Commandments that states, ‘Missing on a quarterback evaluation in the first round isn’t what cripples a franchise. It’s sticking with the quarterback for too long or paying a mediocre QB high-end money that is problematic.’
Obviously, people are free to disagree with that. Or think that WIllis or whoever is too much of a long shot. My point is really it boils down to the Lions’ own evaluation. But from a bird’s eye view of the rebuild as a whole - there are structural reasons that make a QB appealing this year.
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Can you clarify how any evaluation of a draft prospect is anything but hypothetical?
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From the NFC, the 2020 & 2021 Pro Bowl reps were:
2020: Jaire Alexander, James Bradberry, Marshon Lattimore, Jalen Ramsey
2021: Trevon Diggs, Stephon Gilmore, Darius Slay & Lattimore
Is Oruwariye at that level? Not yet.
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I think he is elite. I think he’ll be HOF.
Elite arm strength.
Elite handsomeness.
Elite leadership.
…getting more elite all the time too. 
If Matt played his entire career in Brady’s situation, Mahommes’s situation, etc…I truly think everyone would be calling him elite.
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ok. evaluations are evaluations. applying the evaluations to a situation is hypothetical
example 1: (not hypothetical) This young QB has a great arm and runs an excellent 40 but struggles with accuracy and scanning the field. And sometimes runs prematurely from a clean pocket
example 2: (hypothetical) If I, as a coach, were able to coach this young prospect, I bet I could make him a pro bowl caliber player within three years
Brunell can make this observation in abstract, irrespective of the Lions cap realities and roster makeup. Hence, it’s a hypothetical observation
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During the early part of his career, including the 2011 season, I would agree.
From November 15, 2015 forward, I somewhat disagree. When there haven’t been a ton of injuries to the supporting cast, and Stafford himself wasn’t injured, Stafford has been near elite since then–in the top 5-10 range.
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A few days ago, there was a topic on this board that was congratulating our brass for playing it close to the chest. Some of us were also saying showing no interest in Willis might mean that they really do have interest in Willis. I pointed out that if we can figure that out (i/e/ that showing NO interest, rather than doing ‘due diligence’ ) other GMs would as well. And the thread dissolved into the realization that this is all layers and layers of smokescreens.
Now we’ve invited him here…which could mean nothing at all, or it could mean alot. I’m thinking it means alot. They are probably realizing (a) the trade down offers just aren’t there, (b) ANY pick - Walker, Thibs, Sauce, Hamilton, a WR, etc… has alot of risk this year, so why not take a QB risk (where the reward could be higher), and/or (c) there might have been some residual questions after our pro-bowl week with Malik that they’d like to answer. And let teams think what they want, maybe this is a rare case in which a trade offer happens AT the pick in question, rather than one alot above the pick.
I think its happening. We’re drafting Willis. If we stay at 2. I think the conversation with Malik is: Unless we get a trade offer that knocks our socks off, get ready to be a Lion. Here’s what we expect from you…
Who knows, maybe the Jets want Walker or Hamilton, and we have the 4OA pick and feel better about taking Malik there.
We need to trust the process. We still have alot of picks to address D. Get on the Malik WIllis train!
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The line on the Lions next year is 6.5 wins. This year that would be the 7th overall pick
I haven’t dived deep into next years QB class and undoubtedly there will be some ascending talents. But currently the third ranked prospect is Anthony Richardson from Florida. Kind of taking the opposite track of Willis who left the SEC to start at a small school, Richardson left a small school to start at the SEC
Currently he’s projecting to be a upper-mid first round pick and the Lions may be there. But the kid also has a lot of work to do and needs to improve on the consistency of his accuracy next season. But if you look at tools alone, he has a cannon arm, is bigger and a better runner than Willis
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